Saturday NFL Bets: Week 15 Matchup Breakdowns
For some reason, the NFL decided they wanted to go up against conference championship Saturday. So, we’ve got a double-header this Saturday. I’m not complaining. Let’s break down some of the best Saturday NFL bets.
What we’ve compiled: matchups to target for props, players you might want to avoid, and the lines themselves. I’ll be using grading from PFF for much of my analysis.
If you’re interested in the Sunday slate, I’ve broken down every single rushing and receiving matchup, which can be found here.
For all picks and props, make sure you’re following (@griffybets) along on Twitter.
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos
4:30 PM EST, NFL
Line: Bills -5.5
Points: 49
Buffalo (10-3) overall, (8-5) ATS
The Bills are rolling, winners of three straight. Their most recent, a Sunday night win over the Steelers, vaults Buffalo into the AFC’s elite.
Josh Allen and these receivers have been moving the ball with ease. The Bills offensive identity is to pass the ball all over the field, currently a top-ten PFF team at both passing and receiving.
After being benched for fumbling issues two weeks prior, running back Zack Moss played 14 more snaps than Devin Singletary a week ago. I would stay away from this RB room with so much uncertainty.
Denver (5-8) overall, (8-5) ATS
Denver won their most recent game, 32-27, against the Panthers. The Broncos 8-5 ATS record is tied for second-best in the NFL, and they’ve kept games close off the back of their defense, currently the third strongest in the NFL.
Despite a very promising group of young receivers – the offense grades out quite poorly. If you’re considering taking a WR in this game, a look at snap counts and target shares from the past three weeks:
- Tim Patrick (81% average snaps played, 11 targets)
- Jerry Jeudy (66%, 9)
- KJ Hamler (63%, 8)
Player Props to Target: Saturday NFL Bets
As always – a breakdown of the matchups. For all NFL Week 15 games: NFL Week 15 Preview – Player Prop Breakdowns for Every NFL Game
Buffalo on Offense
Running grade (18) vs. Broncos Rush Defense grade (6) -12
Receiving grade (4) vs. Broncos Pass Coverage grade (4)
Denver on Offense
Running grade (10) vs. Bills Rush defense grade (32) +22
Receiving grade (26) vs. Bills Pass coverage grade (18) -8
Takeaway
This Broncos defense is tougher than you’d think. They may be able to keep this game close and cover the 5.5-point spread. The clear prop target is running back Melvin Gordon. We bet on his over here last week and he hit, so let’s keep it rolling for another week.
- Melvin Gordon OVER 53.5 rushing yards
Gordon is the clear top running back in Denver, averaging 72 yards per game his last five. As the only discrepancy from above, I’ll be taking it. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the Bills rush defense ranking at 32 to conclude “they are not good at stopping the run.”
Game Pick: Saturday NFL Bets
This Denver defense has me leaning towards Broncos to cover the +5.5 at home. The Bills are the better team, with a much better offense. Still, the Broncos held the Chiefs to just 22 points two weeks ago – I foresee a similar situation playing out again. The Bill may still win, but this spread is big for a road team playing a great defense.
Lean: Denver +5.5
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers
8:15 PM EST, NFL
Line: Packers -8
Points: 51.5
Carolina (4-9) overall, (7-6) ATS
The Panthers are sliding, losing seven of their past eight games. Christian McCaffrey is out again, and this defense has seriously struggled, coming in with the 28th ranked defense, according to PFF.
Mike Davis has been a solid option in place of McCaffrey, and if you’re looking to take anyone on this team tonight for daily fantasy, he would be your guy.
DJ Moore is back this week after a stint on the Covid-19 list, and it will be he, Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel splitting duties at wide receiver. In such a crowded group, I tend to stay away. Robby Anderson may be the man to keep an eye on, he’s gobbled up 115 targets this year. Moore, with two less games played, still has only 89.
Green Bay (10-3) overall, (8-5) ATS
The Packers offense is seemingly unstoppable at the moment. Rodgers is picking teams apart with ease and now gets the fourth-worst pass coverage team in the NFL.
Aaron Jones and Davante Adams have both had massive years, and should be poised for a big game tonight.
I wouldn’t worry about a trap game here for Green Bay. The Packers leapfrogged the Saints for the top-spot in the NFC and I have a feeling they might just want to hold on to it.
Player Props to Target: Saturday NFL Bets
Let’s take a look at how these units compare:
Carolina on Offense
Running grade (5) vs. Packers Rush Defense grade (19) +14
Receiving grade (23) vs. Packers Pass Coverage grade (20) -3
Green Bay on Offense
Running grade (7) vs. Panthers Rush defense grade (25) +18
Receiving grade (12) vs. Panthers Pass coverage grade (29) +17
Takeaway
Just another week of targeting this Packers offense. I should note, Green Bay is ranked as the top passing team in PFF – this is a choice matchup for Rodgers as well. I’ll be looking for all three of Rodgers, Jones and Adams in this one. Mike Davis offers some value – but the game script suggests they could be abandoning the run early.
- Aaron Rodgers OVER 295.5 passing yards
- Davante Adams OVER 87.5 receiving yards
- Aaron Jones OVER 64.5 rushing yards
I’m bunching these together to keep it simple for y’all. I said I’m taking them all, and I’m taking them all.
Game Pick: Saturday NFL Bets
Eight points is a bit much for me in this game, but I love Packers over 30.5 points. Disclaimer: I took the Packers team total a week ago and they burned me, needing one more point. However – the logic is there and I’m trusting the process. This Green Bay team does whatever it wants on offense and now gets one of the softest defenses in the entire league. I’m ready for a big game from the boys at Lambeau tonight.
That will do it for today! Make sure you’re following along on Twitter, @griffybets, for all things props, picks and weather. Good luck today, let’s get in a groove before Sunday.
