Lutz’s Locks For Week 4 Of The NFL

Patriots vs 49ers Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 4

ByUSA Wager

The 49ers are favored by -10 as they host the Patriots at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA. This non-conference matchup is set for 4:05 ET on Sunday, September 29th, with FOX handling the television coverage. The 49ers are -526 on the money line, while the Patriots’ money line odds are +389. The over/under line is 39.5 points.

Prediction at a Glance for 49ers vs Patriots

  • We have the 49ers winning this one by a score of 25 to 12
  • Not only do we have the 49ers winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -10
  • We see this game finishing below the line of 39.5 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Patriots +10 | 49ers -10
  • Total: 39.5
  • MoneyLine: Patriots +389 | 49ers -526

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Patriots vs. 49ers Prediction: MoneyLine

New England’s offense struggled in their 24-3 loss to the Jets, managing just 11 first downs and 61 total yards through the air. They were forced to abandon the run game, with only 15 rushing attempts, although they did average 5.2 yards per attempt. The Patriots couldn’t convert on third down, managing just an 18.2% conversion rate, and Jacoby Brissett was sacked seven times while going 12/18 for 98 yards passing.

Brissett didn’t throw any touchdowns and finished with a passer rating of 80. Antonio Gibson was their top rusher, gaining 29 yards, while Demario Douglas led the team with 69 receiving yards on seven catches.

Despite the 27-24 loss to the Rams, the 49ers’ offense put up 25 first downs and 288 yards through the air. Brock Purdy had a good game at quarterback, completing 73% of his passes for 292 yards and three touchdowns. He also ran for 41 yards. Jauan Jennings was a standout, catching 11 passes for 175 yards and all three of San Francisco’s receiving touchdowns.

On the ground, the 49ers rushed for 137 yards, with Jordan Mason leading the way with 77 yards on 19 attempts. The offense converted 54.5% of their third down attempts and Purdy was sacked once in the game.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction 49ers -526 (Bet Now)

Patriots vs. 49ers Prediction: Total

Despite giving up 133 rushing yards to the Jets, the Patriots’ defense played well against the pass in their most recent game, allowing just 267 yards on 33 attempts. Unfortunately, they still gave up 24 points in a 24-3 loss. The Patriots struggled on third down, allowing the Jets to convert 66.7% of their third down attempts.

New England’s defense managed two sacks and limited the Jets to 2-of-12 on third down, but they also allowed 133 rushing yards and 4.0 yards per attempt. The Patriots also struggled to generate pressure, losing the quarterback hit differential by -11.

In their 27-24 loss to the Rams, the 49ers’ defense allowed 198 passing yards and 98 rushing yards on 26 attempts (3.8 yards per attempt). The 49ers did not allow a single completion in the passing game. They also forced three sacks and held the Rams to a 41.7% conversion rate on third down.

The 49ers’ defense played well in terms of generating pressure, as they had a positive quarterback hit differential and more tackles for loss than the Rams. However, they did give up one passing touchdown in the game.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction UNDER 39.5 (Bet Now)

Patriots vs. 49ers Prediction: Spread

After a 24-3 loss to the Jets, the Patriots are now 1-2 on the season. New England fell behind early, with the Jets leading 7-0 after the 1st quarter. The Patriots managed a field goal in the 2nd quarter but still trailed 14-3 at halftime. Aaron Rodgers and Allen Lazard connected for a 10-yard touchdown, and Breece Hall added a rushing touchdown for the Jets. New England’s defense allowed another touchdown to Garrett Wilson with only 11 seconds left in the 2nd quarter.

The Patriots didn’t score at all in the 2nd half, and the Jets added a field goal in the 4th quarter. New England’s only touchdown came in the 2nd quarter, and they were 18 heading into the 4th quarter.

  • New England has put together a record of 1-2 in their last three games (regular season). Their record vs the spread sits at 1-1-1 in these matchups, while posting a 1-2 over-under mark.
  • Across their last five road contests, New England has been good against the spread posting a mark of 4-1. Their overall mark in these games was 3-2, while averaging 17 points per game.

The 49ers are now 1-2 after losing to the Rams 27-24. San Francisco was on the road for this one and heading into the game, they were actually favored by -6, but with the 3-point loss, they did not cover the spread. The combined 51 points exceeded the O/U line of 44.5 points.

Despite the tough loss, the 49ers got off to a great start, leading 14-0 after the 1st quarter. The Rams got on the board in the 2nd quarter, and at halftime, the 49ers were still up 14-7. Even heading into the 4th quarter, the 49ers were up 24-14, but the Rams outscored them 13-0 in the final period. The 49ers missed a big opportunity with 2:48 left in the 4th when Jake Moody missed a 55-yard field goal with a chance to extend their lead.

  • Through their last three games, the 49ers have a record of 3-0. This includes going 1-2 vs. the spread and posting an over-under mark of 2-1.
  • When looking at their past five home matchups, San Francisco has an ATS record of 2-3 while averaging 27 per game. The team went 2-3 overall in these games.
  • Free Spread Prediction 49ers -10 (Bet Now)

Patriots vs. 49ers Pick: 49ers -10

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the 49ers to cover as home favorites. Despite the point spread being at -10 in favor of the Patriots, we have the 49ers pulling off the upset by a score of 23-12.

As for the over/under, with the line sitting at 39.5 points, we like the under, with a projected combined score of 35 points.

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