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Saints vs Packers Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 16

ByUSA Wager

ESPN will broadcast the week 16 NFC matchup between the Packers and Saints, which is set to kick off at 8:15 ET. The Packers are heavily favored with a money line of -879, while the Saints’ money line odds are +577. The over/under line is currently at 42 points. The Saints are +13.5 point underdogs on the road at Lambeau Field.

Prediction at a Glance for Packers vs Saints

  • We have the Packers winning this one by a score of 26 to 14
  • Even though we like the Packers to win, our ATS pick is to take the Saints at +13.5
  • We see this game finishing below the line of 42 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Saints +13.5 | Packers -13.5
  • Total: 42
  • MoneyLine: Saints +577 | Packers -879

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Saints vs. Packers Prediction: MoneyLine

Heading into week 16, the Saints rank 18th in our offensive power rankings. They are 15th in the NFL in both points per game (22.1) and yards per game (334.6). New Orleans is 20th in passing yards per game (210.2) and 18th in passing attempts, while ranking 10th in rushing yards per game (124.4) on 28 attempts per game. The Saints are 18th in the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage, converting 37.4% of their attempts.

Spencer Rattler took over at QB in week 15, throwing for 135 yards and a touchdown on 10/21 passing. New Orleans scored 12 points in the 4th quarter against Washington after being shut out in the first half. Marquez Valdes-Scantling led the team with 64 receiving yards, and Kendre Miller had 46 rushing yards on 9 carries.

Jordan Love has been on a roll, posting passer ratings of 123 in week 15, 111 in week 14, and 129 in week 13, without throwing an interception in any of those games. Against the Seahawks, he went 20/27 for 229 yards and 2 touchdowns. In week 14, he threw for 206 yards and a touchdown, and in week 13, he had 274 yards and 2 touchdowns. Christian Watson led the Packers in receiving in week 15 with 56 yards on 3 catches, after his 114-yard performance in week 14. Josh Jacobs rushed for 94 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries in week 15.

Green Bay ranks 7th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 27.1 points per game. They are 4th in the NFL in total yards per game (375.4) and rushing yards per game (144.4), while ranking 11th in passing yards per game (231.1). The Packers are 15th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a rate of 37.9%.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Packers -879 (Bet Now)

Saints vs. Packers Prediction: Total

In their 20-19 loss to the Commanders, the Saints’ defense allowed 8 sacks but still came up short. They gave up 137 rushing yards on 35 attempts and allowed 189 passing yards on 80.6% completions. Washington converted on 52.9% of their third down attempts and scored two passing touchdowns.

Despite the 8 sacks, the Saints’ offense struggled, and they lost the game. The Saints’ defense also had 8 sacks and won the tackles for loss battle with a +4 differential.

In their 30-13 win over the Seahawks, the Packers’ defense was dominant, allowing just 128 yards passing and forcing two interceptions. Seattle managed only 80 yards rushing on 16 attempts. Green Bay’s defense also recorded seven sacks and held the Seahawks to a 30.8% conversion rate on third down.

The Packers’ pass rush was especially effective, winning the QB hit differential by six and generating a lot of tackles for loss. This performance helped them limit Seattle to just 13 points and 208 total yards.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction UNDER 42 (Bet Now)

Saints vs. Packers Prediction: Spread

Heading into week 16, the Saints sit 30th in our power rankings and have a 5-9 record, which includes a 2-4 mark on the road and a 3-5 record at home. New Orleans is 3rd in the NFC South with a 2-3 division record, and they are 4-6 in conference play. Our projections give them a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs or winning the division.

Against the spread, the Saints are 6-8, with a -0.2 average scoring margin. They are 5-5 as underdogs and 1-3 as favorites. Their O/U record is 7-7, and the under has hit in their last three games. Their matchups have averaged 44.4 points per game, compared to an average line of 43.8.

  • Across New Orleans’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. Against the spread, New Orleans went 1-2 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 0-3.
  • In their last five games away from home, the Saints have a straight up record of 1-4 while going 1-4 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 16 points per game in these contests.

With a 10-4 record, the Packers have a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs, according to our projections. However, their 1-3 division record has them in 3rd place in the NFC North, and they have just a 0.6% chance of winning the division. Despite this, Green Bay ranks 3rd in our NFL power rankings heading into week 16.

Against the spread, the Packers are 7-6-1 this season, with a +6.6 scoring margin. In week 15, they covered the 3-point spread in a 30-13 win over the Seahawks. The combined scoring of 43 points fell short of the 48-point line.

  • The Packers have posted a 2-1 record in their previous three games. Against the spread, the team is 2-1 in these same games while going 1-2 on the over/under.
  • Although Green Bay has a straight up record of 4-1 in their last five home games, they have not held up as well vs. the spread going 2-2-1. The team averaged 27 points per game in these games.
  • Free Spread Prediction Saints +13.5 (Bet Now)

Saints vs. Packers Pick: Saints +13.5

With the point spread sitting at 13.5 in favor of the Saints, we are going to take the Packers to pull off the upset in this week 16 matchup. Our final score prediction has the Packers winning 21-20, making them a great value pick at +13.5.

For this game, we are also looking to take the under, as the O/U line is just 42 points, and our projections have these teams combining for 41 points.

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