Twins vs Guardians Prediction & MLB Odds For Wednesday, September 18th
Wednesday’s matchup between the Twins and Guardians has a first pitch set for 6:40 PM ET from Progressive Field in Cleveland. The Guardians are the betting favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -117 compared to the Twins at -101. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs.
Minnesota will be starting Bailey Ober, while the Guardians are sending Tanner Bibee to the mound. The Twins are 3rd in the AL Central with a record of 80-71, while the Guardians are in 1st place at 87-65.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Twins -1.5 (+162) | Guardians 1.5 (-207)
- Total: 7.5
- MoneyLine: Twins -101 | Guardians -117
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Twins vs. Guardians Prediction: Moneyline
It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Twins vs. Guardians series. Minnesota went into the matchup as +118 underdogs and squeaked out a 4-1 win. Both teams scored one run in the first inning, and the Guardians could only muster one more run in the 4th inning. As for the Twins, they scored the game’s go-ahead run in the 5th, and added two insurance runs in the 8th.
Gavin Williams got the start for the Guardians, going five innings and giving up two earned runs on five hits. He finished the game with seven strikeouts but issued two walks. As for the Twins, Zebby Matthews only went 4 2/3 innings but gave up just one earned run on five hits.
Minnesota’s offense was led by Willi Castro and Matt Wallner, as they were the only two Twins hitters to have more than one hit. Castro, Lane Thomas, and Angel Martinez each had one home run for their respective teams.
Minnesota is 80-71 overall and 6.5 games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead. So far, they have gone 29-21 in divisional games. The Twins are on the road today, and they are 38-38 as the visiting team compared to 42-33 at home.
The Twins have been good as the favorite this year, going 63-42, but they are just 17-29 as the underdog. Minnesota is 26-17-4 in series this year, and they are 1-1 in their current series vs. the Guardians. Looking at their recent games, the Twins are 4-6 over their last 10.
Cleveland is hosting the Twins today with an overall record of 87-65, which has them leading the AL Central by five games. So far, they have gone 28-22 against other teams in the AL Central. The Guardians were able to win the first game of this series vs. the Twins but dropped game two.
At home, the Guardians are 46-28 this season, and they have gone 41-37 on the road. As the favorite, Cleveland has gone 61-33 and 26-32 as the underdog. Their overall series record is 26-15-6, and they are 6-4 over their last 10 games.
Twins vs. Guardians Prediction: Over/Under
The Minnesota Twins are on the road today against the Cleveland Guardians with an over/under line of 7.5 runs. The Twins and their opponents have combined to average 9.1 runs per game this season. Minnesota has played to the over in 76 of their 145 games this season, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. When the over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs, the Twins have gone over that total in 19 of 37 games. The over/under line for this game is lower than their season average, and the under has hit in their last two games.
Carlos Santana has been the Twins’ top power threat this season, as he leads the team with 22 home runs and also has a team-high 65 RBIs. He has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 6/17 in his last four games with one homer and two RBIs. Willi Castro has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 6/16 in his last five games with a home run and four RBIs.
As a team, the Twins are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 11th in the league. They are also one of the top home run-hitting teams in the league, coming in 9th in the league. So far, they have been a good home team, averaging 4.9 runs per game.
The Cleveland Guardians have been involved in high-scoring games this season, with their games averaging 8.3 runs per game. The over/under record for the Guardians is 66-75, and the average over/under line for their games is 8 runs. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, the Guardians have gone over the total 17 times and under 21 times. In total, 69.7% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs, and the under has hit in their last six games.
For the season, the Guardians are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. At home, they have been a bit better, averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 8th in the league. As a team, they are batting just .238, but their team on-base percentage of .309 is 12th in the league. One area where the Guardians have excelled this season is avoiding strikeouts, as their 7 strikeouts per game is the 4th fewest in the league.
José Ramírez has been a consistent threat for the Guardians this season, batting .273 with a league-leading 107 RBIs and 35 home runs. He is also on a 10-game hitting streak and has gone 8/23 in his last six games. Josh Naylor is also near the top of the league in RBIs, as he is 6th in the league with 103 RBIs.
Twins vs. Guardians Prediction: Spread
Minnesota has a run line record of 70-81 on the season, with an average run margin of 0.2 runs per game. They are 38-38 vs. the run line on the road, where their average run margin is 0.1 runs per game. As the favorite, the Twins are 46-59 vs. the run line, while they are 24-22 as the underdog.
Right-hander Bailey Ober gets the start for the Twins today as he faces the Guardians on the road. He has made 28 starts this season and has a record of 12-7 with a 3.90 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting .202 off Ober this season, and he has a WHIP of .99. In his last outing, Ober took the loss, giving up five earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had turned in three straight solid outings, giving up one earned run in each of those starts. Ober has one complete game and 17 quality starts this season.
When the Guardians win, they win by an average of 3.3 runs per game, but when they lose, they lose by an average of 3.2 runs per game. Their overall run line record is 77-75, and they are 36-38 against the run line at home. They are 41-37 against the run line on the road. As the favorite, they are 44-50 against the run line, and as the underdog, they are 33-25.
Cleveland is sending Tanner Bibee to the mound today vs. the Twins, and he will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Rays. In that start, he took the loss, giving up three earned runs in six innings of work. Looking back over his last three outings, Bibee has finished with a no-decision, a win, and a loss. His ERA for the season is 3.60, along with a record of 11-8. Opponents are batting .229 off Bibee this season, and his WHIP is 1.14. So far, he has made 29 starts, 10 of which were quality starts.
Twins vs. Guardians Pick: Twins ML -101
With the Twins going off at -101 on the money line, that is the route we recommend taking in this one. Our predicted final score is 5-4 in favor of the Twins, and at -101, there is some good value in picking them up to get the win.
Looking at some potential player props, Tanner Bibee is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which is 14th among starters. As for Bailey Ober, he is projected to finish with five K’s, which has him 17th.
