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Falcons vs Saints Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 10

ByUSA Wager

FOX will broadcast the week 10 NFC South matchup between the Falcons and Saints at 1:00 ET. The Saints are the underdog at +151 on the money line, and the Falcons are favored by -3.5 on the road. The over/under line is sitting at 46.5 points for this one. The Falcons are favored on the road with a money line of -179.

Prediction at a Glance for Saints vs Falcons

  • We have the Falcons winning this one by a score of 25 to 24
  • Even though we like the Falcons to win, our ATS pick is to take the Saints at +3.5
  • Look for this game to go over the line of 46.5 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Falcons -3.5 | Saints +3.5
  • Total: 46.5
  • MoneyLine: Falcons -179 | Saints +151

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Falcons vs. Saints Prediction: MoneyLine

Heading into week 10, the Falcons rank 8th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 24.6 points per game, which places them 12th in the NFL. They are 8th in yards per game, with 364.8, and 6th in passing yards, averaging 246.3 per game on 33 attempts (12th). On the ground, they rank 18th in rushing yards per game, with 118.4, on 26.3 attempts per game (19th). Atlanta is 13th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 38.5% success rate, and 16th in red zone conversion percentage, despite ranking 10th in red zone attempts.

Kirk Cousins has been on fire, posting a passer rating of 144 in week 9, with 222 yards and 3 touchdowns on 19/24 passing. He threw for 276 yards and 4 touchdowns in week 8 and had 232 yards in week 7. Bijan Robinson rushed for 86 yards on 19 carries in week 9, while Darnell Mooney led the team with 88 receiving yards on 5 catches. Kyle Pitts had 91 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 8 and 65 yards in week 7.

Heading into week 10, the Saints are 20th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 15th in the NFL in points per game (23) and 16th in yards per game (331.4). New Orleans is 14th in passing attempts and 18th in passing yards per game, with 206.1. On the ground, they rank 9th in rushing attempts and 13th in rushing yards per game (125.3). They are 16th in the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage and 21st in red zone conversion percentage, despite ranking 10th in red zone attempts.

Alvin Kamara had a big game in week 9, rushing for 155 yards on 29 carries and adding 60 receiving yards on 6 catches. Derek Carr threw for 236 yards and a touchdown, completing 18 of 31 passes without an interception. New Orleans scored in every quarter in week 9, finishing with 22 points after scoring 8 in week 8 and 10 in week 7.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Falcons -179 (Bet Now)

Falcons vs. Saints Prediction: Total

In their 27-21 win over the Cowboys, the Falcons’ defense allowed 378 total yards but held Dallas to just a 23.1% conversion rate on third down. Atlanta gave up 137 rushing yards on only 21 attempts, with Dallas averaging 6.5 yards per attempt on the ground. The Falcons also allowed 241 passing yards, with two passing touchdowns and a 62% completion percentage for Dallas.

Atlanta’s defense recorded three sacks in the game and had four more quarterback hits than the Cowboys. Despite these numbers, the Falcons were able to come out on top with a six-point victory.

In the Saints’ 23-22 loss to the Panthers, their defense allowed just 246 total yards. They gave up only 80 rushing yards on 23 attempts and held Carolina to 3.5 yards per attempt on the ground. Through the air, the Panthers finished with 166 yards and completed 61.5% of their passes. New Orleans’ defense also picked off one pass and limited Carolina to a 40% conversion rate on third downs.

New Orleans’ defense put pressure on the quarterback with one sack and didn’t allow big plays, as the Panthers had just one touchdown and averaged only 6.4 yards per pass attempt. Despite this effort, the Saints still came up short in a close 23-22 defeat.

  • Free Total Prediction OVER 46.5 (Bet Now)

Falcons vs. Saints Prediction: Spread

With two straight wins, the Falcons are now 6-3 and sit atop the NFC South. They have a perfect 4-0 record in division play and are 6-1 in conference games. Atlanta has been strong on the road, going 3-0, while they are 3-3 at home. Our projections give them an 86% chance of making the playoffs and an 80% chance of winning the division.

Heading into week 10, the Falcons rank 14th in our power rankings. They have an average scoring margin of +0.6 points per game and are 5-4 against the spread. Their O/U record is 4-5, with their games averaging 48.6 points compared to an average line of 46.6 points.

  • Over their last three games, the Falcons have gone 2-1 straight up. In these games, they have a 2-1 record vs the spread and an over-under mark of 1-2.
  • Atlanta has played well in their previous 5 road games, going 3-2 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 25 points per game while allowing 30. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.

After starting the season with two straight wins, the Saints have now dropped seven in a row, including a 23-22 loss to the Panthers in week 9. New Orleans was a 7-point favorite in that game but couldn’t get the win, bringing their record to 2-7. They now sit 4th in the NFC South with a 1-3 division record and rank 24th in our NFL power rankings. Our projections give the Saints just a 0.5% chance of making the playoffs and a 0.2% chance of winning the division.

Against the spread, the Saints are 3-6 this season and have failed to cover in five straight games. Their average scoring margin is -2.4 points per game. Their O/U record is 6-3, with their games averaging 48.4 points compared to a 43.1-point line.

  • Over their last three regular season games, the Saints have gone 0-3 straight up. This includes going 0-3 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 2-1.
  • In their last five games at home, the Saints have a straight up record of 1-4 while going 2-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 22 points per game in this stretch.
  • Free Spread Prediction Saints +3.5 (Bet Now)

Falcons vs. Saints Pick: Saints +3.5

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Saints to cover as home underdogs. Despite the point spread favoring the Falcons at +3.5, we have the Saints finishing with a 25-22 win in this week 10 matchup.

As for the over/under, with the line sitting at 46.5 points, we like the over, projecting a combined score of 47 points.

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