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Chiefs vs Bills Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 11

ByUSA Wager

The Chiefs and Bills will face off at 4:25 ET on Sunday, November 17th at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY. The Bills are the favorite with a point spread of -2.5 and their money line odds are -137. Kansas City’s money line odds are +115, and the over/under line is set at 45.5 points. The game is being televised on CBS.

Prediction at a Glance for Bills vs Chiefs

  • We have the Chiefs winning this one by a score of 23 to 19
  • Not only do we have the Chiefs winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +2.5
  • We see this game finishing below the line of 45.5 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Chiefs +2.5 | Bills -2.5
  • Total: 45.5
  • MoneyLine: Chiefs +115 | Bills -137

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction: MoneyLine

Patrick Mahomes threw for 266 yards in week 10, completing 28 of 42 passes with one touchdown and no interceptions. He posted a passer rating of 91 against the Broncos, following his 291-yard, 3-touchdown performance in week 9. Kareem Hunt led the team in receiving in week 10, with 7 catches for 65 yards, and also rushed for 35 yards on 14 carries. Travis Kelce had 14 receptions for 100 yards in week 9.

In our offensive power rankings, the Chiefs are 10th in the NFL. They are 9th in points per game, averaging 24.3, and also rank 9th in passing yards per game with 231.6. Kansas City leads the league in 3rd down conversion percentage, but ranks 25th in red zone conversion percentage.

Our offensive power rankings have the Bills at 3rd heading into week 11, and they are 3rd in the NFL in points per game, averaging 29. They are 14th in the league in yards per game (343.2) and 13th in passing yards per game (222.5) despite ranking 23rd in pass attempts. On the ground, Buffalo is 15th in rushing yards per game (120.7) on 27.6 attempts per game. The Bills are 13th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion percentage (39.7%) and 30th in red zone conversion percentage.

Josh Allen threw for 280 yards in week 10, going 22/37, but he didn’t throw a touchdown and had 2 interceptions. James Cook had 80 rushing yards and a touchdown on 19 carries, while Mack Hollins led the team with 86 receiving yards on 4 catches. Before Hollins, Ray Davis had 70 receiving yards in week 9, and Khalil Shakir had 107 yards in week 8. The Bills will be without WR Keon Coleman (417 yards, 3 TDs) in week 11 due to a wrist injury.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Chiefs +115 (Bet Now)

Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction: Total

Despite allowing two passing touchdowns, the Chiefs’ defense played well in their 16-14 win over the Broncos. Denver finished with 182 passing yards on 22 completions, and Kansas City limited them to 78 rushing yards on 23 attempts. The Chiefs’ defense held the Broncos to 260 total yards and gave up just 2 sacks in the game.

On the negative side, the Chiefs allowed the Broncos to convert on 53.8% of their third down attempts. However, they did manage to come out ahead in the tackles for loss battle, and they kept the Broncos out of the endzone for the majority of the game.

In the secondary, the Bills gave up 240 passing yards on 26 completions, but they also came away with three interceptions in their 30-20 win over the Colts. Buffalo’s defense made it tough on the Colts on third down, allowing just a 36.4% conversion rate. Despite allowing 121 rushing yards on only 22 attempts, the Bills’ defense forced four sacks and came away with 11 tackles for loss.

Buffalo’s defense also forced the Colts into a 74.3% completion percentage, and they gave up two passing touchdowns. The Bills’ defense was able to create pressure throughout the game, finishing with a positive number in both QB hits and tackles for loss.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction UNDER 45.5 (Bet Now)

Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction: Spread

The Chiefs narrowly escaped with a 16-14 win over the Broncos in week 10, keeping their perfect record intact at 9-0. Kansas City sits atop the AFC West and holds the top spot in the conference standings. Our projections give them a 100% chance of making the playoffs and a 97.1% chance of winning the division. Heading into week 11, they rank 4th in our NFL power rankings.

Against the spread, the Chiefs are 4-4-1 this season, with an average scoring margin of +6.4 points per game. They have failed to cover the spread in three straight games, including their week 10 win over Denver, where they were 7-point favorites. Their O/U record stands at 4-5, with their games averaging 42.2 points compared to an average line of 44.8.

  • Through their last three games, the Chiefs have a record of 3-0. However, they have only gone 0-3 vs. the spread over this stretch. Their over-under record in these three games was 2-1.
  • Kansas City has played well in their previous 5 road games, going 5-0 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 22 points per game while allowing 15. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-1-1.

With a 30-20 win over the Colts in week 10, the Bills extended their winning streak to five games, bringing their record to 8-2. Buffalo currently sits 1st in the AFC East and 2nd in the conference. Our projections give them a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs and winning the division. Heading into week 11, the Bills rank 3rd in our NFL power rankings.

Buffalo is 6-4 against the spread this season, including a 5-2 record as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +9.7 points per game. The over has hit in the Bills’ last two games, including week 10, when they and the Colts combined for 50 points, surpassing the 47-point line.

  • The Bills have posted a 3-0 record in their previous three games. In these games, they have a 2-1 record vs the spread and an over-under mark of 3-0.
  • The Bills are 3-2 ATS in their last home games and 3-2 straight-up.
  • Free Spread Prediction Chiefs +2.5 (Bet Now)

Chiefs vs. Bills Pick: Chiefs Moneyline (+115)

Our pick against the spread in this Chiefs vs. Bills matchup is to take the Chiefs to cover as road underdogs. Right now, the point spread is in favor of the Chiefs at +2.5, and we have them winning by a score of 26-19.

For this week 11 matchup, we are also leaning towards taking the under, with a projected combined score of 45 points, just above the O/U line of 45.5.

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