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Chargers vs Patriots Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 17

ByUSA Wager

The Chargers are favored on the road as they take on the Patriots at 1:00 ET on Saturday, December 28th at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots are +180 on the money line, and the Chargers are -214. The Chargers are -4 point favorites, and the over/under line is at 42.5 points. This week 17 AFC matchup is being televised on NFLN.

Prediction at a Glance for Patriots vs Chargers

  • We have the Chargers winning this one by a score of 26 to 17
  • Not only do we have the Chargers winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -4
  • Look for this game to go over the line of 42.5 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Chargers -4 | Patriots +4
  • Total: 42.5
  • MoneyLine: Chargers -214 | Patriots +180

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Chargers vs. Patriots Prediction: MoneyLine

Justin Herbert threw for 284 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 16, completing 23 of 31 passes and posting a passer rating of 110. Ladd McConkey led the team with 6 receptions for 87 yards, while Gus Edwards rushed for 68 yards and 2 touchdowns on 14 carries. The Chargers scored 15 points in the 4th quarter and converted 50% of their 3rd downs (6/12) and 3/4 red zone attempts.

Heading into week 17, the Chargers rank 13th in our offensive power rankings. They are 18th in the NFL in points per game (21.9) and 24th in passing yards per game (200.8). On the ground, they average 106.5 rushing yards per game, ranking 23rd in the league.

Heading into week 17, the Patriots rank 28th in our offensive power rankings. They are 29th in the NFL in both points per game (17.3) and yards per game (298.2). Despite being 16th in passing attempts, they are last in passing yards per game, with 178.5. On the ground, they rank 14th in rushing yards per game, averaging 119.7 on 26.4 attempts per game.

Drake Maye threw for 261 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 16, going 22/36 against the Bills. Kayshon Boutte led the team with 5 catches for 95 yards, while Rhamondre Stevenson had 60 rushing yards on 12 carries. The Patriots converted 7 of 12 third downs and scored on 2 of 3 red zone trips.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Chargers -214 (Bet Now)

Chargers vs. Patriots Prediction: Total

In the Chargers’ 34-27 win over the Broncos, their defense allowed 72.5% completions and 245 passing yards. The Chargers gave up two passing touchdowns and allowed Denver to convert on 38.5% of their third down attempts. The Chargers’ defense recorded two sacks and limited the Broncos to 110 rushing yards on 21 attempts.

In the Patriots’ 24-21 loss to the Bills, New England’s defense gave up 172 rushing yards on just 28 attempts, including a concerning 6.1 yards per attempt. Despite this, they held the Bills to 152 passing yards on 16 completions. Buffalo finished with 324 total yards, and New England’s defense held them to a 36.4% third-down conversion rate.

New England’s defense also picked off one pass and limited Buffalo to one passing touchdown. They managed just one sack in the game and lost the quarterback hit differential by -2.

  • Free Total Prediction OVER 42.5 (Bet Now)

Chargers vs. Patriots Prediction: Spread

After two straight losses, the Chargers got back in the win column in week 16, defeating the Broncos 34-27. This improved their record to 9-6, putting them 2nd in the AFC West. They have a +3.6 scoring margin and are 10-4-1 against the spread, including a 9-2 mark as favorites.

Heading into week 17, the Chargers have a 93.5% chance of making the playoffs, according to our projections. They rank 16th in our NFL power rankings. Their O/U record is 6-9, with the over hitting in two straight games.

  • Los Angeles has put together a record of 1-2 in their last three games (regular season). Across this span, their ATS record sits at 2-1 to go along with an over-under mark of 2-1.
  • Across their last five road contests, Los Angeles has been good against the spread posting a mark of 4-1. Their overall mark in these games was 3-2, while averaging 19 points per game.

Heading into week 17, the Patriots have dropped five straight games, leaving them with a 3-12 record. New England ranks 27th in our NFL power rankings and has a -6.8 scoring margin this season. Against the spread, they are 6-8-1 and have been the underdog in all of their games. Their O/U record is 9-6, with their games averaging 41.3 points.

After a week 10 win over the Bears, the Patriots have lost three in a row, including a 24-21 loss to the Bills in week 16. New England was a 14-point underdog in that game and managed to cover the spread. The combined scoring of 45 points fell short of the 48-point line.

  • Across New England’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. This also includes going 2-1 ATS, and posting an over-under record of 3-0.
  • In their last five home games, New England has averaged 17 points per game while allowing 22. The team’s record in this stretch was 1-4 while going 3-2.
  • Free Spread Prediction Chargers -4 (Bet Now)

Chargers vs. Patriots Pick: Chargers -4

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Chargers to cover as 4-point favorites in their matchup against the Patriots. We have the Chargers winning by a score of 28-21, making them a great pick to cover the spread.

For the over/under, we are leaning towards taking the over, with a projected combined score of 49 points. The current line is 42.5 points, making the over a good value pick in this week 17 matchup.

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