Best Bets For the 2023 NFL Divisional Playoff Round
After a very entertaining Super Wildcard weekend, thee NFL advances into the Divisional Round. Four of the six-weekend games were exciting and close, and the Giants pulled out a true upset with their victory over the Vikings.
Can the upcoming Divisional round provide the same drama? I will give my best bets and player props for the weekend.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs Under 53 Points
I believe that the first game of the weekend (4:30 p.m. ET), pitting the AFC’s No. 4 Jaguars (10-8) against the conference’s No. 1 Chiefs (14-3), has the potential to be very entertaining. The game features two of the strongest-arm and tough quarterbacks in the league: Trevor Lawrence and Patrick Mahomes. As a result of the play of their quarterbacks, the Chiefs and Jaguars have the league’s No. 1 and No. 10 ranked offenses in both yards and scoring, respectively.
Despite the offensive potential, the point total is too high. The Jaguars and Chief’s defense has been superb recently. Jacksonville will also try to establish the run, which I expect them to, and keep Mahomes on the sidelines as much as possible.
Jacksonville has allowed a total of 28 points over their last three road contests and allows 21 points per game on the road. Similarly, KC has allowed just 14.7 points per game over their last three contests at home. The average number of points at Arrowhead is just 44.5 this year, with the Chiefs and Jaguars combining for 44 points earlier this year.
New York Giants (+7.5) Over Philadelphia Eagles
The second game on Saturday (8:15) should be a heated contest between two NFC rivals. The NFC’s top-seeded Eagles (14-3) face the No. 7 Giants (10-7-1) for a third time in seven weeks, with Philadelphia winning 22-16 in Week 18 as Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones sat out.
While the Eagles are the better team, and I expect them to advance, the Giants have played well down the stretch. New York, coming off a splendid Wildcard game performance, is 3-3-1 with a +8 scoring margin in their last seven contests.
Take New York to cover. The Giants are 4-4 on the season on the road, 7-1 ATS, as they have outscored by a total of nine points during this stretch. Moreover, the G-Men are 3-1 ATS when an underdog of a touchdown or more, while the Eagles are 2-4 ATS when they are favored by at least seven points.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills Over 48 Points
This contest between the No. 3 Bengals (13-4) and the Bills (14-3) should be the game of the weekend. Here is the thing, while the Dolphins deserve credit for their heart last week, the Bills dominated the game in every facet and technically should have won the game handily. Meanwhile, the Bengals struggled with an undermanned Ravens squad.
I like the Bills to win here, but the best bet is over 48 points. Both defenses have shown that they can make winning plays, but they tend to give up points against great offenses. Which both teams are.
The Bills’ offense thrives in Buffalo. Buffalo averaged a league-high 32 points at home, and the average score at Highmark Stadium is 51.5 points this season. Cincinnati’s offense is no slouch on the road with three top-notch receivers, along with Hayden Hurst and running back Joe Mixon.
Other NFL Bets
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5 Points) Over Dallas Cowboys
3-leg Parlay (+143): 49ers, Chiefs, and Eagles all to win on Moneyline.
Patrick Mahomes Under 320.5 Passing Yards
Travis Kelce Over 6.5 Receptions
Evan Engram Under 5.5 Receptions
Zay Jones Over 4.5 Receptions
Jalen Hurts Under 244.5 Passing Yards
Christian McCaffery Over 65.5 Rushing Yards
Ezekiel Elliott Over 35.5 Rushing Yards
Bills vs. Bengals Over 23.5 first-half points
Darius Slayton Over 44.5 Receiving Yards
