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Packers vs Bears Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 11

ByUSA Wager

The Packers are favored on the road in their week 11 matchup against the Bears. The game, which kicks off at 1:00 ET, is being televised on FOX. The Packers’ money line odds are -269, while the Bears are at +219. Green Bay is favored by -6.5 points, and the over/under line is set at 41.5 points.

Prediction at a Glance for Bears vs Packers

  • We have the Bears winning this one by a score of 27 to 20
  • Not only do we have the Bears winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +6.5
  • Look for this game to go over the line of 41.5 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Packers -6.5 | Bears +6.5
  • Total: 41.5
  • MoneyLine: Packers -269 | Bears +219

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Packers vs. Bears Prediction: MoneyLine

Heading into week 11, the Packers are 12th in our offensive power rankings. They are 7th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 25.6, and they rank 3rd in yards per game with 390. Despite being 17th in passing attempts, they are 7th in passing yards per game, averaging 235.2. Green Bay is 5th in rushing attempts and 3rd in rushing yards per game, with 154.8. They are 18th in 3rd-down conversions, with a rate of 37.4%, and 16th in red zone conversion percentage.

In week 9, Jordan Love threw for 273 yards, completing 23 of 39 passes, but didn’t have a touchdown and threw an interception. Josh Jacobs ran for 95 yards on 13 carries, and Jayden Reed led the receivers with 5 catches for 113 yards. The Packers struggled on 3rd down, converting only 3 of 12, and scored on just 1 of 4 red zone trips against the Lions.

Heading into week 11, the Bears rank 24th in our offensive power rankings. They are 21st in the NFL in points per game (19.4) and 30th in passing yards per game (169.6), despite ranking 13th in pass attempts. Chicago is also 30th in the league in yards per game (277.7) and 29th in 3rd-down conversion rate (28.7%). However, they have been efficient in the red zone, ranking 3rd in the NFL in red zone conversion percentage.

Caleb Williams has struggled recently, posting a passer rating of 63 in week 10, with 120 yards on 16/30 passing and no touchdowns. He was sacked 9 times in the loss to New England. Chicago’s offense failed to score after the 2nd quarter, with Keenan Allen leading the team with 44 receiving yards on 5 catches, and D’Andre Swift rushing for 59 yards on 16 carries.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Bears +219 (Bet Now)

Packers vs. Bears Prediction: Total

Despite holding the Lions to 137 passing yards, the Packers gave up 124 rushing yards on 32 attempts in their 24-14 loss. The Packers’ defense allowed Detroit to control the clock and keep their offense off the field, as they converted 33.3% of their third down attempts. Green Bay also allowed one passing touchdown, as the Lions completed 81.8% of their passes.

Green Bay’s defense managed just one sack in the game, but they did win the quarterback hit and tackles for loss differentials. The Packers’ offense struggled to sustain drives, leaving the defense on the field for extended periods of time.

In the Bears’ 19-3 loss to the Patriots, their defense allowed just 184 passing yards on 15 completions. However, they struggled to defend the run, giving up 144 rushing yards on 35 attempts. Chicago’s offense managed only 3 points, and the defense was on the field for 328 total yards.

Despite their strong pass defense, the Bears allowed one passing touchdown and struggled to generate pressure, finishing with only one sack. New England was 6-of-14 on third down and had success running the ball, with Chicago losing the battle at the line of scrimmage, finishing with a -13 tackles for loss differential.

  • Free Total Prediction OVER 41.5 (Bet Now)

Packers vs. Bears Prediction: Spread

Heading into week 11, the Packers are 5th in our NFL power rankings, despite their 6-3 record putting them 3rd in the NFC North. Our projections give Green Bay a 77.5% chance of making the playoffs, but just a 5.8% chance of winning the division. In their two divisional games, the Packers are 0-2, including a 24-14 loss to the Lions in week 9. This ended their 4-game winning streak, which included a 3-point win over the Jaguars in week 8.

Against the spread, the Packers are 4-5, and they’ve failed to cover in their last three games. They were 3.5-point favorites against the Jaguars, but only won by 3, and they couldn’t cover as 3-point favorites against the Texans in week 7. Green Bay’s O/U record is 4-4-1, with their games averaging 47.1 points per game.

  • The Packers have posted a 2-1 record in their previous three games. However, they have only gone 0-3 vs. the spread over this stretch. Their over-under record in these three games was 1-2.
  • Across their last five road contests, Green Bay has been good against the spread posting a mark of 3-2. Their overall mark in these games was 3-2, while averaging 26 points per game.

After three straight losses, the Bears are now 4-5, including a 19-3 home loss to the Patriots in week 10. Chicago was a 6-point favorite in that game, but they couldn’t get anything going offensively, managing just 3 points. The O/U line was 37.5, and the teams combined for 22 points, marking the Bears’ third straight under.

Chicago currently ranks 23rd in our NFL power rankings and has a 4.3% chance of making the playoffs. They are 5-4 against the spread this season, but they have failed to cover in three straight games. Their O/U record is 3-6.

  • Over their last three games, the Bears have gone 2-1 straight up. This also includes going 2-1 ATS and an over-under mark of 2-1.
  • Through their last five home contests, the Bears offense has averaged 12 points per game while allowing an average of 20. Chicago posted an overall record of 0-5 while going 1-4 ATS.
  • Free Spread Prediction Bears +6.5 (Bet Now)

Packers vs. Bears Pick: Bears Moneyline (+219)

Our point spread pick for this week 11 matchup between the Bears and Packers is to take the Bears to cover as home underdogs. The current line has the Bears at +6.5, and we have them winning by a score of 26-19.

For an over/under pick, we like taking the over, with a predicted combined score of 45 points. The current O/U line is just 41.5 points, making the over a good value pick.

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