Are The Odds Too High For The Miami Dolphins?
The Miami Dolphins are massive underdogs on Sunday against the Bills. Can they pull off a miracle?
Are The Odds Too High For The Miami Dolphins?
The Bills go into Wildcard Weekend as massive favorites against a banged-up Miami squad. They seem primed and ready to bring home the Lombardi, being given the second-lowest odds at +400 behind Kansas City. However, the Dolphins, even without Tua Tagovailoa, are not to be overlooked.
The Spread
Vegas is giving the Dolphins +13.5 points against the Bills. At first glance, this seems reasonable. After all, the Dolphins are without their star QB, and rookie Skylar Thompson isn’t exactly the poster child of playoff experience. But digging a little deeper, especially into the previous matchups between the two teams, QB play was not entirely a huge factor for Miami.
The first game between the two clubs this season was relatively low scoring, ending in a 21-19 victory for the Miami Dolphins. In that game, Tua only attempted 18 passes, completing 13 for 186 yards.
On the other side of the field, Josh Allen had a monster performance, attempting 63 passes and completing 42 for a whopping 400 yards. His team still lost. Neither team really ran the ball all that much either, less than 100 yards each. Miami had a total of 212 yards of offense, just more than half of what the opposing QB had himself, and still walked away victorious.
I don’t believe this game is going to be the blowout that Vegas is anticipating. Miami’s defense has shown it can hold good teams to fewer points than they are used to scoring, and the offense does not need to put up giant numbers to stay in games. If Thompson can make smart decisions with the football, and the rest of the team can rise to the playoff occasion, it may come down to the last 5 minutes.
With that assumption, taking 13 points seems like an easy decision.
The Moneyline
This is the juicy steak that Vegas is tempting us with; the Dolphins are +660 underdogs. This seems way too high for the playoffs, almost like they’re daring us to take it. And by golly, take it we…might. I do believe this is going to be a closer game than Vegas says, but I’m on the fence about whether or not Maimi has a real chance to close it out.
If the game truly does come down to the last few drives, Josh Allen obviously has the advantage in the clutch. He is arguably a top 2 QB in the NFL right now, and any sane person would rather put the ball in his hands than those of any backup with the game on the line.
But defenses make clutch plays too.
What if the Bills are already looking on to Kansas City? They probably aren’t. They’re professionals…but they could be. What if Mike McDaniel’s charisma alone can will the Miami Dolphins to victory? We’ve never seen him as a head coach in a playoff game, and the expectations for him before the season were certainly shattered quickly. Could the same thing happen here? I don’t know. All I can tell you is that anything can happen in football.
Take the points, if anything. Take the Miami Dolphins moneyline if you dare.
