Taphorn’s Twelve Pack: NCAAF Week 4 Bets
This write-up will feature twelve weekly betting lines (The Twelve Pack). Six bets I like will be broken up into half units, full units, and double units. The additional six lines will be lines to stay away from. Each week I’ll also feature a special bonus bet from the little degenerate birdie that whispers ideas in my ear.
- Week 3 Record: 1-5. -6 units.
- Year to Date Record: 10-11. -3 units.
- Degenerate Little Birdie Record: 2-1
6 NCAAF Week 4 Bets I Like:
1. Missouri Tigers -2.5 at Boston College Golden Eagles
After last week’s performance, the twelve-pack has me feeling hungover this week. Let’s start it off with the Missouri Tigers covering on the road against a Boston College team without their starting quarterback. Boston College has a Sagarin strength of schedule of 222 tied to their 3-0 start which is why this line is likely only 2.5-points. Bet amount: 2 units.
2. Texas Tech Red Raiders at Texas Longhorns -7.5
The Longhorns were made into a laughingstock at Arkansas but bounced back with a big blowout win against Rice. Tech came back in their Week 1 win against Houston but overall, they haven’t had to show much yet. Sark gets the Longhorns back on track to start the conference season. Bet amount: ½ unit.
3. Rutgers Scarlet Knights +20.5 at Michigan Wolverines
Michigan has been as impressive as any season under Jim Harbaugh to start 2021. Rutgers gave Michigan a run for their money a year ago and Greg Schiano should keep it within three touchdowns this year. Bet amount: ½ unit.
4. Kentucky Wildcats -4.5 at South Carolina Gamecocks
Kentucky is 1-0 against the SEC to start the year with a big win over Missouri and gets a weak Gamecocks squad in Columbia. South Carolina had a tough draw against Georgia last week. Despite a close one with Chattanooga in Week 3, the Wildcats should run the ball well and limit SC. Bet amount: 1 unit.
5. Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State Spartans -4.5
Sparty has already eclipsed their win total from a season ago and just knocked off Miami (FL) on the road. Mel Tucker has Michigan State playing hard behind big performances from running back Kenny Walker. Nebraska has improved since a brutal loss in Week 0 to Illinois, but not enough to keep up with Michigan State. Bet amount: 2 units.
6. Georgia Bulldogs at Vanderbilt Commodores under 52.5
Vanderbilt should put up at least some resistance against UGA’s offense, but the flip side of the ball could be ugly. The Bulldogs defense continues to impress, and the Commodores offense isn’t likely to find much success at home. Bet amount: 1 unit.
*Degenerate Little Birdie’s Bonus Bet: Arkansas Razorbacks +5.5 vs Texas A&M Aggies
The Hogs are playing well and surpassing expectations after starting the season off with the toughest schedule in college football. Zach Calzada looked better against New Mexico, but this game is more likely to resemble the Colorado game that he finished.
6 NCAAF Week 4 Bets to Avoid:
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish +5.5 vs Wisconsin Badgers
Everything about me wants to take the Badgers at Soldier Field, but Jack Coan has an edge to him. Can he leverage that to beat his former team and maybe save Irish fans from another cardiac event this early in the season?
2. Washington State Cougars at Utah Utes -13.5
The Utes have flat out struggled to start the year. Back-to-back losses to BYU and San Diego State have the Utes sitting below .500 three games into the season. The Cougars lost to a coach-less, quarterback-less USC team, so it may be what the Utes need to bounce back.
3. Southern Mississippi Eagles at Alabama Crimson Tide -44.5
Like the Mercer game, Alabama tends to let up a few points at the end of games to miss covering large spreads. If anything, take a look at the first half-line.
4. Kansas Jayhawks +16.5 at Duke Blue Devils
Just going to save this one for basketball season and stay away.
5. Tennessee Volunteers at Florida Gators -20.5
The same Bama hangover that kept me away from the Miami (FL) spread in Week 2 is keeping me away from the Gators. It’s always hard to replicate the same energy and enthusiasm after narrowly beating the #1 team. The Gators are three touchdowns better but might be sluggish this week.
6. Akron Zips at Ohio State Buckeyes -49.5
Based on what I’ve seen from the Buckeyes so far this season it would be reckless to take them covering more than seven touchdowns.
