Lutz’s Locks For Week 4 Of The NFL

Broncos vs Bills Prediction & NFL Odds For The Wild Card round

ByUSA Wager

The Broncos are +358 on the money line as they take on the Bills in a Wild Card round matchup at 1:00 ET on Sunday, January 12th. The game, being played at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY, is heavily in Buffalo’s favor, with the Bills at -468 on the money line and -8.5 point favorites. CBS is handling the television coverage, and the over/under line is set at 47 points.

Prediction at a Glance for Bills vs Broncos

  • We have the Broncos winning this one by a score of 32 to 19
  • Not only do we have the Broncos winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +8.5
  • Look for this game to go over the line of 47 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Broncos +8.5 | Bills -8.5
  • Total: 47
  • MoneyLine: Broncos +358 | Bills -468

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Broncos vs. Bills Prediction: MoneyLine

Heading into the Wild Card round, the Broncos sit 16th in our offensive power rankings. They are 10th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 25, and 19th in yards per game, with 324.6. Denver ranks 20th in passing yards per game (212.4) on 33.5 attempts per game, and they are 16th in rushing yards per game, averaging 112.2 on 27.1 attempts.

In week 3, Bo Nix threw for 216 yards, completing 25 of 36 passes without a touchdown or interception. Courtland Sutton led the team with 7 catches for 68 yards, and Tyler Badie had 70 rushing yards on 9 carries. Denver converted 30.8% of their third-down attempts (4/13) and scored on 2 of 4 red zone trips.

Josh Allen has been on fire to start the season, posting a passer rating of 107 in week 2 and 137 in week 1 before his 142 rating in week 3 against the Jaguars, where he threw for 263 yards and 4 touchdowns without an interception. Allen has also done a good job avoiding sacks, going down twice in week 1 and not being sacked in weeks 2 or 3.

Khalil Shakir led the Bills in receiving in week 3 with 6 catches for 72 yards and a touchdown. James Cook rushed for 78 yards and 2 touchdowns on 11 carries in week 2, and Allen led the team in rushing in week 3 with 44 yards on 6 carries.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Broncos +358 (Bet Now)

Broncos vs. Bills Prediction: Total

Denver’s defense was outstanding in their 38-0 win over the Chiefs, allowing just 98 yards and forcing Kansas City to go 1 of 9 on third down. The Broncos’ secondary was particularly strong, holding the Chiefs to just 71 yards passing and a completion percentage of 58.8%. They also didn’t allow any points and limited the Chiefs to 27 yards rushing on only 11 attempts.

Additionally, the Broncos’ pass rush was relentless, finishing with five sacks and generating a lot of pressure, as evidenced by their +9 advantage in the quarterback hit differential.

In their 23-16 loss to the Patriots, the Bills’ defense allowed 232 passing yards on 22 completions. Despite this, they did hold New England to 33.3% on third down conversions. Buffalo gave up 77 rushing yards on 30 attempts, and their secondary allowed a completion percentage of 73.3%.

Buffalo’s defense managed one sack and had more QB hits and tackles for loss than the Patriots. However, they did give up one passing touchdown and 309 total yards in the game.

  • Free Total Prediction OVER 47 (Bet Now)

Broncos vs. Bills Prediction: Spread

Denver finished the regular season with a 10-7 record, placing them 7th in the AFC. They went 3-3 in division games and 6-6 in conference play. After starting the season 17th in our power rankings, the Broncos are now 14th. Against the spread, they are 12-5, including an 8-0 record as favorites. Their O/U record is 11-6, with their games averaging 43.3 points compared to a 41.3-point line.

In week 18, the Broncos bounced back from two straight losses with a 38-0 win over the Chiefs. They easily covered the 11-point spread. In weeks 16 and 17, Denver lost to the Chargers and Bengals, failing to cover in both games.

  • Over their last three regular season games, the Broncos have gone 1-2 straight up. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 1-2 and an over-under mark of 2-1.
  • Through their last five road games, Denver has an ATS record of just 2-3. However, their overall record was 1-4 while averaging 20 points per game.

Buffalo finished the season 13-4, securing the AFC East title with a 5-1 division record. They went 8-0 at home, including a 47-10 win over the Jaguars in week 3. The Bills bounced back from two straight losses in weeks 4 and 5 with three consecutive wins, including a 31-10 victory over the Dolphins in week 2 and a 34-28 win over the Cardinals in week 1.

Heading into the playoffs, Buffalo ranks 4th in our power rankings and has an average scoring margin of +9.2 points per game. They are 10-7 against the spread and have an O/U record of 11-6, with the over hitting in their last two games.

  • Spanning across their last three games, Buffalo have gone 3-0. In terms of betting, the team went 2-1 ATS in these matchups. Their over/under record in these matchups is 1-2.
  • In their last five home games, Buffalo has averaged 33 points per game while allowing 27. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-2 while going 3-2 vs. the spread.
  • Free Spread Prediction Broncos +8.5 (Bet Now)

Broncos vs. Bills Pick: Broncos Moneyline (+358)

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Broncos to cover as road underdogs in this week one matchup vs. the Bills. The point spread line is currently at +8.5 in favor of the Broncos, and we have them winning by a score of 27-23.

For the over/under, with the line sitting at 47 points, we are leaning towards taking the over, with a projected combined score of 50 points.

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