Chargers vs Texans Prediction & NFL Odds For The Wild Card round
The Chargers are favored on the road with a money line of -160 as they take on the Texans in an AFC wild card round matchup. The game, set for 4:30 ET on Saturday, January 11th, will be televised on CBS. The Texans, the home underdog, have a money line of +134 and are getting +3 on the point spread. The over/under line is at 43.5 points.
Prediction at a Glance for Texans vs Chargers
- We have the Chargers winning this one by a score of 21 to 19
- Even though we like the Chargers to win, our ATS pick is to take the Texans at +3
- We see this game finishing below the line of 43.5 points
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Chargers -3 | Texans +3
- Total: 43.5
- MoneyLine: Chargers -160 | Texans +134
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Chargers vs. Texans Prediction: MoneyLine
In our offensive power rankings, the Chargers sit at 9th in the NFL, and they are 11th in points per game, averaging 23.6. They rank 20th in yards per game with 324.2, and they are 19th in passing yards per game, despite being 24th in passing attempts. On the ground, they are 17th in rushing yards per game, with 27.2 attempts per contest.
Justin Herbert had a strong performance in week 3, posting a passer rating of 105 and throwing for 125 yards and a touchdown without an interception. Quentin Johnston led the team in receiving with 44 yards on 2 catches, while J.K. Dobbins rushed for 44 yards on 15 carries.
Heading into the Wild Card round, the Texans rank 20th in our offensive power rankings. They are 18th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 21.9, and 22nd in yards per game with 319.7. Houston is 10th in passing attempts, but only 21st in passing yards, averaging 207.4 per game. On the ground, they rank 17th in rushing attempts and 15th in rushing yards, with 112.3 per game. The Texans are 17th in the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage, converting 37.7% of their attempts, and they rank 15th in red zone conversions.
C.J. Stroud threw for 215 yards in week 3, going 20/31 with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. He had a passer rating of 68 and was sacked 4 times. Cam Akers led the team in rushing with 21 yards on 9 carries, while Stefon Diggs had 10 catches for 94 yards. In week 2, Stroud threw for 260 yards, and in week 1, he had a passer rating of 115, with 234 yards and 2 touchdowns.
- Free MoneyLine Prediction Chargers -160 (Bet Now)
Chargers vs. Texans Prediction: Total
In their 34-20 win over the Raiders, the Chargers’ defense gave up 225 passing yards on 25 completions. The Chargers defended the run well, allowing just 39 yards on 12 attempts. Despite not recording any sacks, they did manage to hit the quarterback two more times than the Raiders.
Los Angeles struggled on third downs, allowing the Raiders to convert 69.4% of their third downs. They also forced just one turnover and allowed two passing touchdowns. The Chargers will look to improve their third-down defense in their next game.
In their 23-14 win over the Titans, the Texans’ defense allowed just 85 rushing yards on 32 attempts, holding Tennessee to 2.7 yards per attempt on the ground. They also limited the Titans to 229 passing yards on 16 completions, with one touchdown and an 8.8-yard passing average. Houston’s defense forced the Titans to a 33.3% third-down conversion rate, and they came away with two sacks in the game.
The Texans’ defense played well up front, winning both the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials in this game.
- Free MoneyLine Prediction UNDER 43.5 (Bet Now)
Chargers vs. Texans Prediction: Spread
The Chargers closed the regular season with three straight wins, including a 34-20 victory over the Raiders in week 18. They also picked up a 40-7 win over the Patriots in week 17 and a 34-27 win over the Broncos in week 16. After these wins, the Chargers finished the season 11-6, putting them 5th in our power rankings heading into the playoffs.
Against the spread, the Chargers went 12-4-1, including three straight covers to end the season. They were 11-2 as favorites and 1-2-1 as underdogs. Their O/U record was 8-9, with the over hitting in their last four games.
- Los Angeles will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 3-0 over their past three games. This also includes going 3-0 ATS and an over-under mark of 3-0.
- Los Angeles has played well in their previous 5 road games, going 4-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 27 points per game while allowing 13. The team also performed well vs the spread at 5-0.
With a 10-7 record, the Texans finished the regular season atop the AFC South, going 5-1 in division play. After starting the year ranked 18th in our power rankings, they now sit 4th in the AFC. Houston closed the season with three straight wins, including a 23-14 victory over the Titans in week 18. The Texans were 2.5-point underdogs in that game, but they covered the spread and hit the over on the 36.5-point line.
Houston’s average scoring margin this season was exactly 0 points, and they went 7-9-1 against the spread. They were 4-6-1 as favorites and 3-3 as underdogs. Their O/U record was 6-10-1, with their games averaging 43.8 points compared to a 44.5-point line.
- Across Houston’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 1-2 and an over-under mark of 1-2.
- Through their last five home contests, the Texans offense has averaged 22 points per game while allowing an average of 18. Houston posted an overall record of 3-2 while going 2-2-1 ATS.
- Free Spread Prediction Texans +3 (Bet Now)
Chargers vs. Texans Pick: Texans +3
Our pick against the spread is to take the Texans to cover as home underdogs in their matchup against the Chargers. The point spread line is sitting at +3 in favor of the Texans, and although we have the Chargers winning 22-20, the Texans’ point spread is our top pick.
For the over/under line, we are leaning towards taking the under, with a projected combined score of 42 points and the over/under line at 43.5 points.
