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Broncos vs Chargers Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 16

ByUSA Wager

The Chargers are favored at -161 on the money line as they host the Broncos in a week 16 AFC West matchup on Thursday, December 19th at 8:15 ET. The game, played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA, is being broadcast on AMZN. The Chargers are -3 point favorites, and the over/under line is set at 42.5 points.

Prediction at a Glance for Chargers vs Broncos

  • We have the Broncos winning this one by a score of 24 to 17
  • Not only do we have the Broncos winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +3
  • We see this game finishing below the line of 42.5 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Broncos +3 | Chargers -3
  • Total: 42.5
  • MoneyLine: Broncos +135 | Chargers -161

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Broncos vs. Chargers Prediction: MoneyLine

Heading into week 16, the Broncos sit 24th in our offensive power rankings. They are 9th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 24, but rank 21st in yards per game with 311.1. Denver is 23rd in passing yards per game (202.7) and 19th in rushing yards per game (108.4). They are 16th in the league in 3rd-down conversions and 19th in red zone conversion percentage, despite being 10th in red zone attempts.

Bo Nix threw for 130 yards and 3 touchdowns on 20/33 passing in week 15, but he also had 3 interceptions. Courtland Sutton led the team with 32 receiving yards on 3 catches, while Nix was also the leading rusher with 23 yards on 8 carries. Denver scored 21 points in the 4th quarter against the Colts.

Heading into week 16, the Chargers rank 15th in our offensive power rankings. They are 17th in the NFL in points per game (21) and 25th in passing yards per game, averaging 196.4 yards on 28.8 attempts. On the ground, they rank 20th in rushing attempts and 21st in rushing yards per game, with 105.8. Los Angeles is 20th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 37.1% success rate, but they have been efficient in the red zone, ranking 6th in the NFL with a 41.7% conversion rate.

Justin Herbert threw for 195 yards (21/33) and 2 touchdowns in week 15, but the Chargers’ offense struggled in the second half, failing to score after putting up 17 points in the first half. Gus Edwards led the team with 23 rushing yards on 8 carries, while Ladd McConkey had 5 catches for 58 yards and a touchdown. Los Angeles failed to convert on any of their 6 third-down attempts against the Buccaneers.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Broncos +135 (Bet Now)

Broncos vs. Chargers Prediction: Total

Denver’s defense was dominant in their 31-13 win over the Colts, holding Indianapolis to just 149 yards on 32 rushing attempts. The Broncos’ secondary was excellent, allowing only 161 passing yards and not giving up any passing touchdowns. They also came away with two interceptions and limited the Colts to a 26.7% conversion rate on third down.

Despite giving up some rushing yards, the Broncos’ defense allowed the Colts to convert just 26.7% of their third downs and held them to 13 points. They also recorded two sacks and held the Colts to a 44.7% completion percentage.

In their 40-17 loss to the Buccaneers, the Chargers’ defense struggled to stop the big plays, giving up 10.5 yards per attempt in the passing game. The Chargers allowed 283 passing yards on just 22 completions, but the real issue was defending the run, as the Buccaneers ran for 223 yards on 39 attempts. Four passing touchdowns were scored against the Chargers, and the defense managed just one interception and one sack.

Opposing offenses are finding success on third downs against the Chargers, as the Buccaneers converted 60% of their third down attempts in the most recent game. Additionally, the Chargers allowed 81.5% of passes to be completed, and they gave up a total of 506 yards in the game.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction UNDER 42.5 (Bet Now)

Broncos vs. Chargers Prediction: Spread

Denver’s 31-13 win over the Colts in week 15 marked their fourth straight victory, bringing their record to 9-5. The Broncos currently sit 6th in the AFC and have a 93.1% chance of making the playoffs. However, they are out of the division race, as they are 2-2 in AFC West games and trail the Chiefs. In our power rankings, Denver is 21st heading into week 16.

The Broncos are 11-3 against the spread this season, including five straight ATS wins. They covered as 4.5-point favorites vs the Colts and are now 7-0 as favorites. Their O/U record is 9-5, with the over hitting in three consecutive games.

  • Denver has put together a record of 3-0 over their past three games. In terms of betting, the team went 3-0 ATS in these matchups. Their over/under record in these matchups is 3-0.
  • Denver has played well in their previous 5 road games, going 3-2 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 19 points per game while allowing 19. The team also performed well vs the spread at 4-1.

Heading into week 16, the Chargers are looking to snap a two-game losing streak that includes a 40-17 home loss to the Buccaneers in week 15. This dropped them to 8-6, putting them 3rd in the AFC West and 7th in the conference. Despite their recent struggles, they still have an 87.7% chance of making the playoffs, according to our projections.

Los Angeles is 9-4-1 against the spread this season, with an average scoring margin of +3.4 points per game. They have gone 8-2 ATS as favorites and 1-2-1 as underdogs. Their O/U record stands at 5-9, with their games averaging 38.6 points compared to a 42.6-point line.

  • Through their last three regular season contests, Los Angeles has a record of 1-2. Against the spread, Los Angeles went 1-2 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 3-0.
  • Los Angeles has played well in their previous five home games, going 3-2 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 19 points per game while allowing 15. The team also performed well vs the spread at 4-1.
  • Free Spread Prediction Broncos +3 (Bet Now)

Broncos vs. Chargers Pick: Broncos Moneyline (+135)

For this week 16 matchup between the Broncos and Chargers, we have the Broncos pulling off the upset over the Chargers. Our predicted final score is 23-17 in favor of the Broncos.

As for our best bet vs. the spread, we like the Broncos to cover as the road underdogs. With the point spread sitting at +3 in favor of the Broncos, we are taking them to not only cover but to win this one.

For the over/under, we are leaning towards taking the under, with a projected combined score of 40 points and the O/U line at 42.5 points.

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