Bills vs Chiefs Prediction & NFL Odds For The Conference Championship

The Chiefs are favored at -2 on the point spread and -129 on the money line as they host the Bills in the AFC Championship. Kickoff is at 6:30 ET on Sunday, January 26th at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. CBS is handling the television coverage, and the over/under line is at 47.5 points.

Prediction at a Glance for Chiefs vs Bills

• We have the Bills winning this one by a score of 27 to 25
• Not only do we have the Bills winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +2
• Look for this game to go over the line of 47.5 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

• Spread: Bills +2 | Chiefs -2
• Total: 47.5
• MoneyLine: Bills +109 | Chiefs -129

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Bills vs. Chiefs Prediction: MoneyLine

In our offensive power rankings, the Bills are currently 3rd in the NFL, and they are 2nd in points per game, averaging 30.7. They are 10th in the league in total yards per game, with 360.5, and 11th in passing yards, averaging 224.3 per game. Buffalo ranks 27th in passing attempts but 7th in rushing attempts, averaging 136.2 rushing yards per game, which ranks 9th in the NFL. On 3rd down, the Bills are converting 44.1% of the time, which ranks 7th in the league.

Josh Allen threw for 127 yards in the divisional round, completing 16 of 22 passes without a touchdown or interception. James Cook led the team in rushing with 67 yards on 17 carries, and Khalil Shakir had 6 receptions for 67 yards. Buffalo scored 14 points in the 2nd quarter against the Ravens but were held scoreless in the 3rd quarter. In the Wild Card round, Allen threw for 272 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Broncos.

Patrick Mahomes bounced back in the divisional round, throwing for 177 yards and a touchdown on 16/25 passing after his 320-yard, 3-touchdown performance in week 17. He connected with Travis Kelce 7 times for 117 yards and a touchdown against the Texans. Kareem Hunt led the ground game with 44 yards on 8 carries.

Before Mahomes returned in the divisional round, the Chiefs were shut out in week 18, managing just 71 passing yards and 27 rushing yards as Carson Wentz started at QB. Kansas City ranks 14th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 22.7 points per game, and they are 16th in passing yards per game with 219.

• Free MoneyLine Prediction Bills +109 (Bet Now)

Bills vs. Chiefs Prediction: Total

In their 27-25 win over the Ravens, the Bills’ defense allowed 176 rushing yards on 30 attempts. Despite giving up 416 total yards, Buffalo managed to come out on top. The Bills’ secondary struggled, allowing Baltimore to average 9.6 yards per attempt in the passing game. They gave up 240 yards through the air on just 18 completions. On third downs, the Ravens converted 70% of their chances.

Buffalo’s defense did come up with one interception and managed two sacks in the game. They also forced the Ravens to complete 72% of their passes.

The Chiefs’ defense was dominant in their 23-14 win over the Texans, recording a remarkable eight sacks. Despite giving up 149 rushing yards on 29 attempts, the Chiefs held the Texans to 14 points and just 187 passing yards. Kansas City’s eight sacks contributed to a high third-down conversion rate of 58.8% for the Texans.

Additionally, the Chiefs did not allow a passing touchdown in the game. Even though they gave up 336 total yards, their ability to pressure the quarterback and disrupt the passing game was key to their success.

• Free Total Prediction OVER 47.5 (Bet Now)

Bills vs. Chiefs Prediction: Spread

After a 28-10 win over the Jaguars in week 3, the Bills are now 13-4 and sit 2nd in the AFC. They went 5-1 in the division and 11-3 in conference play, which was good enough to win the AFC East. Buffalo bounced back from two straight losses by beating Jacksonville, including a 25-point loss to the Ravens in week 4. They also lost to the Texans in week 5 but picked up a 3-point win over the Jets in week 6.

Heading into week 3, the Bills were 3rd in our power rankings. They have an average scoring margin of +9.6 points per game and are 12-7 against the spread. Their O/U record is also 12-7, with the over hitting in their last two games.

• Buffalo has put together a record of 2-1 over their past three games. In addition, their ATS record over this stretch is 2-1 while posting a 2-1 over-under mark.
• Across their last five road contests, Buffalo has been good against the spread posting a mark of 3-2. Their overall mark in these games was 3-2, while averaging 33 points per game.

The Chiefs head into the conference championship with a 15-2 record, putting them first in the AFC. They went 5-1 in division matchups and 11-2 in conference play. Kansas City is undefeated at home (9-0) and 7-2 on the road. In our power rankings, they were 6th heading into week 3.

Against the spread, the Chiefs are 7-10-1, with an average scoring margin of +3.8 points per game. Their O/U record is 7-11, with the under hitting in their last two games. Their games have averaged 41.6 points, compared to an average line of 43.9.

• The Chiefs have posted a 3-0 record in their previous three games. Against the spread, they have gone 1-2 and logged an over-under record of 1-2 in these games.
• Although Kansas City has a straight up record of 3-2 in their last five home games, they have not held up as well vs. the spread going 2-3. The team averaged 20 points per game in these games.

• Free Spread Prediction Bills +2 (Bet Now)

Bills vs. Chiefs Pick: Bills Moneyline (+109)

Our prediction for this week three post-season matchup between the Bills and Chiefs is to take the Bills to not only cover the spread but to win the game. The point spread lines have the Bills at +2, and with our projected final score being 27-25 in favor of Buffalo, there is some good value in picking them to pull off the upset.

For the over/under line, we are leaning towards taking the over, with a projected combined score of 52 points. The current O/U line is 47.5 points, making the over a good option for this matchup.