Lutz’s Locks For Week 4 Of The NFL

Steelers vs Falcons Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 1

ByUSA Wager

The Falcons are favored on the money line at -154 as they host the Steelers at 1:00 ET on Sunday, September 8th at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The Falcons are -3 point favorites on the point spread, with FOX covering this week one non-conference matchup. The over/under line is set at 42 points for this one.

Prediction at a Glance for Falcons vs Steelers

  • We have the Steelers winning this one by a score of 19 to 16
  • Not only do we have the Steelers winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +3
  • We see this game finishing below the line of 42 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Steelers +3 | Falcons -3
  • Total: 42
  • MoneyLine: Steelers +129 | Falcons -154

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Steelers vs. Falcons Prediction: MoneyLine

On the road, the Steelers scored 17.3 points per game, while at home, they averaged 18.3 points per game. Overall, their average of 17.8 points per game placed them 28th in the NFL. They were 25th in the league in terms of offensive power rankings. Pittsburgh’s offense struggled to move the ball, averaging only 305.4 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play, which ranked 23rd in the league.

They were more successful in the running game, averaging 117.6 yards per game (11th) on 28.3 attempts per game (9th). However, their passing game ranked 26th in attempts and 25th in yards, averaging 187.8 yards per game through the air.

On the road, the Steelers scored 17.3 points per game, which was 23rd in the NFL, while at home, they scored 18.3 points per game, ranking 27th. Overall, their average of 17.8 points per game placed them 28th in the league. Pittsburgh’s offense struggled last season, ranking 25th in yards per game (305.4) and 25th in passing yards, averaging 187.8 per game.

They were also 25th in offensive power rankings. The Steelers ran the ball 28.3 times per game, which was 9th in the league, and finished 11th in rushing yards, averaging 117.6 per game. However, their inability to sustain drives was evident, as they were 20th in third-down conversion percentage.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Steelers +129 (Bet Now)

Steelers vs. Falcons Prediction: Total

Despite finishing 21st in yards allowed, the Steelers’ defense was one of the better units last season, giving up just 19.7 points per game, which was 8th best in the NFL. They also forced 27 turnovers and had the 2nd best turnover differential in the league. Their pressure on the quarterback was effective, as they finished 8th in sacks and 10th in QB hits.

Pittsburgh’s defense also excelled in stopping the run, giving up the 3rd fewest rushing touchdowns and ranking 8th in rushing yards allowed. In terms of defending the pass, they allowed 224.9 passing yards per game and held quarterbacks to a collective passer rating of 82.51, which was 10th best in the NFL.

For the Steelers, their defense was a top-10 unit last season, allowing just 19.7 points per game, which was 8th in the NFL. Despite this, they were only 21st in yards allowed, giving up an average of 343.6 yards per game. One of the reasons for their success was their ability to force turnovers, as they had 27 takeaways and the 2nd best turnover differential in the league.

Against the run, Pittsburgh was strong, giving up the 3rd fewest rushing touchdowns and holding opponents to 4.3 yards per attempt (8th). In terms of getting to the quarterback, they were 8th in sacks and 10th in quarterback hits.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction UNDER 42 (Bet Now)

Steelers vs. Falcons Prediction: Spread

The Steelers, who were 10-7 overall, made it to the playoffs but lost to the Bills in the AFC Wild Card round by a score of 31-17. Pittsburgh finished 7th in the AFC and 3rd in the AFC North. They were above .500 against teams with winning records, going 8-6, but only 2-2 against below .500 teams. Within the division, they performed well, going 5-1, but their 10 wins were only good enough for 3rd in the AFC North.

Pittsburgh’s over/under record was 7-11, and their games averaged 37.6 points per game, which was 30th in the league. Against the spread, the Steelers were 10-8, with a 5-4 record both at home and on the road.

  • Spanning across their last three games, Pittsburgh have gone 2-1. In these games, they have a 2-1 record vs the spread and an over-under mark of 2-1.
  • In their last five road games, Pittsburgh has averaged 18 points per game while allowing 20 . The team’s record in this stretch was 3-2 while going 3-2 vs. the spread.

The Steelers’ 10-7 record last season was just good enough for 7th in the AFC and they placed 3rd in the AFC North. They excelled within their division, finishing 5-1 with a 2-2 record against below .500 teams. Pittsburgh’s season ended with a 31-17 loss to the Bills in the AFC Wild Card round of the playoffs. Against above .500 teams, the Steelers were 8-6 and 2-2 against below .500 teams.

Their games averaged 37.6 points, ranking 30th in the league. Pittsburgh went 10-8 against the spread, with a 5-4 ATS record both at home and on the road. Their over/under record was 7-11.

  • Over their last three games, the Falcons have gone 2-1 straight up. In addition, their ATS record over this stretch is 2-1 while posting a 1-2 over-under mark.
  • Through their last five home contests, the Falcons offense has averaged 15 points per game while allowing an average of 25. Atlanta posted an overall record of 1-4 while going 1-4 ATS.
  • Free Spread Prediction Steelers +3 (Bet Now)

Steelers vs. Falcons Pick: Steelers Moneyline (+129)

With the point spread sitting at 3 in favor of the Steelers, we have a good opportunity to take the Steelers to cover as road underdogs in this week one matchup between the Steelers and Falcons. Our predicted final score is 21-14 in favor of the Steelers, making them our pick vs. the spread.

For an over/under pick, we are leaning towards taking the under, with a projected combined score of 35 points, well above the current O/U line of 42 points.

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