The Odds of Nick Kyrgios Winning Wimbledon Just Got a Whole Lot Better

Nick Kyrgios is through to his third Grand Slam quarterfinal, and the odds of him winning his first Slam have just improved significantly.

Pre-tournament, the Australian was at +4000 to win the title—now, he’s the third-favorite at +650 after advancing to the quarterfinals.

Kyrgios has been a headline-magnet over the past ten days. From spitting at audience members, swearing at umpires and eating in press conferences, to underarm serves, incredible shot making and refreshing honesty, Kyrgios has been the talk of Wimbledon.

It’s not just his antics off the court that are catching eyes, however. He’s produced some of the highest quality tennis of his career so far, and is now on the brink of his best ever Grand Slam result.

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A Wimbledon draw blown wide open

Not only is Kyrgios playing great tennis at this year’s Wimbledon, but the men’s draw has also been significantly weakened compared to other years.

A ban on Russian and Belarussian players meant that World No.1 Daniil Medvedev and World No.8 were unable to compete at Wimbledon 2022, while an injury sustained at the French Open kept World No.2 Sascha Zverev from stepping on court as well.

Add to this a Covid-19 outbreak which forced last year’s runner up Matteo Berrettini and former Grand Slam champion Marin Cilic to withdraw, and the men’s draw is looking ripe for the taking.

Steady progress for Nick Kyrgios so far

Over his four matches at Wimbledon so far, Nick Kyrgios has shown glimpses of what he’s capable of.

He’s also struggled to find his best form at times—being pushed to five-sets in his opening round by World No.219 Paul Jubb, and taking five-sets to get past Brandon Nakashima in his most recent match as well.

However, Kyrgios has a history of rising to big occasions, and turning on his best tennis when required, just as he did to knock out fourth seed Stephanos Tsitsipas in the third round.

Kyrgios’ path to the Wimbledon title

Following his defeat of Brandon Nakashima, Kyrgios now has a quarterfinal against World No.43 Cristian Garin.

While Garin is by no means an easy beat, had circumstances not unfolded how they have over the past ten days, Kyrgios would have been due to play a much tougher opponent in last year’s runner up Matteo Berrettini instead. Should he move past Garin, the Australian will then likely face Rafael Nadal in a semi-final, a player who he has beaten on Wimbledon’s biggest stage before. Given Kyrgios’ propensity to save his best tennis for the biggest occasions, and Rafael Nadal’s aging body, there’s every chance of the 27-year-old pulling off an upset here.

Should Kyrgios upset Nadal, he’d be on track to play Novak Djokovic in the final. While beating Novak Djokovic in a Grand Slam final is no simple task, Kyrgios holds a 2:0 head-to-head against the Serbian, and would be playing in front of a packed crowd with nothing to lose.

With odds of +650, compared to that of -250 for Novak Djokovic, Kyrgios is far from a sure thing. When you consider that he opened the tournament at +4000 however, and the path ahead of him to his first Wimbledon title, +650 is suddenly looking quite attractive.