Injuries, Suspensions, and Violating Personal Conduct, NFL Week 3 Key Updates
As week 2 came to a close Monday night, teams are dealing with injuries, fines, and suspensions. The 49ers and Chargers, two west coast teams, are dealing with injuries at the NFL QB position. Trey Lance suffered a season-ending ankle surgery at the end of the first quarter vs Seahawks week 2. Luckily for the 49ers, they will be cashing in on their insurance blanket Jimmy Garoppolo. While just South of Levi Stadium, QB Justin Herbert may have escaped a serious rib injury while taking a beating late in the 4th quarter against the Chiefs. He was later diagnosed with a fracture to the rib cartilage. Herbert’s status for Sunday’s NFL game is unknown.
NFL Unsportsmanlike Conduct and NFL Personal Conduct rules were violated Sunday and have key players out for the Bucs and Chiefs. The biggest NFL surprises announced Tuesday were the suspensions to Buc’s WR Mike Evans, and ILB Willie Gay Jr. of the Kansas City Chiefs.
Early Spreads and Deciding Line Movement
Chiefs vs. Colts has seen the most movement from -2.5 to -6.5 on BetMgm. This movement does not come on the news of Willie Gay Jr.’s four-game suspension for violating the league’s Personal Conduct Rule but the performance of the two teams in the first two weeks. The Chiefs have started off 2-0 with strong NFL performances over the Arizona Cardinals (44-21) and the Los Angeles Chargers (27-24), while the Colts put up a poor performance tying the Texans while putting up a goose egg (0) against the Jags. No surprise the books made the adjustment while the public bets heavily on the Chiefs. Watch out for the number to cross the key number -7. Money might start pouring back in on the Colts. Teasing the Chiefs down to -1 with a 6-point NFL teaser will be on everyone’s parlays.
Jags vs. Chargers have the most natural elasticity based on the eye test. What did everyone see this past weekend? The Jaguars showed up and put a stomping on the Colts 24-0, while QB Justin Herbert and WR1 Keenan Allan are both questionable for Sunday’s showdown. The line has moved 3.5 points, opening up -10.5 to -7. Expect for that spread to narrow if Justin Herbert is ruled out.
Packers vs. Bucs line has not moved with news breaking of WR Mike Evans 1 game suspension for his involvement in the fight vs. the Saints. When it comes to injuries and suspensions, the books will not adjust the line more than 0.5-1 depending on how impactful the player is. In the case of Evans suspension, it made the matchup between Brady and Rogers even more of a “pick ’em” game, although Tampa Bay is still favored by -1. Keeping in mind -3 points are usually given to the home team for home-field advantage.
49ers vs Broncos on SNF! An awesome matchup if it was 1990 and we were watching Montana vs. Elway. However, it’s 2022, and the former- oh, I mean current- starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo gets the call. Jimmy G. will be facing the incompetent 1st year Head Coach Nathaniel Hackett and 1st year with the team QB, Russel Wilson. To be fair to Coach Hackett, it’s only been 2 weeks. This line actually flipped from when it was first posted by BetMGM. Not often the starting QB goes down and their team then becomes the new favorite. What’s that say about Trey Lance? Not good! The 49ers went from a +2.5 underdog to -1.5 favorites.
Get Your Ticket Early
If you’re new to NFL betting, then you’re most likely putting your bets in the sportsbook or using your BetMgm app from the palm of your hand the day before or day of the game. However, if the bettor wants to maximize their odds they should place their bets before the public has time to make wagers and the bookmakers readjust the lines. Bookmakers readjust the lines to make the spread more accurate, making it more difficult to beat the house.
One downside to early MFL betting is the unknown. Not knowing who will be dressing up to play underneath the lights come Sunday. There is always the risk of injury or sickness. This really came into play the previous two seasons with Covid19. However, the players do not make that much of an impact on the lines. Unless your name is Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, or Tom Brady, bookmakers generally will stay put or maybe move the line 0.5. QB holds more weight than a WR, RB, LB, etc., regardless of the talent. If Mahomes goes down and Chad Henne starts vs the Colt, the bookkeepers would be quick to move the line back closer to -2.5.
