Taphorn’s Twelve Pack: College Football Week 9

It is time for Week 9 of the college football season and we review this week’s matchups and make our picks.

• Week 8 Record: 3-3. +0 units
• Year to Date Record: 25-26. -2 units
• Degenerate Little Birdie Record: 4-4

Six Bets I Like:

1. Kentucky Wildcats -1.5 at Mississippi State Bulldogs. The Wildcats defense should do a decent job of containing Mississippi State. If the Cats can run the ball like they have against every team not named Georgia, they’ll leave Starkville with a win while covering. Bet amount: 2 units.
2. Ole Miss Rebels +2.5 at Auburn Tigers. Staying in the SEC, Lane Kiffin and crew head to Jordan-Hare to take on Auburn. Matt Corral is still square in the Heisman conversation and coming off a big win against LSU. Rebels likely win this one outright. Bet amount: 2 units.
3. Iowa Hawkeyes +3.5 at Wisconsin Badgers. The former #2 team in the country still controls their own destiny to reach the Big Ten Championship. A win in Madison will go a long way in making that a reality. The Hawkeyes offense is anemic, but Graham Mertz loves to turn the ball over and Iowa feasts on turnovers. Bet amount: 1 unit.
4. Florida Gators vs Georgia Bulldogs -14.5. The largest outdoor cocktail party, or at least that’s what we used to call it. Florida got run over, through, around, under and every other way against a terrible LSU run offense two weeks ago. Maybe Anthony Richardson starts and carries the Gators to a competitive cover, but I see Kirby Smart and the Dawgs burying their rivals. Bet amount: ½ unit.
5. UNLV Rebels +20.5 at Nevada Wolfpack. Hard to believe I’m going to take an 0-7 team to cover against a quarterback I think is going to be a high NFL draft pick in the spring, but here we are. UNLV is 0-7 on the year, but 5-2 against the spread. Outside of two games against ranked teams, each of their games has been within one score. Bet amount: ½ unit.
6. Rutgers Scarlett Knights -1.5 at Illinois Fighting Illini. The Illini must be tired after a 9OT game, right? Not really with the new overtime rules, but this has let down written all over it. The bigger issues is former Rutgers quarterback and Illinois starter Art Sitkowski and his broken arm suffered in extra time last week. The Illini upset Penn State, but we’ve seen these let downs before. Bet amount: 1 unit.

*Degenerate Little Birdie’s Bonus Bet: Duke Blue Devils at Wake Forest Demon Deacons -16.5. Wake may have just scored another touchdown on Army while I was writing this for the Birdie. The ACC’s lone remaining change at a playoff berth gets one more cupcake before needing to buckle down and prepare for November.

6 Bets to Avoid:

1. Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio State Buckeyes -18.5. A brutal loss by the Nittany Lions, but the team is better than it showed against Illinois. This is a big line for this rivalry even with how great Ohio State has been playing. Look for this to be closer than oddsmakers expect.
2. Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans +4.5. This game has potential to be the game of the weekend. It feels like Sparty has shown more through this stage of the season, as Michigan has seemed to just steamroll over weaker competition. Cade McNamara will need to show he’s a threat passing if Michigan is going to continue their undefeated season.
3. Florida State Seminoles +9.5 at Clemson Tigers. Little ole Clemson lost again. Dabo’s team is reeling and there’s not much hope of the season getting any better right now. Florida State likely doesn’t have the manpower to get some revenge this season, but at this point who knows.
4. North Carolina Tar Heels at Notre Dame Fighting Irish -3.5. This game had all sorts of potential to start the year. Sam Howell and UNC had high hopes in the ACC and Notre Dame came in highly ranked as well. The Tar Heels forgot you need to play the games to get where you want to go.
5. Fresno State Bulldogs at San Diego State Aztecs -1.5. Adding this game to the list just from an interest perspective. Fresno State has a great offense with Jake Haener at quarterback and San Diego has a phenomenal defense coached by Brady Hoke. Strength on strength in this Mountain West showdown, should be fun to watch.
6. Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma Sooners -19.5. Should just go ahead and take Tech here with how Oklahoma has fared this year. A narrow escape of Kansas should count as a loss on a team’s official record. Texas Tech fired their head coach this week, so a virtual unknown in terms of what they’ll put on the field. For sanity’s sake I’m staying away.

Keep up with your latest NCAA football news coverage and betting pick previews at USA Wager.