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Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Quick Picks

Saturday’s $1 million Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) attracted a well-matched field of eight older horses.

Carded as race six of twelve, the Dirt Mile post time is 1:19 PM PT.

Let’s take a quick look at the horses most likely to hit the board.

#5 Life Is Good (4-5)

The lightly raced Life is Good is the only 3-year-old in the field. A winner of four of five lifetime, his lone loss was by a neck after an overconfident ride. The Todd Pletcher trainee is a confirmed pacesetter and will face other pace pressure, mainly from his former stablemate Eight Rings. However, Life is Good has speed to spare, and his only loss was by a neck to the swift sprinter Jackie’s Warrior when cutting back to seven furlongs. Win contender.

#1 Silver State (7-2)

The reliable Silver State has hit the board in twelve of thirteen tries, and he has won or placed in all four starts at a mile, including the Met Mile (G1) in June. The Steve Asmussen trainee will get plenty of pace to close into, and Silver State could upset the applecart. Win contender.

#8 Eight Rings (10-1)

Eight Rings cuts back to a mile after beating softer company in his last start. The Bob Baffert trainee has been inconsistent against the top sprinters but has done well at longer distances. He may fight his former stablemate Life is Good on the lead, although Eight Rings can press the pace. Longshot win contender.

#3 Ginobili (4-1)

In his last start, Ginobili rose out of the optional claiming ranks to win the seven-furlong Pat O’Brien (G2). The Richard Baltas trainee has won three of four starts at Del Mar and enters with a two-race win streak. This is the most challenging race of his career, but he has the speed to run with Life is Good. Whether Ginobili can sustain that speed is the critical question, but he’s worth an exotics look.

#6 Restrainedvengence (20-1)

At 6-years-old with 34 starts under his girth, Restrainedvengence is the seasoned veteran in the Dirt Mile. He has hit the board in three of four starts at a mile and cuts back in distance after two starts at nine furlongs. The Val Brinkerhoff trainee is no threat to the brilliant speed of Life is Good and Eight Rings, but Restrainedvengence is consistent and capable of closing late to upset somebody’s superfecta. Longshot exotics.

Dirt Mile Race Analysis

Favorites have hit the board 30% of the time in the Dirt Mile in the last decade. Pacesetters have won five times.

The Dirt Mile is Life is Good’s race to lose. He is the class and the fastest horse in the field. Unless he breaks sharply and establishes a clear lead, Life is Good could be pressed on the outside by Eight Rings and on the inside by Ginobili. This would set the race up for Silver State’s closing kick.

  • #5 Life Is Good (4-5)
  • #1 Silver State (7-2)
  • #8 Eight Rings (10-1)
  • #6 Restrainedvengence (20-1)

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