With their remarkable turn of form, are England now WTC contenders?

Rewind the clock a mere six weeks before the WTC, and Test cricket in England was a shambles.

The men’s team had won an abysmal one Test out of their last 17, their captain had been asked to step down, and they were without a head coach. With talented players performing well below their potential, it seemed no one had any hope for the English side this summer, not even the players themselves.

Fast forward six weeks, and a few hours ago, England made history for all the right reasons—chasing down a record 378 to beat India in Edgbaston. This was their fourth consecutive Test win, and their fourth successful run chase of 250+ in the fourth innings.

This is not normal. Sides chase down scores of 200+ once in a blue moon in Test cricket, let alone chase them down four times in a row, against quality opposition such as New Zealand and India.

And they’ve done it all with apparent ease. It’s clear, this English side is a different beast. With such a remarkable turn of form, what has this done to the betting odds for England to win the World Test Championship final?

Steadily Climbing the WTC Ladder

At the start of last month, England were ninth in the WTC points table. In a tournament that only has nine teams, that’s not a great position to be in—all England had to their name was a lowly six points, for the couple of draws they’d eked out over the last year.

Now, they sit in seventh place, on a much more respectable 52 points, having added 48 points to their tally off the back of four wins (and, unfortunately, losing two points for a slow over rate against New Zealand).

With the ladder being based on percentage of points won, rather than gross points accumulated, England are still a while off the pace. Leaders Australia have a percentage of 77.78%, with second place South Africa on 71.43%.

Meanwhile, England’s current percentage of points won is 28.89%—courtesy of their seven losses under this WTC period already.

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Too Little, Too Late for England’s WTC Campaign

Despite England’s incredible turnaround the past month, bookies are giving them a near zero chance of making the WTC final.
Unfortunately, it’s too little too late for England. Even if they continue their purple patch and win every single remaining Test match of the WTC, their win percentage will only be able to reach just over 60%.

With both WTC finalists last year requiring over 70% to qualify, a win percentage of 60% seems like it will be well off the pace—particularly considering Australia and South Africa are currently sitting above 70%, with home series to come.

Ashes 2023 Odds Not Reflecting England’s Progress

Interestingly, odds for England to win the 2023 Ashes don’t reflect confidence that this run of form will continue. Bookies have them at +400 to win the series, which is a 20% chance, compared to Australia’s +125, a little over 44%.

For those who see this new English team and are seeking to capitalize on their transformation, now is the time to put money on England to win the 2023 Ashes.