White Sox vs Padres Prediction & MLB Odds For Saturday, September 21st
The forecast for Saturday’s White Sox vs. Padres interleague matchup calls for clear skies and temperatures in the low 70s. This one is getting started at 8:40 PM ET from PETCO Park in San Diego, and the Padres are the heavy favorite on the money line at -272. The White Sox have a money line payout of +226, and they are 36-118 this season, putting them 5th in the AL Central.
Chris Flexen is starting for the White Sox, and he will be facing off against Martín Pérez for the Padres. NBCS will be televising this one, and the over/under line is currently at 8 runs.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: White Sox 1.5 (+102) | Padres -1.5 (-124)
- Total: 8
- MoneyLine: White Sox +226 | Padres -272
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
White Sox vs. Padres Prediction: Moneyline
San Diego picked up a 3-2 win over the White Sox in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a two-run lead heading into the 9th inning, and the White Sox could only muster two runs in the final frame. Heading into the game, the Padres were favored at -296 on the money line.
Joe Musgrove pitched well for the Padres in this one, going six innings and striking out nine without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Adrian Morejon got the save. Garrett Crochet had a rough outing for the White Sox, taking the loss.
Jake Cronenworth went 3/3 with two runs scored for the Padres, while Xander Bogaerts also had two hits and an RBI. Jackson Merrill drove in two runs while going 1/3.
With a record of 36-118, the White Sox are 5th in the AL Central and trail the Guardians by 53.5 games for the division lead. Chicago has lost three straight games, and they are 3-7 over their last 10. This season, they have really struggled against other AL Central teams, going 8-41.
So far, the White Sox have been much worse on the road, going 16-60 compared to 20-58 at home. They have really struggled as the underdog, going 31-115, but they are 5-3 when favored. Chicago’s overall series record is 7-41-2, and they are currently losing their series vs. the Padres 0-1.
San Diego is 88-66 overall, and they are four games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. The Padres have taken the first game of their series with the White Sox and have an overall series record of 30-15-6 this year. San Diego has won two straight games, and they are 7-3 across their last 10.
At home, the Padres are 43-36 this season and have gone 45-30 on the road. As the favorite, the Padres are 58-42 this year and 30-24 as the underdog. San Diego’s two-game win streak as the favorite is part of their overall two-game home winning streak.
White Sox vs. Padres Prediction: Over/Under
The White Sox are on the road against the Padres today, and the over/under line is set at 8 runs. The combined run average for White Sox games this season is 8.2 runs, and their over/under record is 65-81. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, the White Sox have a record of 13-14-3. Overall, 50% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 runs or higher, while 30.5% have had lines set at 8 runs or lower. The under has hit in their last three games.
For the White Sox to get their offense going, they will need their top two home run hitters, Andrew Vaughn and Andrew Benintendi, to get going. Both players come into the game with 19 homers, but Vaughn is batting .247 for the season, while Benintendi is hitting just .226. Benintendi has been better of late, hitting three homers in his last nine games while batting .265.
Chicago’s offense has been bad in just about every category this season, as they are last in home runs, and have the worst team batting average, on-base percentage, and OPS in the league. Overall, they are averaging just 3.1 runs per game.
San Diego’s games have averaged 8.9 runs per game this season, but the over/under line for today’s game is set at 8. The Padres have played to an over/under record of 80-71 this season, and when the line has been set at 8 runs, they have gone 12-15-1. Over 38.3% of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s, and their games have gone under in their last five contests.
San Diego comes into today’s game as the league’s top hitting team, with a batting average of .265. They are also 8th in the league in scoring, averaging 4.7 runs per game. The Padres have been even better on the road this season, averaging 5.1 runs per game. San Diego has been great at putting the ball in play this season, as they have the fewest strikeouts in the league.
Manny Machado has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 9/25 with three homers in his last six games. This has helped him move into the team lead in home runs, with 29, and he is also 7th in the league in RBIs. Machado is also on a four-game hitting streak. Jackson Merrill is 2nd on the team with 24 homers and is batting .292 for the season.
White Sox vs. Padres Prediction: Spread
Chicago has been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 63-91 overall. They have been especially good on the road, where they are 32-44 ATS. The White Sox have been a good bet as an underdog, going 58-88 ATS. They have covered the run line in their last two road games and have covered the run line in two straight as the underdog.
Chris Flexen will be looking to pitch better on the road as he comes into today’s game with a record of 1-8 and an ERA of 8.16. Overall, he is 2-14 with a 5.08 ERA. Flexen has made 28 starts and nine of them have been quality starts. In his last outing, Flexen didn’t allow a run in five innings of work, finishing with a no-decision. Before that, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight outings. The right-hander has allowed at least one homer in four straight trips to the mound.
San Diego is 31-48 against the run line at home, but 47-28 on the run line on the road. They are 37-17 against the run line as an underdog, but just 41-59 as a favorite. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.6, compared to -3.5 in losses.
Left-hander Martín Pérez gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the White Sox at home. So far this season, he has made 24 starts and has a record of 4-5 with an ERA of 4.36. Looking at his overall numbers, opponents are batting .278 this year, and he has a total of eight quality starts. In his most recent outing, Pérez finished with a no-decision, going five innings and giving up one earned run on two hits. Before that, he had given up at least one homer in three straight outings.
White Sox vs. Padres Pick: Over 8 Runs -116
Our prediction for today’s White Sox and Padres matchup is to take the over, with the line currently sitting at 8 runs. We actually have the Padres winning this one 6-5, giving us some wiggle room if you wanted to take the money line.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Chris Flexen going 3 innings, and he is projected to finish with four strikeouts. As for Martin Perez, we have him going 5 innings and finishing with just three K’s.
If you’re looking for a payout, we would recommend taking the over, as you could still get a decent payout with a Padres win, but the payout is not as good as the money line.
