UFC 264 Poirier vs McGregor Prediction

The biggest event in MMA history is just 4 days away. On Saturday, July 10th the Poirier vs McGregor trilogy will be held at T-Mobile Arena in front of a sold out Las Vegas crowd. 

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Trilogy Preview

This fight is a fight of “ifs”. These are two dynamic successful mixed martial artists going head to head with both most likely competing for a title shot and to cement their legacies.

Conor McGregor is just coming off of his first knockout defeat in his pro career, he is 1-2 in his last 3 fights, and he is fighting for his legacy.

Dustin Poirier on the other hand, is coming off of a revenge knockout on McGregor, the biggest paycheck of his career, but did pass up the title fight for this trilogy fight.

I feel that the whole McGregor being unmotivated to fight is a false narrative. Yes, McGregor is now rich, but he could have walked away from the sport after the Cerrone fight with arguably one of the best UFC careers of all time. He does not need to fight for the money. When McGregor has lost in the past he immediately feels an urge to avenge his loss just like he did with Nate Diaz. Conor is definitely going to be dedicated and driven to win this fight.

Dustin has stirred up a bit of beef with Conor since their Twitter tirade after the second fight. I think this was a mistake by Dustin because when Conor is in his element talking smack and genuinely dislikes who he is fighting that is when we see him at his best. We saw it with Jose Aldo, Nate Diaz II, and Dustin the first time.

Knocked Out

The knockout may be looming in the back of Conor’s head especially with it being his last fight and the same opponent. Poirier on the other hand is going to have all of the confidence in the world after dismantling McGregor in the fashion that he did.

In the second fight I think Conor actually looked like the sharper striker in the first round. He wobbled Dustin pretty badly but did not attack. 

Dustin’s tactical approach with the calf kicks was extremely smart considering Conor had adopted a new boxing stance in which he was heavy on his front leg and not bouncing around like he used to which had enabled him to scoot out of range of the leg kicks. 

Poirier vs McGregor Prediction | Breakdown and Picks

I think Conor is the better martial artist as a whole. Poirier may be the more powerful man, but I think Conor is sharper as a striker.

Another huge part of the preparation for this fight is adjustments. McGregor is going to have a lot to learn from and I think he will make the correct adjustments to avoid the leg kicks.

I think one downside for Dustin is he does not have much to adjust to. But I don’t think he will be able to just come out and chop down Conor’s legs again. There was not much for Dustin to learn from after the fight.

Statistics do not play a huge role in this fight, it is going to be more who mixes up their style enough and lands the cleaner shots. 

Another big question is has Conor improved his stamina? He claims he has, but we have not seen him go more than 2 rounds since a 2018 loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov. Fatigue has been a big issue in Conor’s career he has fallen off in later rounds of his fights that have gone past 2 rounds. If his stamina can hold up I think he is at a huge advantage.

I think Conor is going to do what he must to prepare himself for Poirier and the leg kicks. I think he is going to me more motivated than ever to get back in the win column and make one last title run. I tend to like Conor as an underdog here. I think he just provides more value in an evenly matched fight.

Bet McGregor to get back on track.

Poirier vs McGregor Prediction: Conor McGregor (+110)