NFL Player Props: Passing and Rushing Breakdowns for Every Week 16 Game

I’ve been crunching these numbers for a few weeks, targeting NFL player props, and it’s taught me a few things…

One, this system is producing the right picks more often than not.

Two, it’s not fool-proof. Plenty of the identified picks don’t hit.

So, it’s this second takeaway that needs refinement. I need to do more. I want to do more. The disparities from PFF rankings remain a focus, but I’m going to bake in Football Outsider’s DVOA rankings for a stronger choice.

Bringing in metrics from a second site gives us an opportunity to find consistency. For example, seeing the Titans offense ranked so favorably on both Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders is the confirmation I need to pursue a player prop bet (or two).

Finding variance in a ranking gives me pause. We’re hunting down stability in these matchup comparisons. If the two sites cancel each other out, it’s best to stay away.

Take a look at the data and form your own opinions. Maybe they’re the same as mine, that would be great! My favorite props will come on Sunday morning. Make sure you’re following me on Twitter, @griffybets, for the drop of that.

I’ve split this analysis into two to bring some digestibility to the table. Consider this breakdown a resource – cold, hard facts. My favorite player props article is rooted in this analysis, but my preference for a player may differ from yours. 

Give me a shout on Twitter, which props seem the safest to you?

Week 16 NFL Player Props: Matchup Rankings for Every Game

Each game for Week 16 is here. All the information you need for player props. Start your engines.

Buccaneers at Lions

Tampa Bay Passing Offense

Receiving grade (14) vs. Lions Pass Coverage grade (31)

Passing DVOA (6) vs. Lions Pass Defense DVOA (31)

Net difference: +42

Tampa Bay Rushing Offense

Running grade (14) vs. Lions Rush Defense grade (28)

Rushing DVOA (10) vs. Lions Rush Defense DVOA (28)

Net difference: +32

Detroit Passing Offense

Receiving grade (9) vs. Bucs Pass coverage grade (15)

Passing DVOA (14) vs. Bucs Pass Defense DVOA (7)

Net difference: -1

Detroit Rushing Offense

Running grade (30) vs. Bucs Rush defense grade (9)

Rushing DVOA (23) vs. Bucs Rush Defense DVOA (1)

Net difference: -43

49ers at Cardinals

San Francisco Passing Offense

Receiving grade (5) vs. Cardinals Pass Coverage grade (23)

Passing DVOA (22) vs. Cardinals Pass Defense DVOA (8)

Net difference: +1

San Francisco Rushing Offense

Running grade (16) vs. Cardinals Rush Defense grade (29)

Rushing DVOA (19) vs. Cardinals Rush Defense DVOA (14)

Net difference: +8

Arizona Passing Offense

Receiving grade (13) vs. 49ers Pass coverage grade (6)

Passing DVOA (12) vs. 49ers Pass Defense DVOA (14)

Net difference: -5

Arizona Rushing Offense

Running grade (22) vs. 49ers Rush defense grade (11)

Rushing DVOA (17) vs. 49ers Rush Defense DVOA (9)

Net difference: -19

Dolphins at Raiders

Miami Passing Offense

Receiving grade (15) vs. Raiders Pass Coverage grade (29)

Passing DVOA (13) vs. Raiders Pass Defense DVOA (21)

Net difference: +22

Miami Rushing Offense

Running grade (23) vs. Raiders Rush Defense grade (25)

Rushing DVOA (24) vs. Raiders Rush Defense DVOA (31)

Net difference: +9

Las Vegas Passing Offense

Receiving grade (11) vs. Dolphins Pass coverage grade (20)

Passing DVOA (10) vs. Dolphins Pass Defense DVOA (5)

Net difference: +4

Las Vegas Rushing Offense

Running grade (20) vs. Dolphins Rush defense grade (13)

Rushing DVOA (25) vs. Dolphins Rush Defense DVOA (24)

Net difference: -8

Bears at Jaguars

Chicago Passing Offense

Receiving grade (20) vs. Jaguars Pass Coverage grade (30)

Passing DVOA (23) vs. Jaguars Pass Defense DVOA (32)

Net difference: +19

Chicago Rushing Offense

Running grade (11) vs. Jaguars Rush Defense grade (21)

Rushing DVOA (22) vs. Jaguars Rush Defense DVOA (23)

Net difference: +11

Jacksonville Passing Offense

Receiving grade (22) vs. Bears Pass coverage grade (13)

Passing DVOA (25) vs. Bears Pass Defense DVOA (10)

Net difference: -24

Jacksonville Rushing Offense

Running grade (19) vs. Bears Rush defense grade (6)

Rushing DVOA (16) vs. Bears Rush Defense DVOA (5)

Net difference: -24

Colts at Steelers

Indianapolis Passing Offense

Receiving grade (11) vs. Steelers Pass Coverage grade (1)

Passing DVOA (15) vs. Steelers Pass Defense DVOA (1)

Net difference: -24

Indianapolis Rushing Offense

Running grade (8) vs. Steelers Rush Defense grade (3)

Rushing DVOA (18) vs. Steelers Rush Defense DVOA (3)

Net difference: -20

Pittsburgh Passing Offense

Receiving grade (30) vs. Colts Pass coverage grade (5)

Passing DVOA (21) vs. Colts Pass Defense DVOA (6)

Net difference: -40

Pittsburgh Rushing Offense

Running grade (29) vs. Colts Rush defense grade (16)

Rushing DVOA (30) vs. Colts Rush Defense DVOA (11)

Net difference: -32

Giants at Ravens

New York Passing Offense

Receiving grade (27) vs. Ravens Pass Coverage grade (9)

Passing DVOA (31) vs. Ravens Pass Defense DVOA (11)

Net difference: -38

New York Rushing Offense

Running grade (26) vs. Ravens Rush Defense grade (17)

Rushing DVOA (11) vs. Ravens Rush Defense DVOA (6)

Net difference: -14

Baltimore Passing Offense

Receiving grade (26) vs. Giants Pass coverage grade (24)

Passing DVOA (20) vs. Giants Pass Defense DVOA (22)

Net difference: N/A

Baltimore Rushing Offense

Running grade (12) vs. Giants Rush defense grade (4)

Rushing DVOA (4) vs. Giants Rush Defense DVOA (15)

Net difference: +3

Falcons at Chiefs

Atlanta Passing Offense

Receiving grade (10) vs. Chiefs Pass Coverage grade (10)

Passing DVOA (19) vs. Chiefs Pass Defense DVOA (13)

Net difference: -6

Atlanta Rushing Offense

Running grade (32) vs. Chiefs Rush Defense grade (19)

Rushing DVOA (29) vs. Chiefs Rush Defense DVOA (30)

Net difference: -12

Kansas City Passing Offense

Receiving grade (4) vs. Falcons Pass coverage grade (18)

Passing DVOA (1) vs. Falcons Pass Defense DVOA (19)

Net difference: +29

Kansas City Rushing Offense

Running grade (14) vs. Falcons Rush defense grade (12)

Rushing DVOA (13) vs. Falcons Rush Defense DVOA (4)

Net difference: -13

Browns at Jets

Cleveland Passing Offense

Receiving grade (6) vs. Jets Pass Coverage grade (32)

Passing DVOA (8) vs. Jets Pass Defense DVOA (29)

Net difference: +47

Cleveland Rushing Offense

Running grade (4) vs. Jets Rush Defense grade (5)

Rushing DVOA (8) vs. Jets Rush Defense DVOA (8)

Net difference: +1

New York Passing Offense

Receiving grade (32) vs. Browns Pass coverage grade (22)

Passing DVOA (28) vs. Browns Pass Defense DVOA (25)

Net difference: -13

New York Rushing Offense

Running grade (25) vs. Browns Rush defense grade (20)

Rushing DVOA (27) vs. Browns Rush Defense DVOA (19)

Net difference: -13 

Bengals at Texans

Cincinnati Passing Offense

Receiving grade (23) vs. Texans Pass Coverage grade (27)

Passing DVOA (26) vs. Texans Pass Defense DVOA (28)

Net difference: +6

Cincinnati Rushing Offense

Running grade (31) vs. Texans Rush Defense grade (31)

Rushing DVOA (28) vs. Texans Rush Defense DVOA (29)

Net difference: +1

Houston Passing Offense

Receiving grade (8) vs. Bengals Pass coverage grade (4)

Passing DVOA (7) vs. Bengals Pass Defense DVOA (27)

Net difference: +16

Houston Rushing Offense

Running grade (28) vs. Bengals Rush defense grade (24)

Rushing DVOA (32) vs. Bengals Rush Defense DVOA (17)

Net difference: -19

Broncos at Chargers

Denver Passing Offense

Receiving grade (28) vs. Chargers Pass Coverage grade (19)

Passing DVOA (30) vs. Chargers Pass Defense DVOA (17)

Net difference: -22

Denver Rushing Offense

Running grade (10) vs. Chargers Rush Defense grade (15)

Rushing DVOA (26) vs. Chargers Rush Defense DVOA (26)

Net difference: +5

Los Angeles Passing Offense

Receiving grade (17) vs. Broncos Pass coverage grade (8)

Passing DVOA (9) vs. Broncos Pass Defense DVOA (9)

Net difference: -9

Los Angeles Rushing Offense

Running grade (27) vs. Broncos Rush defense grade (8)

Rushing DVOA (31) vs. Rush Defense DVOA (27)

Net difference: -23

Panthers at Washington

Carolina Passing Offense

Receiving grade (25) vs. Washington Pass Coverage grade (2)

Passing DVOA (11) vs. Washington Pass Defense DVOA (2)

Net difference: -31

Carolina Rushing Offense

Running grade (9) vs. Washington Rush Defense grade (10)

Rushing DVOA (14) vs. Washington Rush Defense DVOA (13)

Net difference: N/A

Washington Passing Offense

Receiving grade (29) vs. Panthers Pass coverage grade (28)

Passing DVOA (32) vs. Panthers Pass Defense DVOA (26)

Net difference: -7

Washington Rushing Offense

Running grade (24) vs. Panthers Rush defense grade (27)

Rushing DVOA (12) vs. Panthers Rush Defense DVOA (22)

Net difference: +13

Eagles at Cowboys

Philadelphia Passing Offense

Receiving grade (31) vs. Cowboys Pass Coverage grade (26)

Passing DVOA (27) vs. Cowboys Pass Defense DVOA (20)

Net difference: -12

Philadelphia Rushing Offense

Running grade (18) vs. Cowboys Rush Defense grade (30)

Rushing DVOA (15) vs. Cowboys Rush Defense DVOA (25)

Net difference: +22

Dallas Passing Offense

Receiving grade (21) vs. Eagles Pass coverage grade (25)

Passing DVOA (24) vs. Eagles Pass Defense DVOA (23)

Net difference: +3

Dallas Rushing Offense

Running grade (21) vs. Eagles Rush defense grade (22)

Rushing DVOA (20) vs. Eagles Rush Defense DVOA (10)

Net difference: -9

Rams at Seahawks

Los Angeles Passing Offense

Receiving grade (19) vs. Seahawks Pass Coverage grade (17)

Passing DVOA (17) vs. Seahawks Pass Defense DVOA (24)

Net difference: +5

Los Angeles Rushing Offense

Running grade (6) vs. Seahawks Rush Defense grade (2) 

Rushing DVOA (1) vs. Seahawks Rush Defense DVOA (12)

Net difference: +7

Seattle Passing Offense

Receiving grade (7) vs. Rams Pass coverage grade (3)

Passing DVOA (5) vs. Rams Pass Defense DVOA (4)

Net difference: -5

Seattle Rushing Offense

Running grade (7) vs. Rams Rush defense grade (7)

Rushing DVOA (9) vs. Rams Rush Defense DVOA (7)

Net difference: -2

Titans at Packers

Tennessee Passing Offense

Receiving grade (2) vs. Packers Pass Coverage grade (11)

Passing DVOA (2) vs. Packers Pass Defense DVOA (18)

Net difference: +25

Tennessee Rushing Offense

Running grade (1) vs. Packers Rush Defense grade (17)

Rushing DVOA (2) vs. Packers Rush Defense DVOA (21)

Net difference: +35

Green Bay Passing Offense

Receiving grade (18) vs. Titans Pass coverage grade (7)

Passing DVOA (3) vs. Titans Pass Defense DVOA (30)

Net difference: +18

Green Bay Rushing Offense

Running grade (3) vs. Titans Rush defense grade (14)

Rushing DVOA (5) vs. Titans Rush Defense DVOA (16)

Net difference: +22

Bills at Patriots

Buffalo Passing Offense

Receiving grade (3) vs. Patriots Pass Coverage grade (16)

Passing DVOA (4) vs. Patriots Pass Defense DVOA (16)

Net difference: +25

Buffalo Rushing Offense

Running grade (13) vs. Patriots Rush Defense grade (23)

Rushing DVOA (21) vs. Patriots Rush Defense DVOA (32)

Net difference: +21

New England Passing Offense

Receiving grade (24) vs. Bills Pass coverage grade (11)

Passing DVOA (29) vs. Bills Pass Defense DVOA (15)

Net difference: -27

New England Rushing Offense

Running grade (5) vs. Bills Rush defense grade (32)

Rushing DVOA (7) vs. Rush Defense DVOA (18)

Net difference: +38

This format isn’t going away. We have Week 17 and then the playoffs. Don’t miss a breakdown, follow me on Twitter, @griffybets. Until next time!