Taphorn’s Twelve Pack: NFL Week 15

Here’s your weekly twelve pack of NFL betting advice, drink at your own risk. Crack open six bets that I like and six NFL Week 15 bets that I don’t and pray for a great weekend without a hangover.

Taphorn’s Twelve Pack: NFL Week 15

Week 14 Record: 6-0; +7 units; Year-to-date Record: 52-31-1; +18.0 units

6 Bets I Like

1. Dallas Cowboys -10.5 at New York Giants. The Cowboys dominated on the defensive side of the ball against Washington, but the offense is still working through some struggles. Dak Prescott’s play has dipped the past few weeks, but his record against the Giants is nearly flawless. Expect a big bounce back game against a beat up New York team. Bet amount: 2 units.

2. Green Bay Packers -7 at Baltimore Ravens. The Packers and Aaron Rodgers have their sights locked on the NFC’s one-seed and won’t let anyone stand in their way. The Ravens are likely the best opponent left on the schedule, but Lamar Jackson left last week’s game injured and the defensive backfield will be without all of their original starters. Bet amount: 2 units.

3. Tennessee Titans +1 at Pittsburgh Steelers. Tennessee has had a knack of beating good teams this season but not getting up for lesser opponents. The Steelers are smack dab in the middle of being good and bad so we’ll see how Vrabel’s guys handle this one. Titans stay in play for the AFC’s top seed. Bet amount: 1 unit.

4. Atlanta Falcons +9.5 at San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers have been playing good football lately, and I fully expect them to win this game, but 9.5 points is a large line to cover for teams with similar records. Atlanta may want to cover George Kittle this week, because it seems the last few opponents haven’t made that a priority. Bet amount: ½ unit.

5. New England Patriots +2.5 at Indianapolis Colts. This one’s a big matchup for seeding in the AFC playoff picture. The Patriots currently sit in the top spot, while the Colts are trying to catch Tennessee in the AFC South. Overall, Bill Belichick gets the best of Carson Wentz at the end of this one. Bet amount: 1 unit.

6. New York Jets at Miami Dolphins -9.5. Miami is coming off a bye at home and welcomes the Jets to South Beach. I’m sure the New York players are looking forward to the warm weather but that could bring distractions. Brian Flores’ defense is starting to look like it did a year ago and Zach Wilson hasn’t shown the improvement to think the Jets win this one. Bet amount: ½ unit.

6 Bets to Avoid

1. Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns -2.5. This is one of the multiple games across the league that has numerous players hitting the COVID list. Without knowing wo’s going to be available to play in this one it’s hard to lean either way, so best just to avoid it.

2. Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles -6. Another game surrounded by uncertainty. Washington is dealing with a COVID outbreak and multiple injuries. The Eagles are coming off a bye week, but Jalen Hurts is still questionable to start the game. Too many unknowns to take the Eagles by a touchdown.

3. Minnesota Vikings -5.5 at Chicago Bears. Chicago gave fans a glimmer of hope when they took the lead on the Packers a week ago, but Aaron Rodgers made sure that was only temporary. Minnesota is still battling for a playoff spot, but they find a way to make every game a nail biter regardless of opponent.

4. New Orleans Saints +11.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs have struggled with New Orleans the past few seasons, including earlier this year when it should have been a lopsided matchup. Hard to bet against Sean Payton and hard to bet against Tom Brady, so with this large spread I’ll stay away.

5. Arizona Cardinals -12.5 at Detroit Lions. The best and worst teams in the NFC square up this weekend. Arizona just sent DeAndre Hopkins to IR thanks to a knee injury and Kyler Murray gave the team a scare at the end of Monday night’s loss to the Rams. Arizona should have the talent to run away with this one, but the Lions find a way to fight most weeks.

6. Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles -5.5. The Rams are another team hit hard with COVID list additions. The game has been moved to Tuesday, but it remains to be seen who will be available for Los Angeles. For that reason, again, not willing to pick a side here.