Tigers vs Padres Prediction & MLB Odds For Wednesday, September 4th
Yu Darvish and the Padres will host the Tigers today at 9:40 PM ET at PETCO Park in San Diego. The over/under line is at 7.5 runs, and the Padres are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -192. Detroit has a money line payout of +161, and they are 4th in the AL Central with a record of 70-69.
BSDET will be televising today’s Tigers vs. Padres matchup, and Keider Montero will be on the mound for Detroit. The Padres are 79-61 overall and they are 2nd in the NL West. San Diego is currently on a two-game winning streak.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Tigers 1.5 (-137) | Padres -1.5 (+113)
- Total: 7.5
- MoneyLine: Tigers +161 | Padres -192
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Tigers vs. Padres Prediction: Moneyline
San Diego cruised to a 3-0 win over the Tigers in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a huge 8th inning, scoring two of their three runs and picking up four of their seven hits. As for the Tigers, they had just one hit in the 2nd inning and didn’t have another baserunner until the 8th.
Joe Musgrove started for the Padres and picked up the win, going six innings and not giving up a run. He finished the game with eight strikeouts but issued two walks. Tyler Holton only went two innings for the Tigers, giving up one hit and no earned runs.
Luis Arraez scored two of the Padres’ three runs while going 2/4 with an RBI. Mason McCoy also had a two-hit game and scored a run for San Diego’s offense.
Detroit is 70-69 overall this season, and they are 10 games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead. So far, they have gone 24-22 against other teams in the AL Central. The Tigers are on the road today, and they are 35-35 on the road compared to 35-34 at home.
The Tigers have been playing well lately, going 7-3 over their last 10 games. As the underdog, Detroit has an overall record of 38-47, which includes dropping three straight as the underdog. They are 32-22 when favored this year, and their overall series record is 20-19-5. Detroit has won three straight series.
San Diego is 79-61 overall this season, and they trail the Dodgers by 5.5 games in the NL West. The Padres have gone 20-20 in divisional games this year and have won two straight games overall. Their two-game winning streak comes after dropping four straight.
At home, the Padres are 38-32 this season and 41-29 on the road. As the favorite, the Padres are 50-37 this year and 29-24 as the underdog. San Diego’s overall series record is 27-14-5, and they are winning their current series vs. the Tigers 1-0.
Tigers vs. Padres Prediction: Over/Under
The Detroit Tigers have played in a high-scoring game in 61.2% of their games this season, with an average combined run total of 8.3 runs per game. Their over/under record for the season is 69-66, and their over/under record when the line is set at 7.5 runs is 20-18. Detroit has gone under the total in their last three games, and today’s over/under line is set at 7.5 runs.
Over the past 10 games, Spencer Torkelson has been swinging a hot bat for the Tigers, going 10/37 with three home runs. Zach McKinstry has also been swinging a hot bat, going 11/24 in his last eight games. For the season, Riley Greene leads the Tigers with 20 home runs and 58 RBIs, while batting .258. Matt Vierling is 2nd on the team in homers, with 15, and is batting .261.
As a team, the Tigers are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 22nd in the league. They are also near the bottom of the league in batting average, on-base percentage, and OPS. Detroit’s collective batting average is just .233. Currently, Greene is on a three-game hitting streak.
The Padres are playing at home today against the Tigers. The O/U line is set at 7.5 runs, which is lower than their combined average of 9.0 runs per game. San Diego has played 83 games with O/U lines higher than 7.5 runs, and their O/U record for the season is 75-63.
San Diego comes into the game with the league’s best batting average at .265 and are also the top team in terms of avoiding strikeouts. Overall, they are 8th in the league in runs scored (4.8 per game) and have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. The Padres are also near the top of the league in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS.
Manny Machado has been the Padres’ top power threat this season, as his 23 homers are the best on the team and 14th in the league. He is also 1st on the team with 84 RBIs and is currently on a four-game hitting streak. Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill are tied for 2nd on the team with 21 homers, and Profar has the team’s best on-base percentage at .382.
Tigers vs. Padres Prediction: Spread
The Tigers have been a solid bet against the run line on the road this season, going 43-27. They have an average run margin of +0.4 runs per game on the road and have covered the run line in three straight games as the underdog. Overall, they are 72-67 against the run line this season and have an average run margin of +0.1 runs per game.
Tigers starter Keider Montero will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Angels, as he took the loss in that start. Against the Angels, he gave up three earned runs in five innings of work. Looking back over his last four starts, Montero has finished with a no-decision, win, and then a loss in his most recent outing. The right-hander has a record of 4-6 and an ERA of 5.17. Opposing batters are hitting .255 off Montero this season. So far, he has made 12 starts, three of which were quality starts.
San Diego has been a solid team to back on the run line this season, going 72-68 overall. They have been particularly good on the run line on the road, going 44-26. They have been a good bet as the underdog, going 36-17 on the run line, compared to 36-51 as the favorite.
Yu Darvish will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing against the Marlins, where he took the loss and gave up two earned runs in three innings of work. In that start, he gave up one homer. Before that outing, he had won two straight starts and didn’t give up a run in either of those outings. Darvish has made 11 starts this year and has a record of 4-3 with a 3.19 ERA. Opponents are batting .210 off the right-hander this season. Per nine innings, Darvish is averaging 8.47 strikeouts and 2.4 walks.
Tigers vs. Padres Pick: Over 7.5 Runs -122
We do see the Padres picking up a win in this one, but with their money line sitting at -192, we don’t see a ton of value there. Instead, we are predicting this one to go over the 7.5 run line, and you can get the over at -122.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we do have Yu Darvish finishing with more strikeouts than Keider Montero. Darvish is projected to finish with eight K’s, and Montero is at six.
