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Texans vs Cowboys Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 11

ByUSA Wager

The Texans are the heavy favorite on the money line at -364 as they face the Cowboys on Monday, November 18th at 8:15 ET on ESPN. Houston’s record is needed, and the Cowboys’ record is also missing. The Texans are -7.5 point favorites on the road in this non-conference matchup, and the over/under line is set at 42 points.

Prediction at a Glance for Cowboys vs Texans

  • We have the Texans winning this one by a score of 28 to 21
  • Even though we like the Texans to win, our ATS pick is to take the Cowboys at +7.5
  • Look for this game to go over the line of 42 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Texans -7.5 | Cowboys +7.5
  • Total: 42
  • MoneyLine: Texans -364 | Cowboys +288

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Texans vs. Cowboys Prediction: MoneyLine

Heading into week 11, the Texans rank 18th in our offensive power rankings, scoring 22.4 points per game, which is 14th in the NFL. They are 15th in passing yards per game (218.7) and 10th in passing attempts, with 34.4 per game. On the ground, they average 119.4 rushing yards per game, ranking 18th, on 28.4 attempts per game. Houston has struggled in the red zone, converting only 20.6% of their opportunities, which ranks 24th in the league.

In week 10, the Texans scored 26 points in a loss to the Lions, with all of their points coming in the first half. C.J. Stroud threw for 232 yards, completing 19 of 33 passes, with one touchdown and two interceptions. Joe Mixon had 25 carries for 46 yards, and John Metchie III led the team with 74 receiving yards on 5 catches.

Heading into week 11, the Cowboys rank 25th in our offensive power rankings. They lead the league in passing attempts per game with 39.4, resulting in 231.3 passing yards per game, which ranks 10th. On the ground, they are 27th in rushing attempts and 31st in rushing yards per game, averaging 83.7 yards. Dallas ranks 21st in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion percentage, converting 35.9% of their attempts, but they are 2nd in red zone conversion percentage.

In week 10, Cooper Rush struggled, throwing for just 45 yards on 13/23 passing. Jake Ferguson led the team with 24 receiving yards, and Rico Dowdle had 53 rushing yards on 12 carries. Dallas scored only 6 points against the Eagles, failing to score in the 2nd half.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Texans -364 (Bet Now)

Texans vs. Cowboys Prediction: Total

Despite forcing five interceptions, the Texans’ defense still gave up 240 passing yards and two touchdowns to the Lions in their most recent game. They allowed Detroit to convert 58.3% of their third down attempts and gave up 345 total yards. Houston struggled to generate pressure, as they did not record any sacks and had a -6 differential in tackles for loss.

On the positive side, Houston held the Lions to 105 yards on 32 rushing attempts. Even with the five interceptions, the Texans still fell 26-23 to the Lions.

In the passing game, the Cowboys allowed 161 yards on 15 completions, but they did come up with five sacks and one interception. However, the defense struggled to stop the run, as the Eagles rushed for 187 yards on 38 attempts. Overall, the Cowboys gave up 348 total yards in their 34-6 loss to the Eagles. Dallas also allowed two passing touchdowns and forced the Eagles to convert on just 36.4% of their third down attempts. The Eagles also averaged 7.3 yards per attempt in the passing game.

  • Free Total Prediction OVER 42 (Bet Now)

Texans vs. Cowboys Prediction: Spread

Despite two straight losses, the Texans remain atop the AFC South with a 6-4 record, including a 3-0 mark in division play. They rank 4th in the AFC and have a 94.8% chance of making the playoffs and a 92.6% chance of winning their division. Houston is 4-1 at home but just 2-3 on the road.

Heading into week 11, the Texans are 13th in our power rankings. They have an average scoring margin of -0.2 points per game and are 4-6 against the spread. Their O/U record is 2-7-1, with their games averaging 45 points compared to a 45.6-point line.

  • Across Houston’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. The team’s record vs the spread was just 1-2, in addition to an over-under mark of 0-2-1.
  • Through their last five road contests, the Texans offense has averaged 22 points per game while allowing an average of 25. Houston posted an overall record of 2-3 while going 2-3 ATS.

After a week 5 win over the Steelers, the Cowboys have now lost four straight games, including a 34-6 home loss to the Eagles in week 10. Dallas was a 7-point underdog in that game, and they couldn’t cover the spread, bringing their record to 2-7 ATS this season. They rank 32nd in our power rankings and have just a 0.9% chance of making the playoffs.

The Cowboys are 0-4 at home this season, but they are 3-2 on the road. In division games, they are 1-1, and they have a 1-5 record in conference play. Their O/U record is 5-4, with the under hitting in their last two games.

  • Through their last three regular season contests, Dallas has a record of 0-3. Against the spread, Dallas went 0-3 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 2-1.
  • Across the Cowboys last five home games, the team averaged 23 points per game while allowing 21. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 2-3, while going 3-2 straight-up.
  • Free Spread Prediction Cowboys +7.5 (Bet Now)

Texans vs. Cowboys Pick: Cowboys +7.5

Our pick vs. the spread for this Texans vs. Cowboys matchup is to take the Cowboys to cover as home underdogs. Currently, the Cowboys are sitting at +7.5 point underdogs at home, and we have the Texans pulling off the upset by a score of 26-20.

For the over/under line, we are leaning towards taking the over, with a projected combined score of 46 points and the line sitting at just 42 points heading into this one.

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