Lutz’s Locks For Week 4 Of The NFL

Commanders vs Lions Prediction & NFL Odds For The Divisional round

ByUSA Wager

The Lions are heavily favored in their NFC matchup against the Commanders, with a money line of -543 compared to Washington’s +407. The game, set for 8:00 ET on Saturday, January 18th at Ford Field in Detroit, is being televised on FOX. The Lions are -9.5 point favorites, and the over/under line is set at 55 points.

Prediction at a Glance for Lions vs Commanders

  • We have the Lions winning this one by a score of 31 to 25
  • Even though we like the Lions to win, our ATS pick is to take the Commanders at +9.5
  • Look for this game to go over the line of 55 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Commanders +9.5 | Lions -9.5
  • Total: 55
  • MoneyLine: Commanders +407 | Lions -543

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Commanders vs. Lions Prediction: MoneyLine

Washington enters the divisional round ranked 5th in our offensive power rankings. They are 5th in the NFL in points per game (28.2) and 6th in yards per game (368.6). The Commanders have relied heavily on their run game, ranking 4th in rushing attempts and 3rd in rushing yards per game. On 3rd down, they rank 6th in the NFL with a 45.6% conversion rate.

Jayden Daniels threw for 268 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Wild Card round, finishing with a passer rating of 110. He was sacked just once after being sacked 5 times in week 17. Dyami Brown led the team with 5 catches for 89 yards and a touchdown against the Buccaneers.

Detroit’s offense has been explosive this season, leading the NFL with 33.2 points per game and ranking 2nd in yards per game with 409.5. They also rank 2nd in passing yards per game, despite being 16th in pass attempts, and are 5th in rushing yards per game on 31.4 attempts per contest. The Lions have been strong on 3rd down, converting 47.6% of their attempts, and they lead the league in red zone attempts.

Jared Goff threw for 231 yards on 27/33 passing in the Wild Card round, with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 139 yards and 3 touchdowns on 23 carries, while Amon-Ra St. Brown led the team with 77 receiving yards. Detroit scored 14 points in the 4th quarter of their win over the Vikings.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Lions -543 (Bet Now)

Commanders vs. Lions Prediction: Total

In their 23-20 win over the Buccaneers, the Commanders’ defense allowed just 183 passing yards on 15 completions, but two of those completions were for touchdowns. Tampa Bay managed just 284 total yards against Washington, with 101 coming on 25 rushing attempts. The Commanders’ defense allowed an 83.3% completion rate to the Buccaneers and struggled on third downs, allowing a 55.6% conversion rate.

Washington’s defense recorded one sack in the game and gave up a 10.2 yards per attempt in the passing game. The Commanders also struggled to generate tackles for loss, losing that battle to Tampa Bay by a margin of -2.

The Lions’ defense played a big part in their 31-9 win over the Vikings, holding Minnesota to just 142 passing yards and 43.9% completion percentage. Their run defense did struggle a bit, allowing 120 yards on just 19 attempts, but the Vikings were unable to capitalize on this, as they were forced to throw the ball more to try and come back in the game.

Detroit’s defense was excellent on third downs, allowing the Vikings to convert on just 23.1% of their attempts. They also picked up two sacks and held Minnesota to 3.5 yards per pass attempt.

  • Free Total Prediction OVER 55 (Bet Now)

Commanders vs. Lions Prediction: Spread

Washington finished the regular season with a 12-5 record, including a 5-game winning streak from weeks 13-17. This run included a 36-33 win over the Eagles in week 16, where they covered as 4-point underdogs, and a 30-24 win over the Falcons in week 17, covering the 3.5-point spread. In week 18, the Commanders narrowly beat the Cowboys 23-19 but didn’t cover the 7-point spread.

Washington ranks 6th in the NFC and 10th in our power rankings. They have an average scoring margin of +5.4 points and are 11-6-1 against the spread. Their O/U record is 11-7, with their games averaging 51.1 points compared to a 46.2-point line.

  • Through their last three games, the Commanders have a record of 3-0. In these games, they have a 2-1 record vs the spread and an over-under mark of 1-2.
  • Across their five previous road games, Washington has an ATS mark of 2-3. Their straight up record in these matchups was 4-1 while averaging 22 points per game.

With a 15-2 record, the Lions finished the regular season atop our power rankings. They went 6-0 in the NFC North and 11-1 in conference play, securing the top seed in the NFC. Detroit ended the season on a three-game winning streak, which included a 31-9 win over the Vikings in week 18 and a 40-34 road win over the 49ers in week 17. They also beat the Bears 34-17 in week 16, bouncing back from a week 15 loss to the Bills.

Detroit is 12-4-1 against the spread this season, with a +13.1 scoring margin. They have covered in three straight games, including a 22-point win over the Vikings as 3-point favorites in week 18. Their O/U record is 9-7-1, with their games averaging 53.3 points compared to a 50.5-point line.

  • Over their last three games, the Lions have gone 2-1 straight up. But, they did not perform well vs the spread in these games, going 1-1-1. Their over-under record in these matchups was 2-1.
  • Detroit has played well in their previous five home games, going 5-0 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 29 points per game while allowing 18. The team also performed well vs the spread at 4-1.
  • Free Spread Prediction Commanders +9.5 (Bet Now)

Commanders vs. Lions Pick: Commanders +9.5

Our model has the Lions pulling off the upset over the Commanders in this week two postseason matchup. The point spread lines have the Commanders as heavy favorites at +9.5, but we have the Lions winning by a score of 34-28.

For our best bet vs. the spread, we like the Commanders to cover as road underdogs. As for the over/under, with the line sitting at 55 points, we have these teams combining for 62 points, making the over our top pick.

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