Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 12

The Patriots are +274 on the money line as they face the Dolphins on Sunday, November 24th at 1:00 ET on CBS. The Dolphins are the heavy favorite with a money line of -346. The Patriots are looking to add to their record, and the Dolphins are looking to add to theirs, with the over/under line set at 46 points. The Dolphins are favored by -7 points in this week 12 AFC East matchup, which is being played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL.

Prediction at a Glance for Dolphins vs Patriots

• We have the Dolphins winning this one by a score of 26 to 16
• Not only do we have the Dolphins winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -7
• We see this game finishing below the line of 46 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

• Spread: Patriots +7 | Dolphins -7
• Total: 46
• MoneyLine: Patriots +274 | Dolphins -346

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction: MoneyLine

Heading into week 12, the Patriots sit 25th in our offensive power rankings. They are 28th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 16.5, and rank 31st in yards per game with 281.2. New England is 13th in passing attempts but only 30th in passing yards per game, averaging 165.9. On the ground, they are 21st in both rushing attempts and yards per game, with 115.3. The Patriots rank 24th in 3rd-down conversions, with a 35.3% success rate, but are 10th in red zone conversions.

In week 11, Drake Maye threw for 282 yards (30/40) and 2 touchdowns, with 1 interception. Rhamondre Stevenson had 73 rushing yards on 20 carries, while Kendrick Bourne led the team with 5 catches for 70 yards and a touchdown. New England scored 9 points in the 4th quarter against the Rams, converting 6 of 14 3rd downs and 2 of 5 red zone attempts.

Heading into week 12, the Dolphins sit 21st in our offensive power rankings. They are 25th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 18.1 points per game, and they rank 22nd in both passing yards (197 per game) and total yards (319 per game). Miami is 9th in rushing attempts and 11th in rushing yards, with 122 per game. They have been strong on 3rd down, converting 42.6% of their attempts, which is 9th in the NFL, and they also rank 9th in red zone conversion percentage.

Tua Tagovailoa had a big game in week 11, throwing for 288 yards and 3 touchdowns with no interceptions, completing 28 of 36 passes. Jonnu Smith led the team with 101 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns, while De’Von Achane had 73 rushing yards on 17 carries. Miami scored 17 points in the 4th quarter against the Raiders.

• Free MoneyLine Prediction Dolphins -346 (Bet Now)

Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction: Total

In their 28-22 loss to the Rams, the Patriots’ defense gave up four passing touchdowns and allowed a big play through the air, as the Rams averaged 10.9 yards per attempt. New England struggled to generate pressure, as they didn’t record a sack and lost the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials. Despite this, the Patriots did well on third downs, allowing the Rams to convert just 25% of their third down attempts.

Overall, the Patriots gave up 295 passing yards on 18 completions and allowed 107 rushing yards on 24 attempts. Their inability to defend the big play in the passing game was a major reason for their defensive struggles in this one.

In their 34-19 win over the Raiders, the Dolphins’ defense allowed 328 total yards. They defended the run well, allowing just 60 yards on 16 attempts. Despite this, Las Vegas had success on third down, converting 57.1% of their attempts. Miami’s defense gave up 268 passing yards, with opposing quarterbacks completing 69.8% of their passes. They did come up with one interception and recorded three sacks.

Even though they allowed two passing touchdowns, the Dolphins’ defense made it tough for the Raiders to establish the run, holding them to 3.8 yards per attempt. Miami also had more quarterback hits than Las Vegas, with a positive differential of +2, but they did lose the tackles for loss battle.

• Free MoneyLine Prediction UNDER 46 (Bet Now)

Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction: Spread

Heading into week 12, the Patriots sit at 3-8 after a 28-22 loss to the Rams in week 11. New England was unable to build on their week 10 win over the Bears, which snapped a four-game losing streak. They were +6 underdogs in that game but came away with a 16-point victory. The Patriots have been underdogs in all of their games this season and are 4-6-1 against the spread.

Our power rankings have New England 27th this week, and they have just a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs. They are currently 4th in the AFC East with a 1-2 division record. The Patriots are 2-4 on the road and 1-4 at home this season.

• Over their last three regular season games, the Patriots have gone 1-2 straight up. They have held up well vs the spread in these matchups, going 2-1 as well as an over-under record of 1-2.
• Across the Patriots last five road games, the team averaged 13 points per game while allowing 21. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 2-3, while going 1-4 straight-up.

Miami has now won two straight games, including a 34-19 victory over the Raiders in week 11. The Dolphins were favored by 8 points and covered the spread, bringing their ATS record to 4-6. They have covered in three consecutive games. Before this, they defeated the Rams 23-15 in week 10, winning as 2-point underdogs.

Heading into week 12, the Dolphins have a 4-6 record and rank 18th in our NFL power rankings. They have a 14.5% chance of making the playoffs, but their chances of winning the AFC East are 0.0%. In the division, Miami is 1-2, and they are 3-4 in conference games.

• Through their last three regular season contests, Miami has a record of 1-2. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 1-2 to go along with an over-under mark of 3-0.
• Across their last five home contests, Miami has a 3-2 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 2-3, while averaging 15 points per game.

• Free Spread Prediction Dolphins -7 (Bet Now)

Patriots vs. Dolphins Pick: Dolphins -7

Our pick vs. the spread in this week 12 matchup between the Patriots and Dolphins is to take the Dolphins to cover as home favorites. The point spread line is currently at -7 in favor of the Dolphins, and we have them winning by a score of 25-17.

For an over/under pick, with the line sitting at 46 points, we are leaning towards taking the under, with our projections pointing to a combined score of 42 points.