Taphorn’s Twelve Pack NFL Week 17
Here’s your weekly twelve-pack of NFL betting advice, drink at your own risk.
Crack open six bets that I like and six bets that I don’t, and pray for a great weekend without a hangover.
Taphorn’s Twelve Pack: NFL Week 17
Week 16 Record: 4-2; +2 units; Year-to-date Record: 57-38-1; +17.0 units
Six Bets I Like:
1. Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Washington Football Team
The Eagles find themselves miraculously on the cusp of making the playoffs. Washington is coming off one of the worst losses of the season against Dallas a week ago and is injured across the board.
Jalen Hurts and the Philly defense are too much for Washington in this one, and the Eagles get one step closer to the playoffs.
Bet amount: 1 unit.
2. Los Angeles Rams -4 at Baltimore Ravens.
The Rams can clinch the NFC West with a win and a Cardinals loss, something that seemed unlikely just a few weeks back.
John Harbaugh has gotten a lot out of the Ravens despite the team’s injuries throughout the year. Lamar Jackson should be back in this one, but the Rams are playing at a high level and cover this one on the road.
Bet amount: 2 units.
3. Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys -5.
Finally, after multiple weeks of “slumping” the Cowboys’ offense joined the defense in playing at a high level.
The Cowboys were up 42-7 at halftime on the Washington Football Team and dominated in all three phases of the game, with touchdowns by each unit.
Arizona has lost three of four and needs to find some mojo before the playoffs begin, but Dallas isn’t likely to be where they find it.
Bet amount: 2 units.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -12.5 at New York Jets.
“Hello Darkness my old friend” rings throughout Metlife Stadium as the Jets welcome their personal Grim Reaper, Tom Brady, back after a year away.
The defending Super Bowl Champs, albeit shorthanded, square up against rookie Zach Wilson. Brady should find solace in picking apart New York’s bottom-ranked defense.
Bet amount: ½ unit.
5. Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans -3.5.
The Dolphins became the first team to lose seven games in a row in a season and also win seven in a row.
Tennessee puts an end to that streak with how they’re playing right now. Mike Vrabel’s team just continues to find ways to win despite all of the adversity they’ve faced during the year, and it’s hard to see them letting up now.
Bet amount: ½ unit.
While the Dolphins might be on a seven game win streak, expect Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans to end it in Week 17.6. New York Giants at Chicago Bears -5.5.
The Bears are one of the worst teams in the league against the spread this year and are starting their third quarterback in the past month.
Luckily for Chicago, that quarterback is a former Super Bowl MVP. Neither team is playing for anything at this point, but the Giants front office will be grinning throughout this one as they hold both teams’ first round picks in next year’s draft.
Bet amount: 1 unit
6 Bets to Avoid:
1. Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts -6.5.
Carson Wentz is out for this one due to COVID protocols. Indy survived the Cardinals a week ago with a depleted offensive line and Darius Leonard sidelined, so it’s feasible they could still come out of this one victorious.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots -16.5.
This is just a massive line, but it may not be unwarranted. Trevor Lawrence registered just one touchdown pass between Halloween and Christmas. Bill Belichick cracks a smile just thinking about what his defense can do against this rookie.
3. Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 at Cincinnati Bengals.
This could be the most intriguing game of the week. Joe Burrow and his receivers feasted against a weakened Ravens team last week for the second time this season. If the Bengals have genuinely leaped to be in contention in the AFC, this is an excellent game to prove it.
4. Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers -6.5.
The Chargers had arguably the most disappointing loss of the season last week, getting blown out by the Texans. They now find themselves battling to make a wild card spot, and Denver is right there with them.
The Broncos’ defense has propped them up for weeks now, but the loss of Teddy Bridgewater is looking like it’s too much to overcome.
5. Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers -12.5.
Another double-digit point spread facing the Texans this week. This one could be in major jeopardy with Jimmy Garoppolo’s thumb injury. If Trey Lance starts this one, it’s hard to believe they cover a line this large.
6. Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks -7.
It still amazes me that this line would be in question. Dan Campbell has the Lions battling each week and giving teams trouble that have no business being in close games against his team.
The Seahawks continue to disappoint weekly, capped off by a home loss to the Nick Foles-led Bears.
