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Falcons vs Commanders Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 17

ByUSA Wager

On Sunday, December 29th, the Falcons and Commanders will face off at 8:20 ET on NBC. The Commanders are favored at -204 on the money line, and the Falcons’ money line odds are +171. The Commanders are -4 point favorites, and the over/under line is set at 47 points. Both teams are looking to improve their records in this week 17 NFC matchup at Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD.

Prediction at a Glance for Commanders vs Falcons

  • We have the Falcons winning this one by a score of 31 to 23
  • Not only do we have the Falcons winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +4
  • Look for this game to go over the line of 47 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Falcons +4 | Commanders -4
  • Total: 47
  • MoneyLine: Falcons +171 | Commanders -204

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Falcons vs. Commanders Prediction: MoneyLine

Heading into week 17, the Falcons rank 15th in our offensive power rankings. They are 19th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 21.8 points per game, but sit 9th in yards per game with 360.9. Atlanta ranks 6th in passing yards per game (236.5) on 32.4 attempts per game, which ranks 14th. On the ground, they are 12th in rushing yards per game (124.4) on 28.9 attempts per game. The Falcons are 15th in the league in 3rd-down conversion rate at 38.4% and 10th in red zone conversion percentage.

In week 16, Atlanta scored 34 points in a win over the Giants, with 17 points in the 2nd quarter and 14 in the 3rd. Michael Penix Jr. threw for 202 yards (18/27), while Bijan Robinson rushed for 94 yards and 2 touchdowns on 22 carries. Darnell Mooney led the team with 5 catches for 82 yards. The Falcons converted 8 of 14 3rd-down attempts and scored on 2 of 4 red zone trips.

Heading into week 17, the Commanders are 4th in the NFL in points per game (28.8) and 5th in yards per game (373.5). They have focused heavily on the run game, ranking 4th in rushing attempts and 3rd in rushing yards per game (152.7). On 3rd down, they are converting 45.5% of the time, which ranks 6th in the league. Despite being 2nd in red zone attempts, they are just 28th in conversion percentage, scoring on 6.5% of their trips.

Jayden Daniels threw for 258 yards and 5 touchdowns in week 16, with 2 interceptions. He connected with Olamide Zaccheaus 5 times for 70 yards and 2 touchdowns. Daniels also rushed for 81 yards on 9 carries. The Commanders scored 22 points in the 4th quarter to secure a 36-33 win over the Eagles.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Falcons +171 (Bet Now)

Falcons vs. Commanders Prediction: Total

Atlanta’s defense was dominant in their 34-7 win over the Giants, allowing just 45 rushing yards on 13 attempts. The Falcons’ pass defense was equally impressive, giving up only 189 yards through the air. They picked off two passes, held the Giants to a 56.4% completion percentage, and limited them to a 33.3% conversion rate on third down.

Despite allowing 234 total yards, the Falcons were tough to move the ball on, as the Giants averaged just 3.5 yards per attempt. Atlanta also recorded three sacks and won the QB hit battle by four.

In their 36-33 win over the Eagles, Washington’s defense gave up 211 rushing yards on 39 attempts but held Philadelphia to just 127 passing yards. The Commanders’ defense recorded four sacks and limited the Eagles to an 18.8% conversion rate on third down. Despite the high rushing yardage, they were effective in limiting big plays and keeping the Eagles out of the endzone late in the game.

Washington’s defense also came up with one interception and allowed the Eagles to complete just 15 passes (53.6% completion percentage). Their 127 yards allowed through the air came on an average of 4.5 yards per attempt.

  • Free Total Prediction OVER 47 (Bet Now)

Falcons vs. Commanders Prediction: Spread

Atlanta snapped a four-game losing streak with back-to-back wins, including a 34-7 victory over the Giants in week 16. The Falcons were favored by 9.5 points and easily covered the spread. Before that, they narrowly defeated the Raiders 15-9 in week 15, bringing their record to 8-7 and putting them in first place in the NFC South.

Our projections give the Falcons a 48.3% chance of winning the division and making the playoffs. They rank 21st in our power rankings and have an average scoring margin of -1.5 points per game. Against the spread, Atlanta is 6-8-1, and their O/U record is 5-10.

  • Atlanta has put together a record of 2-1 over their past three games. Their record vs the spread in these matchups is less impressive at 1-1-1, while posting an over-under record of 1-2.
  • In their last five games away from home, the Falcons have a straight up record of 2-3 while going 1-3-1 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 18 points per game in these contests.

Washington heads into week 17 on a three-game winning streak, including a 36-33 victory over the Eagles in week 16. This win improved their record to 10-5, putting them 2nd in the NFC East and 7th in the conference standings. Our projections give the Commanders a 93.6% chance of making the playoffs, but their chances of winning the division are just 1.6%.

Washington has an average scoring margin of +5.6 points per game and is 9-5-1 against the spread this season. Their O/U record is 10-5, with their games averaging 52 combined points compared to an average line of 46.1.

  • Through their last three games, the Commanders have a record of 2-1. In addition, their ATS record over this stretch is 2-1 while posting a 3-0 over-under mark.
  • In their last five games at home, the Commanders have a straight up record of 3-2 while going 2-2-1 vs the spread. The team averaged 26 points per game in this stretch.
  • Free Spread Prediction Falcons +4 (Bet Now)

Falcons vs. Commanders Pick: Falcons Moneyline (+171)

Our pick vs. the spread in this week 17 matchup between the Falcons and Commanders is to take the Falcons to cover as road underdogs. Right now, the point spread lines have the Falcons at +4, and we have them winning 26-25, making them a great pick vs. the spread.

For the over/under, with the line sitting at 47 points, we have a predicted combined score of 51 points, making the over a great pick in this one.

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