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Dolphins vs Bills Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 9

ByUSA Wager

The Dolphins and Bills will kick off at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 3rd at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY. The Bills are the heavy favorite with a money line of -278 and are favored by -6 points on the point spread. This AFC East matchup is being televised on CBS, and the over/under line is set at 50 points, with Miami’s money line at +224.

Prediction at a Glance for Bills vs Dolphins

  • We have the Bills winning this one by a score of 27 to 24
  • Even though we like the Bills to win, our ATS pick is to take the Dolphins at +6
  • Look for this game to go over the line of 50 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Dolphins +6 | Bills -6
  • Total: 50
  • MoneyLine: Dolphins +224 | Bills -278

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction: MoneyLine

Heading into week 9, the Dolphins rank 29th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 13.9 points per game, which is 31st in the NFL. They are 21st in passing yards per game (186.3) on 32.1 attempts per game. Miami has been strong in the red zone, converting 77.8% of their opportunities, which ranks 3rd in the league.

In week 8, Tua Tagovailoa threw for 234 yards and a touchdown, completing 28 of 38 passes. De’Von Achane rushed for 97 yards on 10 carries, while Tyreek Hill had 6 receptions for 72 yards. The Dolphins converted 11 of 15 third downs and scored on 3 of 4 red zone trips.

Buffalo heads into week 9 ranked 4th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 28.8 points per game, which is 5th in the NFL. They are 12th in rushing yards per game (122.2) and passing yards per game (214.2), despite ranking 24th in passing attempts. The Bills have struggled on 3rd down, ranking 20th with a 37% conversion rate, and they are 28th in red zone conversion percentage, despite being 2nd in red zone attempts.

Josh Allen has been playing well, with a passer rating of 102 in week 8, throwing for 283 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Seahawks. James Cook led the team in rushing with 111 yards on 17 carries, while Khalil Shakir had 9 receptions for 107 yards.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Bills -278 (Bet Now)

Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction: Total

In their 28-27 loss to the Cardinals, the Dolphins’ defense gave up 307 passing yards and allowed Arizona to convert on 53.8% of their third down attempts. Miami’s defense struggled to generate pressure, as they didn’t record any sacks and had a tackles for loss differential of -3. The Dolphins’ defense also gave up two passing touchdowns and allowed Arizona to complete 72.2% of their passes.

Miami did a decent job against the run, allowing just 82 yards on 26 attempts (3.2 yards per attempt). However, overall, the Dolphins allowed 389 total yards in the game.

Buffalo’s defense was dominant in their most recent game, holding the Seahawks to just 32 rushing yards on 17 attempts. The Bills’ secondary didn’t allow much in the passing game either, giving up just 201 yards through the air and allowing Seattle to convert only 14.3% of their third down attempts. They also kept Seattle out of the endzone, not allowing a single passing touchdown.

Their defensive front was effective as well, coming away with five more tackles for loss than Seattle and hitting the quarterback five more times than the Seahawks. Overall, the Bills gave up just 233 yards in their 31-10 victory over the Seahawks.

  • Free Total Prediction OVER 50 (Bet Now)

Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction: Spread

Heading into week 9, the Dolphins are looking to snap a two-game losing streak, which includes a narrow 28-27 loss to the Cardinals in week 8. Miami was a 4.5-point favorite at home but couldn’t get the win, dropping their record to 2-5. They now sit 25th in our NFL power rankings and have just a 7.4% chance of making the playoffs.

Against the spread, the Dolphins are 1-6, with their only win coming in week 5, when they covered as 2-point favorites in a 15-10 victory over the Patriots. Their average scoring margin this season is -8.6 points per game, and their O/U record is 2-5, with their games averaging 36.3 points (43.6 O/U line).

  • Over their last three regular season games, the Dolphins have gone 1-2 straight up. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 1-2 to go along with an over-under mark of 1-2.
  • In their last five games away from home, the Dolphins have a straight up record of 1-4 while going 1-4 vs. the spread. The team averaged 10 points per game in this stretch.

With three straight wins, the Bills sit at 6-2 and hold the top spot in the AFC East. After a week 5 loss to the Texans, Buffalo bounced back with wins over the Jets, Titans, and Seahawks. They were favored by 3 points against Seattle in week 8 and easily covered the spread, winning 31-10.

Heading into week 9, our power rankings have the Bills 3rd in the NFL, and they have a 98.6% chance of winning the division. Buffalo is 5-3 against the spread this season, with an average scoring margin of +10.5 points per game.

  • Buffalo will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 3-0 over their past three games. Their strong play has also resulted in an ATS mark of 2-1 (last 3). They had an over/under mark of 3-0 in those same games.
  • In their last five home games, Buffalo has averaged 23 points per game while allowing 19. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-2 while going 3-2 vs. the spread.
  • Free Spread Prediction Dolphins +6 (Bet Now)

Dolphins vs. Bills Pick: Dolphins +6

With the point spread sitting at 6 points in favor of the Dolphins, our pick vs. the spread is to take the Bills to cover as road underdogs. For our point-spread pick, we are going with the Dolphins to cover as road underdogs.

As for the over/under, with the line at 50 points, we like the over, projecting a combined score of 51 points. This should be a high-scoring matchup, making the over a good bet to consider.

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