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Bills vs Patriots Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 18

ByUSA Wager

The Patriots are +123 on the money line as they host the Bills at 1:00 ET on Sunday, January 5th at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. Buffalo is favored at -2.5 on the road, with the over/under line set at 38 points. This week 18 AFC East matchup is being televised on CBS, and the Bills are the -146 favorite on the money line.

Prediction at a Glance for Patriots vs Bills

  • We have the Patriots winning this one by a score of 22 to 16
  • Not only do we have the Patriots winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +2.5
  • Look for this game to go over the line of 38 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Bills -2.5 | Patriots +2.5
  • Total: 38
  • MoneyLine: Bills -146 | Patriots +123

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Bills vs. Patriots Prediction: MoneyLine

Heading into week 18, the Bills are 3rd in our offensive power rankings, averaging 31.8 points per game, which ranks 2nd in the NFL. They are 9th in passing yards per game (234.1) and 25th in passing attempts. On the ground, Buffalo is 8th in rushing attempts and 9th in rushing yards per game (131.2). The Bills are 6th in the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage but have struggled in the red zone, ranking 31st in conversion percentage despite being 4th in red zone attempts.

Josh Allen threw for 182 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 17, posting a passer rating of 104 in the win over the Jets. James Cook led the team in rushing with 53 yards on 15 carries, while Tyrell Shavers had a 69-yard reception. Cook had 100 rushing yards in week 16 and 105 yards in week 15 against the Lions.

Heading into week 18, the Patriots rank 28th in our offensive power rankings. They are 27th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 16.6, and 30th in yards per game with 290.9. New England ranks 22nd in passing attempts and is last in passing yards per game, averaging 172.6. On the ground, they are 18th in rushing attempts and 13th in rushing yards per game, with 118.2.

Drake Maye threw for 117 yards and a touchdown in week 17, completing 12 of 22 passes and posting a passer rating of 84. He was sacked 4 times in the loss to the Chargers. DeMario Douglas led the team with 46 receiving yards, and Antonio Gibson had 63 rushing yards on 12 carries.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Patriots +123 (Bet Now)

Bills vs. Patriots Prediction: Total

In their 40-14 win over the Jets, the Bills’ defense allowed 169 passing yards on 23 completions. The Jets finished with 281 total yards, with Buffalo giving up 112 rushing yards on just 21 attempts. Despite the two passing touchdowns allowed, the Bills’ defense came away with two interceptions and four sacks, while also hitting the quarterback four more times than the Jets.

Buffalo’s defense held the Jets to a 71.9% completion rate and forced them into a 44.4% third-down conversion rate. The Bills also limited the Jets to 5.3 yards per attempt in both the rushing and passing game.

In their 40-7 loss to the Chargers, the Patriots’ defense struggled to generate any pressure, failing to record a sack and losing the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials. The Patriots allowed 147 rushing yards on 37 attempts and gave up 281 yards through the air on 26 completions. The Chargers finished with 428 total yards against New England.

The Patriots’ defense also allowed three passing touchdowns and let the Chargers convert on 58.8% of their third down attempts. New England will need to improve their pass rush and overall defensive efficiency to prevent similar results in future games.

  • Free Total Prediction OVER 38 (Bet Now)

Bills vs. Patriots Prediction: Spread

With a 13-3 record, the Bills head into week 18 on a three-game winning streak, including a 40-14 win over the Jets in week 17. Buffalo was favored by 10.5 points and covered the spread, bringing their ATS record to 10-6. They are 8-4 as favorites and 2-2 as underdogs. Their average scoring margin this season is +10.2 points per game.

Buffalo is 5-0 in division games and 9-2 in the AFC, giving them a 100% chance of winning the AFC East. They rank 4th in our NFL power rankings. Their O/U record is 10-6, with their games averaging 53.4 points compared to an average line of 46.9.

  • Through their last three games, the Bills have a record of 3-0. This also includes going 2-1 ATS and an over-under mark of 2-1.
  • The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last road games and 4-1 straight-up.

Heading into week 18, the Patriots are on a six-game losing streak, dropping their record to 3-13. New England ranks 27th in our power rankings and has been eliminated from playoff contention. They are 1-4 in division games and 2-9 against AFC opponents, putting them last in the AFC East. The Patriots are 1-6 at home and 2-7 on the road.

New England has an average scoring margin of -8.4 points per game and is 6-9-1 against the spread. They have been underdogs in all of their games this season. Their O/U record is 10-6, with their games averaging 41.7 points compared to a line of 41.3.

  • Through their last three regular season contests, New England has a record of 0-3. The team’s record vs the spread was just 1-2, in addition to an over-under mark of 3-0.
  • In their last five home games, New England has averaged 17 points per game while allowing 22. The team’s record in this stretch was 1-4 while going 3-2.
  • Free Spread Prediction Patriots +2.5 (Bet Now)

Bills vs. Patriots Pick: Patriots Moneyline (+123)

With the point spread sitting at 2.5 in favor of the Bills, we are leaning towards taking the Patriots to cover as home underdogs in this week 18 matchup. Our predicted score is 23-18 in favor of the Patriots, making them our pick to not only cover but pull off the upset.

For an over/under pick, we really like the over with a predicted combined score of 41 points, and with the O/U line at just 38 points, there is a lot of value in taking the over in this one.

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