Lutz’s Locks For Week 4 Of The NFL

Commanders vs Buccaneers Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 1

ByUSA Wager

The over/under line is set at 43.5 points for the week one matchup between the Commanders and Buccaneers. Washington is the +3.5 point underdog on the road, with the Buccaneers favored at -175 on the money line. This NFC matchup is scheduled for 4:25 ET on Sunday, and FOX will broadcast the game from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL.

Prediction at a Glance for Buccaneers vs Commanders

  • We have the Buccaneers winning this one by a score of 21 to 17
  • Not only do we have the Buccaneers winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -3.5
  • We see this game finishing below the line of 43.5 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Commanders +3.5 | Buccaneers -3.5
  • Total: 43.5
  • MoneyLine: Commanders +147 | Buccaneers -175

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Commanders vs. Buccaneers Prediction: MoneyLine

Washington’s offense was forced to throw the ball 37.4 times per game, the 2nd highest figure in the league last season. Despite this, they ranked 23rd in the league in terms of offensive power rating. The Commanders finished the season averaging 19.4 points per game, which placed them 25th in the NFL. On the road, they scored 22.3 points per game, but at home, they struggled, scoring only 16 points per game.

The Commanders finished 26th in rushing yards, averaging 93.6 yards per game on the ground. In the passing game, they ranked 19th in passing yards, averaging 219.1 yards per game. Washington also struggled on third downs, converting only 35.6% of their third down opportunities.

Washington’s offense is coming off a season in which they averaged 19.4 points per game, ranking 25th in the league. They were 23rd in the NFL in terms of offensive power and struggled to run the ball, finishing with just 93.6 rushing yards per game, which was 26th in the league. Despite their struggles running the ball, they were 6th in rushing yards per attempt.

In the passing game, the Commanders led the NFL in passing attempts per game with 37.4, but finished 19th in passing yards, averaging 219.1 yards per game. At home, Washington scored just 16 points per game, ranking 29th in the league, while on the road, they scored 22.3 points per game, which was 12th in the NFL.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Buccaneers -175 (Bet Now)

Commanders vs. Buccaneers Prediction: Total

Washington’s defense really struggled last season, giving up 30.5 points per game, the worst in the NFL. They also allowed the most yards per game, with 388.9, and the most passing yards per game, with 262.2. Their inability to pressure the quarterback was a key issue, as they were near the bottom of the league in both sacks and quarterback hits.

Opposing quarterbacks had a collective passer rating of 104.49 against Washington, which was dead last in the league. Additionally, opponents converted on 41.6% of their third down attempts, ranking Washington 23rd among defensive units.

Washington’s defense really struggled last season, giving up 30.5 points per game, the worst in the league. They were also dead last in our defensive power rankings. Their inability to pressure the quarterback was a big issue, as they were near the bottom of the league in both sacks and quarterback hits.

Opposing offenses consistently took advantage through the air, as Washington allowed a league-worst 262.2 passing yards per game. Quarterbacks had a collective passer rating of 104.49 against Washington, also the worst in the NFL.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction UNDER 43.5 (Bet Now)

Commanders vs. Buccaneers Prediction: Spread

Washington’s only win as a favorite came in one of their three games against below .500 teams, as they went 4-4 in those matchups. The Commanders struggled to a 4-13 record last season, finishing last in the NFC East with an 0-6 division record. They were tough at home, going 0-7 straight-up and 0-4 ATS. On the road, they were 6-3 ATS. Overall, their ATS record was 6-10-1.

Against above .500 teams, Washington went 0-9. They were 3-10 as underdogs and 1-3 as favorites. Their over/under record was 10-7, with their games averaging 49.8 points per game, the 5th highest in the league. The average over/under line in their games was 43.0.

  • Washington has put together a record of 0-3 in their last three games (regular season). In these contests, the team went just 1-2 against the spread, while going 2-1 on the over-under.
  • When looking at their past five road matchups, Washington has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 20 per game. The team went 1-4 overall in these games.

Washington’s struggles at home were evident last season, as they went 0-7 straight-up and 0-7-1 against the spread. Overall, the Commanders managed just four wins, going 4-13, and all four of their wins came against below .500 teams. They were winless within their division, going 0-6 in the NFC East, and had a 3-10 record as underdogs. On the road, they were 6-3 ATS.

Against teams with winning records, Washington was winless, going 0-9. Their ATS record was 6-10-1 vs. the spread, and they were 2-6-1 ATS against above .500 teams. Their over/under record was 10-7, with their games averaging 49.8 points per game. The Commanders’ home games had an average over/under line of 43, and they were 0-4 ATS as the favorite.

  • Tampa Bay will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 2-1 over their past three games. Their strong play has also resulted in an ATS mark of 2-1 (last 3). They had an over/under mark of 0-3 in those same games.
  • In their last five home games, Tampa Bay has averaged 23 points per game while allowing 20. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-2 while going 3-2 vs. the spread.
  • Free Spread Prediction Buccaneers -3.5 (Bet Now)

Commanders vs. Buccaneers Pick: Buccaneers -3.5

Our model has this week one matchup between the Buccaneers and Commanders finishing with a score of 24-16 in favor of Tampa Bay. Despite this, Washington is actually the favorite at -3.5. With this in mind, we are going with the Buccaneers to not only cover the spread but to win straight-up.

As for an over/under pick, with the line sitting at 43.5 points, we like the under, projecting a combined score of 40 points.

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