Taphorn’s Twelve Pack NFL Week 11

Week 10 Record: 2-4; -2 units; Year-to-date Record: 36-23-1; +9.0 units

6 Bets I Like:

1. New England Patriots -6.5 at Atlanta Falcons. Mac Jones seems like he’s been fully trained in the ways of the dark side by this point. The rookie has taken command of the offense and the Patriots are starting to look scary. Add in a healthy rushing attack and a menacing defense and Bill Belichick is returning to rule the galaxy. Bet amount: ½ unit.

2. Green Bay Packers -1.5 at Minnesota Vikings. Aaron Rodgers vs an NFC North opponent. Go ahead and chalk it up as a victory. The Vikings have found their way to a touchdown lead in each of their games but are 4-5 on the season. Not a great look for a coach on the hot seat. Aaron Rodgers shakes off his COVID rust and the Packers win by a touchdown. Bet amount: 2 units.

3. Dallas Cowboys +2.5 at Kansas City Chiefs. Dallas is 8-1 against the spread, the Chiefs are 3-7. Mahomes and his buddies found their rhythm last week against the division rival Raiders, as did Dallas after a tough loss to Denver. This game has the potential for a lot of points and should truly be America’s Game of the Week. Might be worth an over play as well (56 points). Bet amount: ½ unit.

4. Miami Dolphins -3 at New York Jets. Joe Flacco is getting the start for the Jets this week with Zach Wilson being hurt and Mike White throwing interceptions at a Nathan Peterman rate. Tua is the starter(?) for the Dolphins, at least that’s what Flores says. The Miami defense looked like they returned to form and had a long week of rest after a Thursday night win. Bet amount: 2 units.

5. Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills -7. This has one of those feelings of an exposure game. The mighty Jags beat the Bills then gave the Colts a scare last week, so taking that into consideration it should be a close game, right? I don’t think so. Carson Wentz against the league’s top defense is a recipe for disaster for Indy. Bet amount: 1 unit.

6. Cincinnati Bengals -1 at Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders are reeling after Mahomes cut through them with a buzz saw on Sunday Night Football. It’s been a brutal season for the team off the field and you must wonder if some of that is getting to them. The Bengals are coming off a bye and need to start playing better and I think they will. Bet amount: ½ unit.

6 Bets to Avoid:

1. New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles -2. Philly is playing better football as of late and the Saints are navigating the Trevor Siemian era competitively. Alvin Kamara should be back this week which will take some pressure off the backup quarterback and may lead to a win on the road.

2. San Francisco 49ers -6.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars. This one seems easy after how the Niners looked against the super-team Rams. For that reason, I’m going to assume this is the weekly “Vegas knows more than I do” game to stay away from.

3. Baltimore Ravens -5.5 at Chicago Bears. The Bears are coming off a bye and the Ravens had a few extra days to soak in the loss to the Dolphins on Thursday Night Football. Can Justin Fields build on his quality start against Pittsburgh, or will Matt Nagy stunt any growth we’ve seen?

4. Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers -3. Ron Rivera faces off against Cam Newton, which seemed like an extremely unlikely occurrence in this game if you look back a few weeks. Washington is down Chase Young and Montez Sweat, but found a way to knock off the Bucs last week despite their injuries. Can Cam inject some life into the Panthers quarterback situation and make a run at a wild card spot?

5. Arizona Cardinals -1.5 at Seattle Seahawks. Russell Wilson returned before Kyler Murray, not something many of us saw coming. Murray has said it will be his choice whether he plays or not this weekend and you have to wonder if they Cardinals are feeling some pressure even being tied for the best record in the NFL.

6. Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans -10. The Titans keep rolling through quality teams with an injured roster. Tennessee has suffered more injuries than any team in the league but sits atop the AFC and has run through some impressive teams over the past five weeks. This may shape up to be a trap game for the Titans with a win but no cover situation brewing.