NFL Wild Card Weekend Bets: Matchup Breakdowns
As is a weekly tradition, I present matchup breakdowns to help inform our Wild Card Weekend bets.
This is for my data nerds out there – my own analysis and choices will come later.
Initial takeaways: there’s less obvious spots to target for player props. It’s almost as if teams that make the playoffs have better defenses – weird. There are a few clear advantages for the Colts and Ravens rushing attacks, but otherwise, we’re going to have to dig deeper.
There should be no doubt that I will dig – make sure you don’t miss my game previews this weekend. I’ll post all of them on Twitter, @griffybets.
One strategy I’ve implemented to success the last two weeks has been to target the unders in games where no offense has an advantage. I’ve been doing six or ten-point teasers, teasing up the unders in all games.
This week? There’s three such games. You know I’ll be doing it again.
Let’s get to it. Take a look at the data and form your own opinions. Maybe they’re the same as mine, that would be great! My favorite props and picks will come throughout the week.
Give me a shout on Twitter, which teams do you like this weekend?
Wild Card Weekend Bets: Matchup Rankings for Every Game
Each game for Wild Card Weekend is here. All the information you need for player props. Start your engines.
Colts at Bills
Indianapolis Passing Offense
Receiving grade (16) vs. Bills Pass Coverage grade (11)
Passing DVOA (16) vs. Bills Pass Defense DVOA (12)
Net difference: -9
Indianapolis Rushing Offense
Running grade (3) vs. Bills Rush Defense grade (30)
Rushing DVOA (12) vs. Bills Rush Defense DVOA (17)
Net difference: +32
Buffalo Passing Offense
Receiving grade (3) vs. Colts Pass coverage grade (6)
Passing DVOA (3) vs. Colts Pass Defense DVOA (8)
Net difference: +8
Buffalo Rushing Offense
Running grade (14) vs. Colts Rush defense grade (13)
Rushing DVOA (22) vs. Colts Rush Defense DVOA (9)
Net difference: -14
Rams at Seahawks
Los Angeles Passing Offense
Receiving grade (18) vs. Seahawks Pass Coverage grade (16)
Passing DVOA (20) vs. Seahawks Pass Defense DVOA (20)
Net difference: -2
Los Angeles Rushing Offense
Running grade (20) vs. Seahawks Rush Defense grade (1)
Rushing DVOA (4) vs. Seahawks Rush Defense DVOA (7)
Net difference: -16
Seattle Passing Offense
Receiving grade (9) vs. Rams Pass coverage grade (1)
Passing DVOA (6) vs. Rams Pass Defense DVOA (4)
Net difference: -10
Seattle Rushing Offense
Running grade (12) vs. Rams Rush defense grade (4)
Rushing DVOA (9) vs. Rams Rush Defense DVOA (3)
Net difference: -14
Buccaneers at Washington
Tampa Bay Passing Offense
Receiving grade (5) vs. Washington Pass Coverage grade (2)
Passing DVOA (5) vs. Washington Pass Defense DVOA (2)
Net difference: -6
Tampa Bay Rushing Offense
Running grade (11) vs. Washington Rush Defense grade (9)
Rushing DVOA (10) vs. Washington Rush Defense DVOA (11)
Net difference: -1
Washington Passing Offense
Receiving grade (31) vs. Bucs Pass coverage grade (8)
Passing DVOA (32) vs. Bucs Pass Defense DVOA (5)
Net difference: -50
Washington Rushing Offense
Running grade (21) vs. Bucs Rush defense grade (10)
Rushing DVOA (14) vs. Bucs Rush Defense DVOA (1)
Net difference: -24
Ravens at Titans
Baltimore Passing Offense
Receiving grade (27) vs. Titans Pass Coverage grade (12)
Passing DVOA (17) vs. Titans Pass Defense DVOA (30)
Net difference: -2
Baltimore Rushing Offense
Running grade (4) vs. Titans Rush Defense grade (17)
Rushing DVOA (3) vs. Titans Rush Defense DVOA (16)
Net difference: +26
Tennessee Passing Offense
Receiving grade (2) vs. Ravens Pass coverage grade (9)
Passing DVOA (4) vs. Ravens Pass Defense DVOA (10)
Net difference: +13
Tennessee Rushing Offense
Running grade (1) vs. Ravens Rush defense grade (15)
Rushing DVOA (2) vs. Ravens Rush Defense DVOA (12)
Net difference: +24
Bears at Saints
Chicago Passing Offense
Receiving grade (20) vs. Saints Pass Coverage grade (19)
Passing DVOA (23) vs. Saints Pass Defense DVOA (3)
Net difference: -21
Chicago Rushing Offense
Running grade (8) vs. Saints Rush Defense grade (2)
Rushing DVOA (25) vs. Saints Rush Defense DVOA (2)
Net difference: -29
New Orleans Passing Offense
Receiving grade (12) vs. Bears Pass coverage grade (13)
Passing DVOA (12) vs. Bears Pass Defense DVOA (13)
Net difference: +2
New Orleans Rushing Offense
Running grade (5) vs. Bears Rush defense grade (6)
Rushing DVOA (1) vs. Bears Rush Defense DVOA (4)
Net difference: +4
Browns at Steelers
Cleveland Passing Offense
Receiving grade (10) vs. Steelers Pass Coverage grade (3)
Passing DVOA (10) vs. Steelers Pass Defense DVOA (1)
Net difference: -16
Cleveland Rushing Offense
Running grade (7) vs. Steelers Rush Defense grade (7)
Rushing DVOA (7) vs. Steelers Rush Defense DVOA (5)
Net difference: -2
Pittsburgh Passing Offense
Receiving grade (29) vs. Browns Pass coverage grade (20)
Passing DVOA (21) vs. Browns Pass Defense DVOA (25)
Net difference: -5
Pittsburgh Rushing Offense
Running grade (31) vs. Browns Rush defense grade (18)
Rushing DVOA (30) vs. Browns Rush Defense DVOA (19)
Net difference: -24
Follow me on Twitter, @griffybets, for picks and props for every Wild Card game. Thanks for reading!
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