Twins vs Guardians Prediction & MLB Odds For Monday, September 16th
Matthew Boyd and the Guardians will look to keep their winning streak alive on Monday, as they are hosting the Twins at Progressive Field in Cleveland. Boyd is facing a Twins team that is 79-70 overall, and they are starting Pablo Lopez.
The Guardians are currently 1st in the AL Central, while the Twins are 3rd in the division. Minnesota is favored on the money line today, and the over/under line is sitting at 7.5 runs. This AL Central matchup can be seen on BSGL.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Twins -1.5 (+150) | Guardians 1.5 (-184)
- Total: 7.5
- MoneyLine: Twins -112 | Guardians -106
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Twins vs. Guardians Prediction: Moneyline
The Twins’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Reds, closing out their series with a 9-2 win. After allowing two runs to the Reds in the top of the 4th, the Twins responded with three runs of their own. Minnesota went on to add another six runs in the 6th inning.
Cole Sands was excellent for the Twins, going six innings and giving up just two runs on three hits. He only had three strikeouts in the outing and got the win.
Minnesota is 79-70 overall and 3rd in the AL Central, 6.5 games behind the Guardians for the division lead. So far, they have gone 28-20 against other teams in the AL Central. The Twins will be on the road for today’s game vs. the Guardians, and they are 37-37 on the road compared to 42-33 at home.
As the favorite, the Twins have gone 63-41 this year and 16-29 as the underdog. Minnesota lost the final two games of their series vs. the Reds and are just 4-6 over their last 10. So far, they have an overall series record of 26-17-4.
The Guardians’s offense was carried by Angel Martinez in their most recent game vs. the Rays. Martinez went 2/3 with a run scored and a stolen base. The Guardians only scored two runs but picked up the json as the Rays went scoreless. Cleveland was the -126 favorite at home going into the game.
Ben Lively started for the Guardians, going five innings and not giving up a run. He only had two strikeouts in the outing and got the win. Emmanuel Clase picked up the save out of the bullpen.
Cleveland is hosting the Twins today with an overall record of 86-64, which has them leading the AL Central by four games. The Guardians are currently on a two-game winning streak, which came in the final two games of their series vs. the Rays. So far, they are 27-21 in AL Central matchups.
At home, the Guardians are 45-27 this season, and they are just above .500 at 41-37 on the road. As the underdog, Cleveland is 25-32 this season, and they are 5-7 as the home underdog. When favored, the Guardians have gone 61-32 this season, and their overall record as the favorite is 26-15-6.
Twins vs. Guardians Prediction: Over/Under
The Minnesota Twins are on the road against the Cleveland Guardians today. The over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The Twins have an over/under record of 76-67 this season, and their games have averaged a combined 9.2 runs per game. The over has hit in five straight games for Minnesota, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs this season.
Carlos Santana has been swinging a hot bat of late for the Twins, going 8/18 in his last five games with two homers and five RBIs. For the season, he is batting .243 with a team-high 22 home runs. Ryan Jeffers and Willi Castro are 2nd and 3rd on the team in RBIs, with 62 and 55, respectively. Jeffers has 20 homers, while Castro has gone deep 11 times.
As a team, the Twins are averaging 4.7 runs per game and are 5th in the league in home runs. Overall, they are batting .249, which is 9th in the MLB right now. Minnesota is also among the league leaders in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS.
The Cleveland Guardians have played to the under in four straight games, and their games have averaged 8.4 runs per game this season. Their over/under record is 66-73, and their games have had an average line of 8 runs. When the line is set at 7.5 runs, their over/under record is 17-20. The Guardians have had 105 games with higher lines than 7.5 runs, accounting for 70.0% of their games this season.
Jose Ramirez has been on a tear of late for the Guardians, going 6/20 in his last five games with four runs scored and an RBI. He also comes into the game on an eight-game hitting streak. Overall, Ramirez is hitting .272 with 35 home runs and 107 RBIs, which is 3rd in the league. Josh Naylor is also a power threat in the lineup, as he is 11th in the league with 29 homers.
As a team, the Guardians are averaging 4.5 runs per game and are one of the best teams in the league at avoiding strikeouts. However, they have the worst BABIP in the league and are batting just .238 for the season. Cleveland is also just 17th in on-base percentage and 16th in slugging.
Twins vs. Guardians Prediction: Spread
Minnesota has been a solid run line bet on the road this season, going 37-37 against the run line. However, the Twins have failed to cover in their last five road games. Minnesota has been a better run line bet at home, going 32-43 against the run line. The Twins’ average run margin this season is +0.2 runs per game.
Pablo López has been pitching very well for the Twins, as he has won his last four starts. Most recently, he faced off against the Angels and picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up four earned runs. Before that outing, he had three straight starts in which he didn’t give up an earned run. Lopez’s record for the season is 15-8, and his ERA is 3.88. For the year, he has made 29 starts, and opponents are batting .240 off him this season. Lopez’s WHIP for the season is 1.13.
The Guardians have been a solid bet against the run line this season, going 76-74 overall. They have been better on the road, where they have a 41-37 run line record compared to 35-37 at home. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 32-25 against the run line in those games. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.3, while it drops to -3.2 in losses.
Through six starts, Matthew Boyd has a record of 2-1 and an ERA of 2.18 for the Guardians. He has made three quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he didn’t allow a homer. Boyd has given up a homer in three of his last four starts. In his most recent outing, he went 4 1/3 innings, giving up one earned run, and nine strikeouts. Boyd finished with a no-decision in that outing. Opponents are batting .181 off Boyd this year. So far, he has an ERA of 1.56 at home compared to 2.88 on the road.
Twins vs. Guardians Pick: Guardians ML -106
Our prediction for this Twins vs. Guardians matchup is to take the Guardians on the money line at -106. We have the Guardians winning this one by a final score of 6-5. With the over/under sitting at 7.5 runs, you could also look to take the over in this one.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Matthew Boyd finishing with six strikeouts compared to Pablo Lopez with five. Boyd is also projected to go fewer innings than Lopez, but he does have a better chance of picking up the win.
