Week 17 Player Props: Passing and Rushing Breakdowns for Every NFL Game
We had a great week off the back of this analysis, and it’s time to finish the regular season strong with Week 17 player props.
This is more than just a resource for player props, I found it to be very helpful when looking at overs/unders and game picks. For example, there were a few games that had no advantages for the offenses, so I put them together for a 4-game teaser on the unders and it hit. I’ll be looking to replicate that strategy this week.
Before you take a gander at every passing and rushing matchup for every single NFL game this weekend, let us remember it is indeed Week 17.
The last regular season games can lead to a funky week, where teams out of the running trot out younger players for evaluation or hold star players back in order to save them for next season.
I put together a piece this week for these very games. Take a look: Week 17 Games that Matter.
I’ve told myself that there are a few games we have to avoid due to uncertainty, and what do I get but the largest disparity I’ve seen since starting this up. Of course. Will be a battle between my sane self and the part of me that wants to target disparities.
Let’s get to it. Take a look at the data and form your own opinions. Maybe they’re the same as mine, that would be great! My favorite props will come on Sunday morning. Make sure you’re following me on Twitter, @griffybets, for the drop of that.
Give me a shout on Twitter, which props seem the safest to you?
Week 17 Player Props: Matchup Rankings for Every Game
Each game for Week 17 is here. All the information you need for player props. Start your engines.
Vikings at Lions
Minnesota Passing Offense
Receiving grade (1) vs. Lions Pass Coverage grade (32)
Passing DVOA (11) vs. Lions Pass Defense DVOA (32)
Net difference: +52
Minnesota Rushing Offense
Running grade (2) vs. Lions Rush Defense grade (29)
Rushing DVOA (6) vs. Lions Rush Defense DVOA (26)
Net difference: +47
Detroit Passing Offense
Receiving grade (16) vs. Vikings Pass coverage grade (18)
Passing DVOA (19) vs. Vikings Pass Defense DVOA (13)
Net difference: -4
Detroit Rushing Offense
Running grade (31) vs. Vikings Rush defense grade (26)
Rushing DVOA (23) vs. Vikings Rush Defense DVOA (27)
Net difference: +1
Cowboys at Giants
Dallas Passing Offense
Receiving grade (18) vs. Giants Pass Coverage grade (23)
Passing DVOA (23) vs. Giants Pass Defense DVOA (24)
Net difference: +6
Dallas Rushing Offense
Running grade (20) vs. Giants Rush Defense grade (5)
Rushing DVOA (20) vs. Giants Rush Defense DVOA (16)
Net difference: -19
New York Passing Offense
Receiving grade (27) vs. Cowboys Pass coverage grade (26)
Passing DVOA (29) vs. Cowboys Pass Defense DVOA (20)
Net difference: -10
New York Rushing Offense
Running grade (26) vs. Cowboys Rush defense grade (26)
Rushing DVOA (8) vs. Cowboys Rush Defense DVOA (24)
Net difference: +16
Steelers at Browns
Pittsburgh Passing Offense
Receiving grade (29) vs. Browns Pass Coverage grade (22)
Passing DVOA (21) vs. Browns Pass Defense DVOA (25)
Net difference: -3
Pittsburgh Rushing Offense
Running grade (29) vs. Browns Rush Defense grade (15)
Rushing DVOA (30) vs. Browns Rush Defense DVOA (18)
Net difference: -26
Cleveland Passing Offense
Receiving grade (11) vs. Steelers Pass coverage grade (1)
Passing DVOA (12) vs. Steelers Pass Defense DVOA (1)
Net difference: -21
Cleveland Rushing Offense
Running grade (9) vs. Steelers Rush defense grade (4)
Rushing DVOA (9) vs. Steelers Rush Defense DVOA (5)
Net difference: -9
Dolphins at Bills
Miami Passing Offense
Receiving grade (13) vs. Bills Pass Coverage grade (14)
Passing DVOA (13) vs. Bills Pass Defense DVOA (15)
Net difference: +3
Miami Rushing Offense
Running grade (18) vs. Bills Rush Defense grade (32)
Rushing DVOA (22) vs. Bills Rush Defense DVOA (17)
Net difference: +9
Buffalo Passing Offense
Receiving grade (3) vs. Dolphins Pass coverage grade (20)
Passing DVOA (3) vs. Dolphins Pass Defense DVOA (6)
Net difference: +20
Buffalo Rushing Offense
Running grade (15) vs. Dolphins Rush defense grade (12)
Rushing DVOA (21) vs. Dolphins Rush Defense DVOA (23)
Net difference: -1
Jets at Patriots
New York Passing Offense
Receiving grade (32) vs. Patriots Pass Coverage grade (16)
Passing DVOA (28) vs. Patriots Pass Defense DVOA (19)
Net difference: -25
New York Rushing Offense
Running grade (25) vs. Patriots Rush Defense grade (23)
Rushing DVOA (27) vs. Patriots Rush Defense DVOA (32)
Net difference: +3
New England Passing Offense
Receiving grade (25) vs. Jets Pass coverage grade (29)
Passing DVOA (31) vs. Jets Pass Defense DVOA (28)
Net difference: +1
New England Rushing Offense
Running grade (6) vs. Jets Rush defense grade (3)
Rushing DVOA (7) vs. Jets Rush Defense DVOA (9)
Net difference: -1
Falcons at Buccaneers
Atlanta Passing Offense
Receiving grade (10) vs. Bucs Pass Coverage grade (8)
Passing DVOA (17) vs. Bucs Pass Defense DVOA (5)
Net difference: -14
Atlanta Rushing Offense
Running grade (32) vs. Bucs Rush Defense grade (9)
Rushing DVOA (29) vs. Bucs Rush Defense DVOA (1)
Net difference: -51
Tampa Bay Passing Offense
Receiving grade (8) vs. Falcons Pass coverage grade (17)
Passing DVOA (5) vs. Falcons Pass Defense DVOA (17)
Net difference: +21
Tampa Bay Rushing Offense
Running grade (13) vs. Falcons Rush defense grade (17)
Rushing DVOA (13) vs. Falcons Rush Defense DVOA (6)
Net difference: -3
Ravens at Bengals
Baltimore Passing Offense
Receiving grade (25) vs. Bengals Pass Coverage grade (6)
Passing DVOA (20) vs. Bengals Pass Defense DVOA (27)
Net difference: -12
Baltimore Rushing Offense
Running grade (7) vs. Bengals Rush Defense grade (24)
Rushing DVOA (4) vs. Bengals Rush Defense DVOA (20)
Net difference: +33
Cincinnati Passing Offense
Receiving grade (22) vs. Ravens Pass coverage grade (12)
Passing DVOA (25) vs. Ravens Pass Defense DVOA (16)
Net difference: -19
Cincinnati Rushing Offense
Running grade (30) vs. Ravens Rush defense grade (16)
Rushing DVOA (28) vs. Ravens Rush Defense DVOA (8)
Net difference: -34
Titans at Texans
Tennessee Passing Offense
Receiving grade (2) vs. Texans Pass Coverage grade (27)
Passing DVOA (4) vs. Texans Pass Defense DVOA (29)
Net difference: +50
Tennessee Rushing Offense
Running grade (1) vs. Texans Rush Defense grade (30)
Rushing DVOA (3) vs. Texans Rush Defense DVOA (30)
Net difference: +56
Houston Passing Offense
Receiving grade (7) vs. Titans Pass coverage grade (7)
Passing DVOA (7) vs. Titans Pass Defense DVOA (30)
Net difference: -23
Houston Rushing Offense
Running grade (27) vs. Titans Rush defense grade (18)
Rushing DVOA (32) vs. Titans Rush Defense DVOA (15)
Net difference: -26
Packers at Bears
Green Bay Passing Offense
Receiving grade (14) vs. Bears Pass Coverage grade (11)
Passing DVOA (2) vs. Bears Pass Defense DVOA (9)
Net difference: +4
Green Bay Rushing Offense
Running grade (3) vs. Bears Rush Defense grade (8)
Rushing DVOA (5) vs. Bears Rush Defense DVOA (4)
Net difference: +4
Chicago Passing Offense
Receiving grade (20) vs. Packers Pass coverage grade (9)
Passing DVOA (24) vs. Packers Pass Defense DVOA (14)
Net difference: -21
Chicago Rushing Offense
Running grade (11) vs. Packers Rush defense grade (19)
Rushing DVOA (24) vs. Packers Rush Defense DVOA (19)
Net difference: +3
Seahawks at 49ers
Seattle Passing Offense
Receiving grade (6) vs. 49ers Pass Coverage grade (4)
Passing DVOA (6) vs. 49ers Pass Defense DVOA (8)
Net difference: N/A
Seattle Rushing Offense
Running grade (14) vs. 49ers Rush Defense grade (11)
Rushing DVOA (12) vs. 49ers Rush Defense DVOA (7)
Net difference: -8
San Francisco Passing Offense
Receiving grade (5) vs. Seahawks Pass coverage grade (15)
Passing DVOA (22) vs. Seahawks Pass Defense DVOA (21)
Net difference: +9
San Francisco Rushing Offense
Running grade (12) vs. Seahawks Rush defense grade (1)
Rushing DVOA (14) vs. Seahawks Rush Defense DVOA (10)
Net difference: -15
Chargers at Chiefs
Los Angeles Passing Offense
Receiving grade (17) vs. Chiefs Pass Coverage grade (13)
Passing DVOA (8) vs. Chiefs Pass Defense DVOA (12)
Net difference: N/A
Los Angeles Rushing Offense
Running grade (28) vs. Chiefs Rush Defense grade (22)
Rushing DVOA (31) vs. Chiefs Rush Defense DVOA (29)
Net difference: -8
Kansas City Passing Offense
Receiving grade (4) vs. Chargers Pass coverage grade (19)
Passing DVOA (1) vs. Chargers Pass Defense DVOA (18)
Net difference: +32
Kansas City Rushing Offense
Running grade (10) vs. Chargers Rush defense grade (14)
Rushing DVOA (10) vs. Chargers Rush Defense DVOA (28)
Net difference: +22
Raiders at Broncos
Las Vegas Passing Offense
Receiving grade (9) vs. Broncos Pass Coverage grade (10)
Passing DVOA (9) vs. Broncos Pass Defense DVOA (11)
Net difference: +3
Las Vegas Rushing Offense
Running grade (19) vs. Broncos Rush Defense grade (6)
Rushing DVOA (25) vs. Broncos Rush Defense DVOA (25)
Net difference: -13
Denver Passing Offense
Receiving grade (28) vs. Raiders Pass coverage grade (30)
Passing DVOA (30) vs. Raiders Pass Defense DVOA (22)
Net difference: -4
Denver Rushing Offense
Running grade (8) vs. Raiders Rush defense grade (25)
Rushing DVOA (26) vs. Raiders Rush Defense DVOA (31)
Net difference: +22
Cardinals at Rams
Arizona Passing Offense
Receiving grade (20) vs. Rams Pass coverage grade (3)
Passing DVOA (16) vs. Rams Pass Defense DVOA (3)
Net difference: -30
Arizona Rushing Offense
Running grade (24) vs. Rams Rush defense grade (7)
Rushing DVOA (17) vs. Rams Rush Defense DVOA (3)
Net difference: -31
Los Angeles Passing Offense
Receiving grade (19) vs. Cardinals Pass Coverage grade (24)
Passing DVOA (18) vs. Cardinals Pass Defense DVOA (10)
Net difference: -3
Los Angeles Rushing Offense
Running grade (16) vs. Cardinals Rush Defense grade (31)
Rushing DVOA (2) vs. Cardinals Rush Defense DVOA (14)
Net difference: +27
Jaguars at Colts
Jacksonville Passing Offense
Receiving grade (23) vs. Colts Pass Coverage grade (5)
Passing DVOA (26) vs. Colts Pass Defense DVOA (7)
Net difference: -37
Jacksonville Rushing Offense
Running grade (21) vs. Colts Rush Defense grade (12)
Rushing DVOA (19) vs. Colts Rush Defense DVOA (11)
Net difference: -17
Indianapolis Passing Offense
Receiving grade (14) vs. Jaguars Pass coverage grade (31)
Passing DVOA (15) vs. Jaguars Pass Defense DVOA (31)
Net difference: +33
Indianapolis Rushing Offense
Running grade (5) vs. Jaguars Rush defense grade (21)
Rushing DVOA (15) vs. Jaguars Rush Defense DVOA (22)
Net difference: +23
Saints at Panthers
New Orleans Passing Offense
Receiving grade (12) vs. Panthers Pass Coverage grade (25)
Passing DVOA (14) vs. Panthers Pass Defense DVOA (23)
Net difference: +22
New Orleans Rushing Offense
Running grade (4) vs. Panthers Rush Defense grade (28)
Rushing DVOA (1) vs. Panthers Rush Defense DVOA (21)
Net difference: +44
Carolina Passing Offense
Receiving grade (23) vs. Saints Pass coverage grade (21)
Passing DVOA (10) vs. Saints Pass Defense DVOA (4)
Net difference: -8
Carolina Rushing Offense
Running grade (17) vs. Saints Rush defense grade (2)
Rushing DVOA (18) vs. Saints Rush Defense DVOA (2)
Net difference: -31
Washington at Eagles
Washington Passing Offense
Receiving grade (30) vs. Eagles Pass Coverage grade (28)
Passing DVOA (32) vs. Eagles Pass Defense DVOA (26)
Net difference: -8
Washington Rushing Offense
Running grade (23) vs. Eagles Rush Defense grade (20)
Rushing DVOA (11) vs. Eagles Rush Defense DVOA (12)
Net difference: -2
Philadelphia Passing Offense
Receiving grade (31) vs. Washington Pass coverage grade (1)
Passing DVOA (27) vs. Washington Pass Defense DVOA (2)
Net difference: -55
Philadelphia Rushing Offense
Running grade (22) vs. Washington Rush defense grade (10)
Rushing DVOA (16) vs. Washington Rush Defense DVOA (13)
Net difference: -15
That will do it! We’re going to keep this format going for the playoffs. Don’t miss out, follow me on Twitter, @griffybets. Until next time.
Last week’s work:
