Taphorn’s Twelve Pack: College Football Week 11

Here’s your weekly twelve pack of College Football Week 11 betting advice, drink at your own risk. Crack open six bets that I like and six bets that I don’t and pray for a great weekend without a hangover.

*Week 11 Disclaimer* If you’ve followed the Twelve Pack the past few weeks it may be time for a detox. We’ve been on a binge of bad keg beer and bottom shelf liquor that has tanked the betting record on the year. Let’s consider this week the water we’re mixing in and maybe a sauna session to sweat out the toxic bets that have come from these write ups.

Week 10 Record: 2-4. -5 units; Year to Date Record: 29-34. -11 units; Degenerate Little Birdie Record: 5-5

Six Bets I Like

1. Michigan Wolverines EVEN at Penn State Nittany Lions. Michigan is hanging around in the CFP rankings, and needs to get by the Nittany Lions to make sure their shot at Ohio State this year stands for something. Jim Harbaugh and company get it done on the road. Bet amount: 1 unit.

2. Mississippi State Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers -5.5. Bo Nix will be glad he’s not seeing the Aggies defense after last week. College Station was not kind to the junior quarterback, but he gets to come home against Mississippi State with their SEC West hopes just barely alive with a few weeks to go. Bet amount: 1 unit.

3. Cincinnati Bearcats -23.5 at USF Bulls. I’ll just keep trying to drink from this well (maybe this is how we’ve ended up in the gutter over the past few weeks). Cincy all week complained about their ranking and then needed a goal line stand to hold off 3-5 Tulsa with College Game Day in their backyard. If they want a shot at being a CFP team they better put the foot on the gas against 2-7 USF. Bet amount: 2 units.

4. New Mexico State Aggies +51.5 at Alabama Crimson Tide. It’s just too many points right? I know the Aggies have one win and Alabama is ranked number 2, but it’s more than seven touchdowns! I’ll begrudgingly take the shot from the water bottle full of tequila your buddy found behind his dresser when the Tide win this one 52-0. Bet amount: ½ unit.

5. Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears +5.5. The Sooners have skated by all season, but it’s time to put up or shut up. The rest of the Oklahoma schedule sets up for a dog fight with Baylor, Iowa State and the Bedlam rivalry against Oklahoma State. If you struggle with Kansas, I’m skeptical of your ability to play with a well-coached team like Baylor. Bet amount: ½ unit.

6. Miami (FL) Hurricanes –2.5 at Florida State Seminoles. Both teams have played better football recently but are nowhere near relevant nationally right now. Miami should have the edge as Tyler Van Dyke has injected life into the Hurricanes during this three-game winning streak with his 10 touchdowns to only one interception. Bet amount: 2 units.

*Degenerate Little Birdie’s Bonus Bet: Utah Utes -24.5 at Arizona Wildcats. The Utes are on FIRE lately. After dropping two early non-conference games they have rallied and are in the driver’s seat in the Pac-12 South with a date against Oregon looming next weekend can they steam roll ‘Zona before they get there?

6 Bets to Avoid

1. North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh Panthers -6.5. As disappointing as the Tar Heels have been in 2021, they still have the talent to upset teams as Wake Forest found out a week ago. Kenny Pickett is still looking to make noise in the Heisman race and help his team win the ACC Coastal.

2. NC State Wolfpack at Wake Forest Demon Deacons -2.5. This game could decide the ACC Atlantic. Wake’s loss against the Tar Heels was considered a non-conference matchup due to scheduling, so the Demon Deacons are still undefeated in ACC play. An NC State win puts the Wolfpack in first place in the division.

3. Oregon Ducks -13.5 at Washington State Cougars. A win for the Ducks clinches the Pac-12 North and guarantees them a spot in the conference championship game. Oregon’s rushing attack despite the loss of CJ Verdell has been lethal and the Ducks should get this one done, but two touchdowns is a lot to hitch my wagon to.

4. Purdue Boilermakers at Ohio State Buckeyes -20.5. The giant killing Boilermakers get another top five victim. If this we’re in West Lafayette I’d say let’s get after it and take the underdogs, but in Columbus the Buckeyes should have enough juice. NFL scouts will be drooling over the wide receiver talent in this game.

5. Georgia Bulldogs -20.5 at Tennessee Volunteers. I’m not saying it’s a trap game, but this is probably the best offense Georgia has had to face thus far. Josh Heupel has done a great job with the Volunteers and Hendon Hooker has been a playmaker for Big Orange, but Georgia is on another level right now. This game feels ripe for a back door cover.

6. Arkansas Razorbacks at LSU Tigers +2.5. Did the Tigers leave it all on the field in Tuscaloosa? They gave Alabama all they wanted and more but finding that same level of enthusiasm may prove to be tough for a team whose coach already has boxes packed in his office.