NFL Thursday Night Week 11 Best Bets: Titans vs. Packers
After several weeks of “blah” Thursday Night games, Amazon Prime will finally get a matchup that at least has some allure, with the Tennessee Titans facing the Green Bay Packers on November 17. The Titans rely heavily on star running back Derrick Henry, while the Packers still are as good as Aaron Rodgers is that day.
Tennessee (6-3) sits atop the AFC South at 6-3. The Titans bounced back nicely from their disappointing loss to AFC-leading Chiefs the previous week by defeating the Broncos 17-10 on Sunday. Ryan Tannehill tossed two touchdown passes in his first action in three weeks to help the Titans pick up their fifth win in the last six weeks.
Meanwhile, Green Bay (4-5) kept its playoff hopes alive by snapping a five-game losing streak with a huge 31-28 come-from-behind victory over Dallas. Rodgers tossed a season-high three touchdowns, and the Packers rolled up 207 yards on the ground, marking the fourth time this year they have totaled at least 199 rushing yards.
Both teams have injury concerns heading into the game. The status of several Titans defensive players – including Jeffery Simmons, Amani Hooker, Kristian Fullerton, and Bud Dupree – along with center Ben Jones and kicker Randy Bullock are the players to keep an eye on.
Similarly, some injury concerns involve key Packers, with Rodger’s thumb being the biggest. WR Romeo Doubs isn’t expected to play, and it doesn’t look good for tackle David Bakhtiari, linebacker DeVonte Campbell, cornerback Shermar Jean-Charles, and offensive lineman Elgton Jenkins, as they have not practiced the past couple of days.
Green Bay is favored by three points, with the over/under set at 42.0 points. The Titans are listed at +140 on the money line, while the Packers are at -165. Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m . (ET) at Lambeau Field.
Under 42 Points (-105)
I really like the under here. Both offenses have struggled to score points this year, and the weather is not predicted to be conducive to throwing the ball a lot. Plus, both teams rank in the top three in the league in third-down defense and the top 10 in the red zone defensively.
Furthermore, the Packers have the propensity to turn the ball over at least once a game, and the Titans are one of the best at creating turnovers. The Packers’ defense has forced six turnovers over their last four contests. None of the Titans’ last six games have seen more than 42 points put on the board.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Westbrook-Ikhine receiving prop bet is a little too low. The third-year wide receiver had a breakout game against the Broncos on Sunday as he registered a career-high 119 yards and five receptions on eight targets, which ties the most targets of his career. Westbrook-Ikhine has started seven of the nine games he has appeared in and has been on the field on 70% of the Titans’ offensive plays in five straight games.
Westbrook-Ikhine has surpassed 21 receiving yards in the last three games where he caught a pass. He is the Titans’ big-play receiver, averaging 21.2 yards per reception and a little over 11 yards per target. Moreover, the Packers’ defense is susceptible to giving up big pass plays, allowing 36 of at least 20 yards (third most) and four of 40 or more yards.
A.J. Dillon Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
The Packers are one of the best running teams in the league. While the Titans own the No. 2 run defense in the league, they are coming off a short week and maybe once again without some key players on that side.
Dillon averages 11 carries and 4.1 yards per carry. He is coming off a solid 13-carry, 65-yard performance against the Cowboys, marking the ninth time this season he has totaled 32 or more yards on the ground. Additionally, Aaron Jones has been dealing with an ankle/shin issue for the past couple of weeks, so Dillon may get more work than usual.
