Taphorn’s Twelve Pack: College Football Week 8

Here’s your weekly twelve pack of College Football betting advice, drink at your own risk. Crack open six bets that I like and six bets that I don’t and pray for a great weekend without a hangover.

Taphorn’s Twelve Pack: College Football Week 8

Week 7 Record: 2-4. -1 units; Year to Date Record: 22-23. -2 units; Degenerate Little Birdie Record: 4-3

Six Bets I Like:

1. Northwestern Wildcats at Michigan Wolverines -23.5. I really do hate picking against a Pat Fitzgerald team getting this many points, but the Wildcats are struggling this year. The Big Ten’s worst rush defense against its best rushing attack. Michigan has their way with the smart kids from Evanston. Bet amount: 2 units.
2. LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels -9.5. The Tigers somehow beat Florida and fired their coach in the same week. Coach O will stay on through the end of the season, but his fate has been determined. Rumors are circling that Lane Kiffin is at the top of the list to replace him and this could act as a de facto job interview. Bet amount: 1 unit.
3. Tennessee Volunteers at Alabama Crimson Tide -14.5 1st Half. The Tide bounced back after their loss to A&M by shutting down Mike Leach’s offense for a second straight year. Tennessee had a “welcome home party” for Lane Kiffin in Knoxville that ended as all good parties do, with projectiles and six-figure fines. The health of Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker will determine if this game stays close for any portion of time, but if he’s not 100% expect the Tide to pull away early. Bet amount: 2 units.
4. Clemson Tigers +3.5 at Pittsburgh Panthers. Yes, that line is accurate. The Tigers are underdogs in an ACC matchup for the first time since 2014. It’s been a tough season for lil’ ole Clemson, mostly on the offensive side of the ball. Pitt and Kenny Pickett have looked great, but until Clemson is fully knocked off the mountain, I’m not ready to believe it. Bet amount: ½ unit.
5. Nevada Wolfpack at Fresno State Bulldogs over 64.5 total points. This is more of a “speak it into existence” type of bet. In a weak quarterback class these two teams have some of the top unheralded prospects in Carson Strong and Jake Haener. I’m going to hope for a showcase of their arm talent and points galore. Bet amount: ½ unit.
6. BYU Cougars -4.5 at Washington State Cougars. The stands will have more Cougars in them than the downtown bars on parents’ weekend at your local state university, but the drama in this one is already set. Wazzu fired Coach Nick Rolovich for refusing his COVID-19 vaccine. This article doesn’t debate the vaccine this isn’t Facebook, but the rumors of the team sitting out in protest have me questioning the level of play we’ll see on the field. Bet amount: 1 unit.

*Degenerate Little Birdie’s Bonus Bet: Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns at Arkansas State Red Wolves over 70.5 total points. From a bird’s eye view our feathered friend still can’t find any defense being played by the Red Wolves. Barring a blow out these teams should put up lots of points combined.

6 Bets to Avoid:

1. Illinois Fighting Illini at Penn State Nittany Lions -24. If Sean Clifford were healthy this line is a slam dunk, but with his status up in the air I’m holding off.
2. Cincinnati Bearcats -28.5 at Navy Midshipmen. Navy getting the hook here and even with Cincy needing style points I worry about a backdoor cover. Going to stay on the sidelines for this one.
3. Oklahoma State Cowboys +6.5 at Iowa State Cyclones. Not often do you see a top ten team as an almost touchdown underdog against an unranked opponent. This one feels a lot like the Alabama at Texas A&M game where the unranked team is more talented than their record shows.
4. Oregon Ducks +2.5 at UCLA Bruins. The west coast version of the game above. Unranked UCLA is favored against top ten Oregon, and despite the Ducks injuries I’m not sure I’m willing to trust Chip Kelly here.
5. Ohio State Buckeyes -20.5 at Indiana Hoosiers. The Buckeyes have started to turn the corner on the season and look like themselves. Indiana has gone through a murderer’s row of a schedule and it doesn’t get any easier this week, but maybe a late touchdown keeps it respectable.
6. USC Trojans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish -6.5. Boy has this rivalry lost some luster. Notre Dame has stayed relevant over the past decade while the Trojans have fallen hard from grace. Already in the coaching search phase of the season, can USC muster up enough motivation for a cross-country rivalry game?