Taphorn’s Twelve Pack Week 12 CFB

Our water mixed in for Week 11 didn’t help. We needed an IV and some ibuprofen to kick this hangover. Or maybe we should just crack six more and see if these taste better….

Week 11 Record: 3-3. 0 units; Year to Date Record: 32-37. -11 units; Degenerate Little Birdie Record: 5-6

Six Bets I Like:

1. Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf Pack -1.5. Carson Strong keeps proving himself worthy of a high draft pick this coming Spring. The MWC’s leading passer threw for 350 yards and three touchdowns in a losing effort to San Diego State’s elite defense and should have similar success this week. Bet amount: 1 unit.

2. UCLA Bruins -3.5 at USC Trojans. The Battle for LA. Chip Kelly’s Bruins have shown more promise than the Trojans who are down a coach and some key players. Bruins win this one by a touchdown and cover. Bet amount: 2 units.

3. Baylor Bears +0.5 at Kansas State Wildcats. Baylor is coming off a big win against Oklahoma a week ago, but the oddsmakers are predicting an upset on the road. I think Dave Aranda’s team keeps their focus and leaves the Little Apple with a win. Bet amount: 2 units.

4. Oregon Ducks at Utah Utes -3.5. The Ducks are ranked third nationally but are more than a field goal underdog in Salt Lake City. Utah had a rough start to the season, but this will be the biggest remaining challenge between the Ducks and a CFP bid. I think Utah gets it done at home. Bet amount: ½ unit.

5. Michigan State Spartans +19.5 at Ohio State Buckeyes. This game had a lot more promise before Purdue played spoiler to the Spartans two weeks ago. The Buckeyes didn’t fall into that trap and dismantled the Boilermakers last week. Both teams feature possible Heisman finalists and a trip to Indianapolis is on the line, so the Spartans keep it close. Bet amount: ½ unit.

6. Arizona State -3.5 at Oregon State. Herm Edwards just play to win the game. The Sun Devils are still alive in the Pac-12 South race with Utah’s pending matchup against Oregon. Finish the year strong and see what happens. Sun Devils win on the road this weekend. Bet amount: 1 unit.

*Degenerate Little Birdie’s Bonus Bet: Texas Longhorns at West Virginia Mountaineers over 56 points. I’m allowing my feathered friend to bet the over in this game even with my statement below regarding the Longhorns. Given what we saw against Kansas last week, this seems appropriate.

6 Bets to Avoid:

1. Arkansas at Alabama -21.5. After going down 3-0 to New Mexico State, the Tide rallied off 59 straight to end the game, but Nick Saban is questioning the team’s practice habits again. Arkansas is playing good football right now and could give the Tide some cause for concern, or at least keep it within three scores.

2. Florida -9.5 at Missouri Tigers. Dan Mullen could be on his way out after almost losing to Samford a week ago and giving up a ridiculous number of points to the FCS program. Missouri ranks behind Vanderbilt in scoring defense in the SEC. This game stinks, let’s just avoid it at all costs.

3. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns at Liberty Flames -4.5. An underrated matchup this weekend. The Ragin’ Cajuns have rallied off nine straight wins after losing to Texas in Week 1. Liberty may have the top quarterback entering the NFL Draft next year in Malik Willis with Hugh Freeze orchestrating the offense. This one will be worth tuning into for casual college football fans.

4. California Golden Bears -1.5 at Stanford Cardinal. Anyone watching this game will want the band to run on the field. These two teams have been terrible lately, and Cal is facing some COVID challenges coming off their cancelled game a week ago against USC. Stanford may want to look at doing the same after what they’ve displayed the past few weeks.

5. Virginia Tech Hokies at Miami (FL) -7.5. Justin Fuente was announced to be out at Virginia Tech as their head coach and Miami fired their athletic director. Could Manny Diaz be the next head to roll in the brutal business of college football? We’re at the time of the year where the grim reaper is creeping around corners for many coaches and AD’s making the play of their teams even more unpredictable.

6. Texas Longhorns at West Virginia Mountaineers -3.5. Texas lost to Kansas. Placing any wager on Texas going forward should be considered fiscally irresponsible. West Virginia isn’t great, but we must have principles as a betting community. You lose to Kansas, you’re off the board.