Lutz’s Locks For Week 4 Of The NFL

Jaguars vs Dolphins Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 1

ByUSA Wager

The Jaguars and Dolphins will kick off their season at 1:00 ET on Sunday, September 8th at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL. The Dolphins are the favorite with a money line of -170 and are -3 point favorites on the point spread. The over/under line is sitting at 49.5 points. This week one AFC matchup is being televised on CBS.

Prediction at a Glance for Dolphins vs Jaguars

  • We have the Dolphins winning this one by a score of 22 to 21
  • Even though we like the Dolphins to win, our ATS pick is to take the Jaguars at +3
  • We see this game finishing below the line of 49.5 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Jaguars +3 | Dolphins -3
  • Total: 49.5
  • MoneyLine: Jaguars +141 | Dolphins -170

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Jaguars vs. Dolphins Prediction: MoneyLine

Last season, the Jaguars were 20th in offensive power rankings, averaging 22.2 points per game, which was 15th in the league. On the road, they scored 23.8 points per game, ranking 7th, while at home, they dropped to 23rd with 20.8 points per game. They were also 12th in the league in yards per game, averaging 339.5 yards per contest.

Jacksonville relied heavily on the passing game, averaging 36.5 passing attempts per game, which was 7th in the league, compared to 16th in rushing attempts. They finished 9th in passing yards per game, averaging 242.7 yards per contest, but struggled to run the ball, ranking 31st in rushing yards per attempt and 23rd in rushing yards per game.

On the road, the Jaguars averaged 23.8 points per game, ranking 7th, but at home, they dropped to 23rd, with 20.8 points per game. Overall, they finished 15th in the league with 22.2 points per game. Jacksonville’s passing game was more of a strength last season, as they ranked 9th in passing yards per game, averaging 242.7 yards per contest. This was supported by the 7th highest passing attempts per game in the league.

However, the Jaguars struggled to run the ball, finishing 23rd in rushing yards and 31st in rushing yards per attempt. They were 16th in yards per play and 12th in yards per game, averaging 339.5 yards per contest. Converting on 38.2% of their third down attempts, Jacksonville was in the middle of the pack compared to other teams.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Dolphins -170 (Bet Now)

Jaguars vs. Dolphins Prediction: Total

Despite finishing 16th in points allowed at 21.8 per game, the Jaguars’ defense was tough to move the ball against last season, ranking 7th in defensive power rankings. They forced 27 takeaways, the 5th best figure in the league, and held quarterbacks to the 10th most hits. Their 342.8 yards per game ranked 19th in the NFL.

Jacksonville was tough in the red zone, allowing a 55.8% red zone scoring percentage, and they were strong against the run, giving up just 4.2 yards per attempt, which was 7th best in the league.

Jacksonville’s defense was one of the better units at taking the ball away last season, ranking 5th in the league with 27 takeaways. Despite this, they were just 15th in sacks and 10th in quarterback hits. The Jaguars finished the season with the 7th ranked defense based on yards allowed, giving up an average of 342.8 yards per game. They allowed 21.8 points per game, which was 16th in the NFL.

Opponents found success through the air vs. the Jaguars, as they gave up 239.8 passing yards per game (26th). However, against the run, they were tough to handle, giving up just 4.2 yards per attempt, which was 7th best in the league. Jacksonville defended the run well, allowing the 7th fewest rushing touchdowns last season.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction UNDER 49.5 (Bet Now)

Jaguars vs. Dolphins Prediction: Spread

The Jaguars were 9-8 last season, including a 4-2 record against the spread within the AFC South, where they finished 2nd with a 9-8 record. They were better on the road, going 5-3 compared to 4-5 at home. Jacksonville’s playoff push was fueled by their performance in non-conference games, where they went 3-2. They were 7-4 as the favorite and 2-4 as the underdog.

In the 2023 season, the Jaguars were 9th in the AFC, just missing out on the playoffs. They went 3-1 vs. the spread against below .500 teams and 6-7 vs. the spread against above .500 teams. Last year’s games had an average over/under line of 43.1, with a combined average of 44 points per game. The Jaguars finished the season with an 8-9 over/under record.

  • Over their last three regular season games, the Jaguars have gone 1-2 straight up. Against the spread, Jacksonville went 1-2 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 1-2.
  • When looking at their past five road matchups, Jacksonville has an ATS record of 2-3 while averaging 20 per game. The team went 2-3 overall in these games.

The Jaguars went 9-8 last season, placing 2nd in the AFC South with a 4-2 division record. Despite finishing 9th in the AFC, they were above .500 with a 9-8 record. On the road, Jacksonville was impressive, going 5-3, while struggling a bit at home with a 4-5 record. They were also good as the favorite, going 7-4, but struggled as the underdog, going only 2-4.

Against teams with above .500 records, the Jaguars went 6-7, and they were 3-1 against below .500 teams. Their over/under record was 8-9, and their games averaged 44 points per game. Jacksonville finished the season with a 16th ranked average over/under line of 43.1.

  • Miami will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 2-1 over their past three games. Their strong play has also resulted in an ATS mark of 2-1 (last 3). They had an over/under mark of 0-3 in those same games.
  • When looking at their past five home matchups, Miami has an ATS record of 2-3 while averaging 23 per game. The team went 2-3 overall in these games.
  • Free Spread Prediction Jaguars +3 (Bet Now)

Jaguars vs. Dolphins Pick: Jaguars +3

Our pick against the spread is to take Jacksonville to cover as road underdogs in their week one matchup against Miami. The point spread lines have the Jaguars at +3, and we have the Dolphins winning by a score of 22-21.

For an over/under pick, we are leaning towards taking the under, with a projected combined score of 43 points and the O/U line sitting at 49.5 points.

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