Twins vs Guardians Prediction & MLB Odds For Thursday, September 19th
Cleveland and Minnesota are set to face off in an AL Central matchup at 1:10 PM ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland. The Guardians are 88-65 and they are first in the AL Central, while the Twins are 80-72 and they are third in the division.
The over/under line is currently at 8.5 runs, and the Guardians are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -114 compared to the Twins at -104. Thursday’s starting pitching matchup features Simeon Woods Richardson for the Twins and Joey Cantillo for the Guardians. This game can be seen on BSN.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Twins -1.5 (+152) | Guardians 1.5 (-191)
- Total: 8.5
- MoneyLine: Twins -104 | Guardians -114
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Twins vs. Guardians Prediction: Moneyline
Cleveland picked up a 5-4 win over the Twins in the most recent game of this series. The Guardians had a two-run lead heading into the 10th inning, and the Twins could only muster two runs in the bottom half of the inning. Heading into the game, the Guardians were favored at -130 on the money line.
Tanner Bibee got the start for Cleveland, going just 6 2/3 innings while giving up two runs and striking out five. He did pick up a win in the game. Hunter Gaddis got the win out of the bullpen, and Ronny Henriquez took the loss for Minnesota.
Carlos Correa went 3/5 with four RBIs, but it came in a losing effort. Josh Naylor had a two-home run game for the Guardians.
Minnesota is 80-72 overall this season, and they are 3rd in the AL Central, 7.5 games behind the Guardians for the division lead. The Twins trail the Guardians in the division and are 29-22 in AL Central games this year. So far, they have gone 42-33 at home and 38-39 on the road.
As the road favorite, the Twins have gone 28-16 this season, and they are 63-42 overall as the favorite. Minnesota has struggled as the underdog, going 17-30 this year. The Twins’ overall series record is 26-17-4, but they are currently losing their series vs. the Guardians.
Cleveland comes into today’s game vs. the Twins leading the AL Central by six games. The Guardians are 88-65 overall and have gone 29-22 against other teams in the AL Central. The Guardians have been good at home this year, putting together a record of 47-28. On the road, they are 41-37 this season.
So far, the Guardians have been good as the favorite, going 62-33, and they are 26-32 as the underdog. As the home underdog, they have gone 6-7 this year, and they are 26-15-6 in series this year. The Guardians have gone 7-3 across their last 10 games overall.
Twins vs. Guardians Prediction: Over/Under
When the Minnesota Twins are on the road, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, and their games have averaged 9.1 runs per game this season. Overall, the over/under record for the Twins is 77-69, and when the line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 24-22. The average over/under line for Twins games this season has been set at 8 runs, and only 9.2% of their games have had higher lines than today’s 8.5-run total.
Carlos Santana has been the Twins’ most consistent power hitter this season, as he leads the team with 22 home runs and 65 RBIs. He has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/32 in his last eight games, with two homers and five RBIs. Willi Castro and Ryan Jeffers are also near the top of the Twins’ home run and RBI leaderboards, with 12 and 20 homers, respectively.
As a team, the Twins are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 11th in the league. They have been a slightly better home team in terms of scoring, averaging 4.9 runs per game. Overall, they are 7th in batting average and have the 8th best slugging percentage in the league.
The Cleveland Guardians have an over/under record of 67-75 this season, and their games have averaged 8.3 runs per game. When the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, their record is 20-20. Overall, 29 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, which accounts for 19.0% of their games this season.
Heading into today’s game, the Guardians are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 14th in the league. At home, they have been even better, putting up 4.7 runs per contest (9th in the MLB). As a team, they are batting .238, which is 14th in the league, and are also one of the better teams at not striking out, as they have the 4th fewest strikeouts in the league.
Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor have been the team’s top power threats this season, as Ramirez’s 35 homers is 7th in the league, and Naylor is right behind him with 31 homers. Ramirez is also on an 11-game hitting streak. Naylor has also been hot of late, going 6/19 in his last five games with two homers.
Twins vs. Guardians Prediction: Spread
Minnesota is 39-38 against the run line on the road this season, including covering in their last two games. Their overall run line record is 71-81, with an average run margin of +0.2 runs per game. They are 46-59 against the run line as the favorite and 25-22 as the underdog.
Right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson gets the start for the Twins today as he faces the Guardians on the road. He has made 26 starts this season and has a record of 5-5 with an ERA of 4.08. Woods Richardson’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.25, and he has issued an average of 3.23 walks per nine innings compared to 7.66 strikeouts. The last time he pitched, he took the loss, giving up three earned runs in three innings of work. Before that outing, he had given up two earned runs in three straight starts.
When the Guardians win, they do so by an average of 3.3 runs per game, while their average run differential in losses is -3.2. Their overall run line record is 77-76, and they have been a better bet on the road, going 41-37 compared to 36-39 at home. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 33-25 compared to 44-51 as the favorite.
Joey Cantillo has made six starts this year and has a record of 2-3 for the Guardians. His ERA for the season is 4.99, along with a WHIP of 1.17. Cantillo’s last outing came on September 14th vs. the Rays, where he picked up the win, going five innings and not giving up a run. In that outing, he gave up six hits, three walks, and didn’t allow a homer. Before that, he had given up at least one homer in three straight outings. Cantillo’s ERA on the road is 7.48 compared to 2.25 at home.
Twins vs. Guardians Pick: Twins ML -104
We see the Twins coming away with a 5-4 road win over the Guardians. Given that the Twins are currently at -104 on the money line, this is our recommended bet for this game.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Joey Cantillo finishing with seven strikeouts compared to Simeon Woods Richardson with five. However, Cantillo is projected to finish with the second-most earned runs among today’s starters.
