Lutz’s Locks For Week 4 Of The NFL

Texans vs Chiefs Prediction & NFL Odds For The Divisional round

ByUSA Wager

The Texans and Chiefs will kick off at 4:30 ET on Saturday, January 18th at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. This AFC matchup is being televised on ABC, with the Chiefs favored at -472 on the money line. The Texans are +364 on the money line and +8 on the point spread, with the over/under line set at 41.5 points.

Prediction at a Glance for Chiefs vs Texans

  • We have the Chiefs winning this one by a score of 23 to 20
  • Even though we like the Chiefs to win, our ATS pick is to take the Texans at +8
  • Look for this game to go over the line of 41.5 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Texans +8 | Chiefs -8
  • Total: 41.5
  • MoneyLine: Texans +364 | Chiefs -472

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Texans vs. Chiefs Prediction: MoneyLine

Our offensive power rankings have the Texans at 20th in the NFL, and they are 15th in scoring, averaging 22.4 points per game. Houston ranks 18th in total yards per game (325.8) and 20th in passing yards per game (210.4), despite being 9th in passing attempts. On the ground, they are 21st in rushing attempts and 14th in rushing yards per game, averaging 115.4. The Texans are 17th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion rate and 15th in red zone efficiency, though they rank 10th in red zone attempts.

In the Wild Card round, the Texans scored 32 points against the Chargers, with C.J. Stroud throwing for 282 yards on 22/33 passing, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Nico Collins had 7 catches for 122 yards, and Joe Mixon rushed for 106 yards on 25 carries. Houston scored 12 points in the 4th quarter and converted 2 of 4 red zone opportunities.

Heading into the divisional round, the Chiefs are 8th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 14th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 22.6, and are 16th in yards per game with 327.6. Kansas City is 13th in passing yards per game (222.4) and 6th in passing attempts, with 35.3 per game. On the ground, they rank 22nd in rushing yards per game and 16th in attempts. Despite being 7th in red zone attempts, they are 23rd in red zone conversion percentage at 13.8%. However, they have been strong on third down, ranking 2nd with a 48.5% conversion rate.

In week 18, the Chiefs were shut out by the Broncos, losing 38-0. Carson Wentz started at QB, throwing for 98 yards on 10/17 passing and was sacked 4 times. Kansas City managed just 27 rushing yards on 11 attempts, with Carson Steele leading the way with 25 yards on 8 carries. Nikko Remigio had 2 catches for 48 yards. The Chiefs struggled on third down, converting only 1 of 9 attempts.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Chiefs -472 (Bet Now)

Texans vs. Chiefs Prediction: Total

The Texans’ defense was dominant in their 32-12 win over the Chargers, coming up with four interceptions and allowing just 211 passing yards. Houston held the Chargers to a 43.8% completion percentage and limited them to 12 points. They defended the run well, allowing only 50 rushing yards on 18 attempts.

On third downs, the Texans allowed the Chargers to convert just 27.3% of their chances. Despite giving up four sacks, Houston’s defense kept the Chargers in check throughout the game.

In a 38-0 loss to the Broncos, the Chiefs’ defense struggled to get off the field, as Denver converted 71.4% of their third down attempts. The Chiefs allowed 479 yards and 321 yards through the air, with Denver completing 89.7% of their passes. The Chiefs gave up four passing touchdowns and failed to record any sacks.

On the ground, the Chiefs gave up 158 yards on 43 attempts, with their opponents averaging 3.7 yards per attempt. Additionally, Kansas City lost the tackles for loss battle, finishing with a -3 differential.

  • Free Total Prediction OVER 41.5 (Bet Now)

Texans vs. Chiefs Prediction: Spread

With a 10-7 record, the Texans finished the regular season first in the AFC South. They went 5-1 in division play and 9-4 against conference opponents, earning the 4th seed in the AFC. Houston ranked 16th in our power rankings heading into the playoffs.

Against the spread, the Texans were 8-9-1, with a +1.1 scoring margin. They went 4-6-1 as favorites and 4-3 as underdogs. Their O/U record was 7-10-1, with their games averaging 43.8 points (O/U line: 44.3).

  • The Texans have posted a 2-1 record in their previous three games. This also includes going 2-1 ATS and an over-under mark of 2-1.
  • When looking at their past five road matchups, Houston has an ATS record of 2-2-1 while averaging 22 per game. The team went 3-2 overall in these games.

The Chiefs finished the regular season with a 15-2 record, putting them first in the AFC. They went 5-1 in division games and 10-2 in the conference, and they were a perfect 8-0 at home. Kansas City was 6th in our power rankings heading into week 18, but they may drop after a 38-0 loss to the Broncos. The Chiefs were 11-point underdogs in that game, and they couldn’t cover the spread. The O/U line was 40.5 points, and the teams combined for 38.

Before that, the Chiefs had three straight wins, including a 29-10 victory over the Steelers in week 17. They covered the 1.5-point spread in that game. In week 16, they beat the Texans 27-19, and they narrowly won 21-17 over the Chargers in week 15. Kansas City is 7-9-1 against the spread this season, with an average scoring margin of +3.5 points per game.

  • Spanning across their last three games, Kansas City have gone 3-0. Their record vs the spread in these matchups is less impressive at 1-2, while posting an over-under record of 1-2.
  • Through their last five home games, Kansas City has an ATS record of just 2-3. However, their overall record was 3-2 while averaging 20 points per game.
  • Free Spread Prediction Texans +8 (Bet Now)

Texans vs. Chiefs Pick: Texans +8

Our pick vs. the spread for this week two postseason matchup between the Texans and Chiefs is to take the Texans to cover as road underdogs. Even though the point spread has the Chiefs at -8, we actually have the Texans pulling off the upset by a score of 25-23.

For an over/under pick, we really like the over, with a predicted combined score of 48 points. With the O/U line sitting at just 41.5 points, we think there is a lot of value in taking the over in this one.

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