Taphorn’s Twelve Pack: NFL Week 9
NFL Week 8 Record:
4-2; +1 units; Year-to-date Record: 30-17-1; +9.0 units
6 Bets I Like:
1. Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins -5.5. The first time that Houston hasn’t been a double-digit underdog in weeks. Tua has been playing good football despite the cloud surrounding his future in Miami in the form of a Deshaun Watson trade. Tua shows both teams that he’s worth a starting spot in the league this week. Bet amount: 1 unit.
2. New England Patriots -3.5 at Carolina Panthers. The Patriots came off a nice win against the Chargers last week, and Mac Jones looks like the real deal. Sam Darnold looks like he won’t have to see Bill Belichick’s ghosts on the defensive side as the quarterback is likely out with a concussion. Bet amount: 2 units.
3. Las Vegas Raiders -3.5 at New York Giants. The Raiders have had a terrible few weeks off the field, but have rallied as a team on it. The Giants gave the Chiefs a scare on Monday Night Football, but that’s not saying much in 2021. Bet amount: ½ unit.
4. Los Angeles Chargers -1.5 at Philadelphia Eagles. Nick Sirianni’s flowers have been planted, but will they start blooming against LA? Justin Herbert and the Chargers need a win after back-to-back tough losses surrounding their bye week. Chargers get right this week with a win. Bet amount: 1 unit.
5. Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys -9.5. The Broncos defense has been good under Fangio, but they’ve lost almost every linebacker that’s suited up for them this year and Von Miller was just shipped to the Rams. Dak Prescott is back this week and the Cowboys are riding high behind the unexpected win with Cooper Rush leading the way against Minnesota. Dallas is also 7-0 against the spread this year. Bet amount: 2 units.
6. Arizona Cardinals +2 at San Francisco 49ers. JJ Watt is down for the year, Kyler Murray is dealing with a sore ankle, and AJ Green is still trying to get the audible from the last play of the game last week. The Niners looked good against the Bears a week ago, but the Cardinals are a different beast. I like Arizona to get a win here. Bet amount: ½ unit.
6 Bets to Avoid:
1. Green Bay Packers +7.5 at Kansas City Chiefs. This game is just sad now. Rodgers being down with COVID-19 means we’re deprived of Rodgers vs Mahomes. Even with the Chiefs struggling this would have been a great matchup of the last two MVPs.
2. Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers -6. This game could be a snooze fest on Monday Night Football. Both defenses are good and both offenses are hard to watch. If you swap the quarterbacks the Steelers could be a fun team, but the Bears may not score a touchdown over the next 10 weeks.
3. Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals -2.5. The Bengals must be kicking themselves after blowing a lead against the Mike ******* White led Jets after the start to the season they’ve had. The Browns dropped a game to Pittsburgh last week and are dealing with all sorts of injuries and now the Odell Beckham Jr. drama.
4. Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams -7. One team lost an All-Pro this week and one added one. Derrick Henry ran for three quarters and overtime on a broken foot last week but is down for 6-10 weeks for the Titans. Von Miller comes to the Rams because Les Snead realized he still had draft picks he hadn’t gotten rid of. The Rams defense should be fun to watch the rest of the season as a perfect pair with that offense.
5. Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints -6. Trevor Semien took down Tom Brady. Yes, that’s correct. Sean Payton keeps finding ways to win with backup quarterbacks, but how long can they sustain that success. Matt Ryan was abysmal last week against the Panthers, and the Saints defense love to come after Matty Ice.
6. Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens -6. Cooper Rush found success against the Vikings and now they get Lamar Jackson. Jackson coming off a bye week should be fresh, but the Ravens are still beat up in some key spots. Staying away in the purple matchup for this week.
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