Lutz’s Locks For Week 4 Of The NFL

Jaguars vs Texans Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 4

ByUSA Wager

The Jaguars and Texans will face off at NRG Stadium in Houston at 1:00 ET on Sunday, September 29th. The Texans are the heavy favorite with a money line of -313, and they are favored by -7 on the point spread. The over/under line is set at 45.5 points. You can catch this week four AFC South matchup on CBS.

Prediction at a Glance for Texans vs Jaguars

  • We have the Jaguars winning this one by a score of 26 to 18
  • Not only do we have the Jaguars winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +7
  • We see this game finishing below the line of 45.5 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Jaguars +7 | Texans -7
  • Total: 45.5
  • MoneyLine: Jaguars +250 | Texans -313

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Jaguars vs. Texans Prediction: MoneyLine

The Jaguars’ offense struggled in a 47-10 loss to the Bills, managing just a 15.4% conversion rate on third down. They finished with 92 rushing yards on 17 attempts and allowed five sacks. Trevor Lawrence threw for 178 yards (21/38) and was sacked five times, finishing with one touchdown and one interception.

Christian Kirk led Jacksonville with 79 yards receiving, while Travis Etienne Jr. was the top rusher with 68 yards, 22 of which came on one run, and 17 yards receiving. The Jaguars didn’t complete a single pass attempt in the game.

The Texans’ offense struggled in a 34-7 loss to the Vikings, managing just 38 rushing yards on 14 attempts. They also allowed five sacks and turned the ball over twice on interceptions. Despite finishing with 17 first downs, Houston couldn’t sustain drives, going 3-for-7 on fourth down and 3-for-7 in the red zone.

Quarterback C.J. Stroud led the passing attack with 215 yards on 20 completions. He threw one touchdown and ended with a passer rating of 68. Stefon Diggs was the leading receiver, with 94 yards on 10 catches. The Texans didn’t complete a pass attempt in the game.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Jaguars +250 (Bet Now)

Jaguars vs. Texans Prediction: Total

In their most recent game, the Jaguars’ defense struggled to generate pressure, as they didn’t record any sacks and lost the quarterback hit and tackles for loss differentials. The Jaguars gave up 47 points to the Bills and allowed four passing touchdowns. Despite not allowing any completions, Buffalo still managed to throw for 266 yards against them. On third downs, the Jaguars allowed the Bills to convert 54.5% of their chances.

Jacksonville’s run defense allowed 122 yards on 29 attempts in the game, and they gave up a total of 388 yards. The Jaguars are looking to bounce back from this performance and get back on track defensively.

In their most recent game, the Texans’ defense gave up four passing touchdowns and allowed the Vikings to complete 46.2% of their third down attempts. They lost 34-7, with the Texans’ offense managing just one touchdown. Despite this, the Texans’ defense did not allow a single completion in the passing game, giving up 156 yards and four touchdowns through the air.

On the positive side, the Texans’ defense managed four sacks and limited the Vikings to 118 yards on 28 rushing attempts. However, the Texans’ inability to defend the big play resulted in a tough game for the defense.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction UNDER 45.5 (Bet Now)

Jaguars vs. Texans Prediction: Spread

After a 47-10 loss to the Bills, the Jaguars are still looking for their first win of the season, dropping their record to 0-3. Jacksonville was 4-point underdogs heading into the game, and the 37-point defeat was well below the over/under line of 46.5 points. The Jaguars didn’t cover the spread, and the combined 57 points was above the over/under line.

Jacksonville fell behind early, as Buffalo led 13-0 after the 1st quarter. The Jaguars managed only a field goal in the 2nd quarter, and the Bills added three more touchdowns to lead 34-3 at halftime. Jacksonville did find the endzone in the 3rd quarter with a touchdown from Trevor Lawrence to Christian Kirk, and Buffalo added a field goal to make it 37-10 in favor of the Bills heading into the 4th quarter.

  • Jacksonville has put together a record of 0-3 in their last three games (regular season). In these contests, the team went just 1-2 against the spread, while going 1-2 on the over-under.
  • Across their five previous road games, Jacksonville has an ATS mark of 1-4. Their straight up record in these matchups was 0-5 while averaging 17 points per game.

The Texans fell behind early vs. the Vikings, trailing 14-0 after the 1st quarter and 21-0 by halftime. Houston’s only score came in the 3rd quarter when C.J. Stroud connected with Nico Collins for a touchdown, but the Texans still fell 34-7. Houston, now 2-1 on the season, was on the road for this one and favored by -1.5. The 27-point loss vs. the Vikings was well below expectations for Houston.

Looking at the over/under line heading into the game, it was set at 46.5 points. The Texans’ defense struggled to contain the Vikings’ passing game, as Sam Darnold threw multiple touchdowns to both Justin Jefferson and Aaron Jones.

  • Through their last three games, the Texans have a record of 3-0. In addition, their ATS record over this stretch is 2-1 while posting a 1-2 over-under mark.
  • When looking at their past five home matchups, Houston has an ATS record of 2-3 while averaging 17 per game. The team went 3-2 overall in these games.
  • Free Spread Prediction Jaguars +7 (Bet Now)

Jaguars vs. Texans Pick: Jaguars Moneyline (+250)

Our pick vs. the spread in this week four matchup between the Jaguars and Texans is to take the Jaguars to cover as road underdogs. The point spread lines have the Jaguars at +7, and we have them winning by a score of 22-17.

For this week’s over/under pick, we are leaning towards the under, with a projected combined score of 39 points and the O/U line sitting at 45.5 points.

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