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Texans vs Chiefs Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 16

ByUSA Wager

The Texans are favored on the road with a money line of -133 as they take on the Chiefs at 1:00 ET on Saturday, December 21st. The Chiefs are the underdog with a +111 money line and +2 point spread. This week 16 AFC matchup is being televised on NBC, and the over/under line is set at 40 points.

Prediction at a Glance for Chiefs vs Texans

  • We have the Texans winning this one by a score of 26 to 21
  • Not only do we have the Texans winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -2
  • Look for this game to go over the line of 40 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Texans -2 | Chiefs +2
  • Total: 40
  • MoneyLine: Texans -133 | Chiefs +111

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Texans vs. Chiefs Prediction: MoneyLine

Heading into week 16, the Texans rank 20th in our offensive power rankings. They are 11th in the NFL in points per game (23.4) and 18th in yards per game (324.2). Houston has been strong early in games, ranking 5th in 1st-quarter scoring. They are 19th in passing yards per game (212.8) and 16th in rushing yards per game (111.4), with Joe Mixon rushing for 101 yards in week 13 before being held to 33 yards on 5 catches in week 15.

In week 15, C.J. Stroud threw for 131 yards and 2 touchdowns on 18/26 passing, posting a passer rating of 106. Houston converted 5 of 13 third downs and scored on 2 of 3 red zone trips. They scored 20 points against Miami, with 10 coming in the 2nd quarter, but were held scoreless in the 4th quarter.

Heading into week 16, the Chiefs are 9th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 23.5 points per game, which ranks 10th in the NFL. They are 14th in passing yards per game (224.1) and 15th in rushing yards (112.1), with 36 passing attempts per game (5th) and 27.9 rushing attempts (9th). Kansas City leads the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 50.8% success rate, and ranks 4th in red zone attempts, though they are 22nd in red zone conversion percentage (14.5%).

Patrick Mahomes threw for 159 yards (19/38) and 2 touchdowns in week 15, after posting passer ratings of 84 in week 13 and 88 in week 14. Xavier Worthy led the team with 46 receiving yards, and Kareem Hunt had 45 rushing yards on 13 carries. The Chiefs scored all 21 of their points in the first three quarters against the Browns.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Texans -133 (Bet Now)

Texans vs. Chiefs Prediction: Total

The Texans’ defense played well in their most recent game, coming up with three interceptions and allowing just 172 passing yards in their 20-12 win over the Dolphins. Houston defended the run effectively, giving up only 52 yards on 19 attempts. Although Miami completed 72.5% of their passes, the Texans limited big plays, allowing just 4.3 yards per attempt.

On third downs, the Texans held the Dolphins to a 30.8% conversion rate and recorded three sacks. Overall, the Texans’ defense held Miami to 224 total yards in the game.

Despite giving up 139 rushing yards on just 21 attempts, the Chiefs’ defense was strong in their most recent game, as they picked off four passes and held the Browns to just 127 yards passing in a 21-7 win. The Chiefs also had five sacks and limited the Browns to a 33.3% conversion rate on third down.

  • Free Total Prediction OVER 40 (Bet Now)

Texans vs. Chiefs Prediction: Spread

With a 9-5 record, the Texans sit atop the AFC South, and our projections give them a 100% chance of winning the division and making the playoffs. Houston ranks 11th in our power rankings heading into week 16, and they’ve won two straight games, including a 20-12 victory over the Dolphins in week 15. The Texans were 2.5-point favorites in that matchup and covered the spread, but the combined 32 points fell short of the 46.5-point O/U line.

Houston has a +2 scoring margin this season and is 6-7-1 against the spread. They are 4-6-1 as favorites and 2-1 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 4-9-1, with the under hitting in two straight games.

  • Houston has put together a record of 2-1 over their past three games. However, they have only gone 1-1-1 vs. the spread over this stretch. Their over-under record in these three games was 1-2.
  • Houston has played well in their previous 5 road games, going 3-2 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 26 points per game while allowing 19. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-1-1.

With a 13-1 record, the Chiefs sit atop the AFC and have a 100% chance of winning the AFC West. They rank 12th in our power rankings. Kansas City has won four straight games, including a 21-7 victory over the Browns in week 15. They were favored by 4 points and covered the spread, but the 28 combined points fell short of the 41-point line, marking their third straight under.

The Chiefs are 5-8-1 against the spread this season, with a +5 scoring margin. Their O/U record is 6-8, with their games averaging 42 points compared to a 44.2-point line.

  • Spanning across their last three games, Kansas City have gone 3-0. This includes going 0-3 vs. the spread and posting an over-under mark of 0-3.
  • Through their last five home contests, the Chiefs offense has averaged 25 points per game while allowing an average of 20. Kansas City posted an overall record of 4-1 while going 2-3 ATS.
  • Free Spread Prediction Texans -2 (Bet Now)

Texans vs. Chiefs Pick: Texans -2

For this week 16 matchup between the Texans and Chiefs, we have the Texans pulling off the upset by a score of 27-20. With this projection, there is a great opportunity to take the Texans to cover as road favorites.

As for an over/under pick, with the line sitting at just 40 points, we really like the over, projecting a combined score of 47 points. This makes the over a strong play compared to the current line.

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