Lutz’s Locks For Week 4 Of The NFL

Commanders vs Buccaneers Prediction & NFL Odds For The Wild Card round

ByUSA Wager

The Buccaneers are favored at -182 on the money line as they host the Commanders at 8:00 ET on Sunday, January 12th. This wild card round NFC matchup is being televised on NBC. The Commanders are +3 on the point spread, and the over/under line is at 50.5 points.

Prediction at a Glance for Buccaneers vs Commanders

  • We have the Commanders winning this one by a score of 25 to 22
  • Not only do we have the Commanders winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +3
  • We see this game finishing below the line of 50.5 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Commanders +3 | Buccaneers -3
  • Total: 50.5
  • MoneyLine: Commanders +153 | Buccaneers -182

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Commanders vs. Buccaneers Prediction: MoneyLine

Washington’s offense ranks 5th in our power rankings and averages 28.5 points per game, which is also 5th in the NFL. They are 7th in total yards per game with 369.6, and they rely heavily on the run game, ranking 5th in rushing attempts and 3rd in rushing yards per game with 154.1. On 3rd down, they convert 45.6% of the time, which ranks 6th in the league, and they are 2nd in red zone attempts, although they rank 28th in red zone conversion percentage.

Jayden Daniels had a strong performance in week 3, going 21 of 23 for 254 yards and 2 touchdowns, posting a passer rating of 141. Terry McLaurin led the team with 100 receiving yards on 4 catches, while Daniels also added 39 rushing yards on 12 carries. Washington scored 14 points in the 2nd quarter and 10 in the 4th in their 38-33 win over the Bengals.

After a stellar 4-touchdown performance in week 1, Baker Mayfield threw for 185 yards (12/19) and a touchdown in week 2, followed by 163 yards (25/33) in week 3, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. He has been under heavy pressure, taking 7 sacks in his last game. Chris Godwin has led the team in receiving in all three games, with 53 yards (6 catches) in week 3, 117 yards (7 catches) in week 2, and 83 yards (8 catches) in week 1.

The Buccaneers rank 7th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 29.5 points per game (4th in the NFL) and 399.6 yards per game (3rd). They also lead the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage (50.9%) and 1st-quarter scoring, averaging 6.9 points.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Commanders +153 (Bet Now)

Commanders vs. Buccaneers Prediction: Total

In their 23-19 win over the Cowboys, the Washington Commanders’ defense gave up 378 yards, including 150 rushing yards on 39 attempts. Despite allowing some yardage, they limited Dallas to 41.2% on third down and did not give up any passing touchdowns. Washington allowed 228 passing yards on 20 completions (58.8%).

The Commanders recorded two sacks in the game but lost the quarterback hit battle with a differential of -6. Additionally, they had two more tackles for loss than the Cowboys.

In their 27-19 win over the Saints, the Buccaneers’ defense allowed just 64 rushing yards on 19 attempts. They also limited New Orleans to a 23.1% conversion rate on third down and held them to 292 total yards. Tampa Bay gave up one passing touchdown and allowed the Saints to complete 61.9% of their passes.

The Buccaneers’ defense recorded two sacks in the game and came out ahead in both the quarterback hit and tackles for loss differentials. This helped them keep the Saints out of the endzone for most of the game and secure the win.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction UNDER 50.5 (Bet Now)

Commanders vs. Buccaneers Prediction: Spread

Washington finished the regular season with a 12-5 record and a five-game winning streak, which included a 36-33 victory over the Eagles in week 16 and a 30-24 win over the Falcons in week 17. However, they couldn’t keep it going in week 18, losing 37-20 to the Buccaneers. The Commanders were 4-point underdogs in that game, and the combined score of 57 points was over the 42.5-point line.

Washington ranks 6th in the NFC and 11th in our power rankings. They have an average scoring margin of +5.5 points per game and are 10-6-1 against the spread. Their O/U record is 11-6, with their games averaging 51.5 points compared to a 45.9-point line.

  • Over their last three games, the Commanders have gone 3-0 straight up. Their strong play has also resulted in an ATS mark of 2-1 (last 3). They had an over/under mark of 2-1 in those same games.
  • Through their last five road contests, the Commanders offense has averaged 22 points per game while allowing an average of 23. Washington posted an overall record of 3-2 while going 1-3-1 ATS.

The Buccaneers ended the regular season with a 10-7 record, putting them first in the NFC South and third in the conference standings. After a week 16 loss to the Cowboys, Tampa Bay bounced back with two straight wins, including a 27-19 victory over the Saints in week 18. They didn’t cover the 15-point spread in that game but easily covered the 10-point line in their 48-14 win over the Panthers in week 17.

Heading into the playoffs, the Bucs rank 7th in our power rankings and have an average scoring margin of +6.9 points per game. They are 10-7 against the spread this season and have an O/U record of 12-5, with the over hitting in four straight games.

  • The Buccaneers have posted a 3-0 record in their previous three games. In terms of betting, the team went 2-1 ATS in these matchups. Their over/under record in these matchups is 2-1.
  • When looking at their past five home matchups, Tampa Bay has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 28 per game. The team went 3-2 overall in these games.
  • Free Spread Prediction Commanders +3 (Bet Now)

Commanders vs. Buccaneers Pick: Commanders Moneyline (+153)

Our prediction for this week one playoff matchup between Washington and Tampa Bay is to take Washington to cover the spread. Even though they are the underdogs, sitting at +3 on the road, we have them winning by a score of 28-21. For this one, we are going with Washington to cover as our best bet.

As for the over/under, with the line sitting at 50.5 points, we have a prediction of 49 combined points, making the under a good pick for this matchup.

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