Tigers vs Padres Prediction & MLB Odds For Thursday, September 5th
Casey Mize gets the start for the Tigers, as they are on the road to face the Padres, who are 80-61 and on a three-game winning streak. Martín Pérez is starting for the Padres, and they are the heavy favorites on the money line (-155). The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.
The forecast for Thursday’s matchup calls for clear skies and temperatures in the mid-80s. The game is being played at 8:40 PM ET from PETCO Park in San Diego. BSDET will be televising this one, and the Tigers are +130 on the money line compared to the Padres at -155.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Tigers 1.5 (-163) | Padres -1.5 (+135)
- Total: 8.5
- MoneyLine: Tigers +130 | Padres -155
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Tigers vs. Padres Prediction: Moneyline
San Diego picked up a 6-5 win over the Tigers in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a late rally, scoring one run in the 5th and then picking up the game-winning run in the 10th. Heading into the game, the Padres were favored at -198 on the money line.
Detroit wasted a good outing from Keider Montero, as he gave up just two earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work. Jason Foley took the loss for the Tigers out of the bullpen. Jeremiah Estrada got the win for the Padres out of the bullpen, and Yu Darvish went just 2 2/3 innings, giving up three earned runs.
Offensively, the Padres were led by Jackson Merrill, who went 3/5 with a home run. Fernando Tatis Jr. also had two hits and scored a run for San Diego. As for the Tigers, Matt Vierling went 2/5 with a homer.
Detroit is at an even 70-70 as they take on the Padres today, and they are looking to avoid dropping their third straight game. The Tigers are 4th in the AL Central, and they trail the Guardians by 10 games in the division. So far, they have gone 24-22 against other teams in the AL Central.
As the road team today, the Tigers are 35-36 this season. They have been slightly better at home, going 35-34. Detroit has won three straight series, and their overall series record is 20-19-5 this year. As the underdog, the Tigers are 38-48 this year, and they are 32-22 when favored. Detroit has dropped four straight games as the underdog.
With an overall record of 80-61, the Padres are 4.5 games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. San Diego has won three straight games, and they have gone 7-3 over their last 10. So far, they are just .500 in divisional games, going 20-20.
At home, the Padres are 39-32 this year and 41-29 on the road. As the favorite, the Padres are 51-37 and 29-24 as the underdog. San Diego has won three straight games as the favorite, and their overall series record is 27-14-5.
Tigers vs. Padres Prediction: Over/Under
The Detroit Tigers are on the road to face the San Diego Padres today. The over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The Tigers have played to an over/under record of 70-66 this season, with an average combined run average of 8.3 runs per game. When the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, their record is 13-14. Overall, 24 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, accounting for 17.1% of their games played.
Heading into today’s game, the Tigers are averaging just 4.2 runs per game, which is 22nd in the league. They have been even worse at home, averaging just 4.1 runs per game. As a team, they are batting just .233, and their on-base percentage of .296 is also near the bottom of the league. Detroit’s team OPS of .683 is 23rd in the MLB.
Riley Greene is the Tigers’ top power threat this season, as he has 20 home runs, which is the best mark on the team. However, he is batting just .256 for the season and has hit just .172 over his last eight games. Matt Vierling has been swinging a better bat of late, going 9/29 in his last eight games, and is batting .262 for the season.
The San Diego Padres are at home today against the Detroit Tigers with an over/under line of 8.5 runs. The Padres have a combined run average of 9.0 runs per game this season. Their over/under record for the year is 76-63, and their average over/under line is 8 runs. When the line has been set at 8.5 runs, their record is 18-15. Overall, 25 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, which accounts for 17.7% of their games this season.
Currently, the Padres have the best team batting average in the league at .265, and they are also the top home run hitting team in the league. Overall, they are averaging 4.8 runs per game and have been even better on the road, where they are averaging 5.1 runs per contest. San Diego is also the league’s top team in terms of fewest strikeouts per game.
Over his last six games, Jackson Merrill has gone 9/24 with three homers and seven RBIs. For the season, he is batting .294 with 22 homers, which is 2nd on the team. Manny Machado is the Padres’ top home run hitter this season and is batting .273. Machado is also on a five-game hitting streak.
Tigers vs. Padres Prediction: Spread
The Tigers have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 73-67 overall. They have been especially profitable on the road, where they are 44-27 against the run line. They have an average run margin of 0.1 runs per game, but that number jumps to 0.4 on the road. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 54-32 against the run line in those games.
Casey Mize will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Red Sox, as he finished with a no-decision in the outing. Against the Red Sox, he gave up four earned runs in six innings of work. Looking back over his last four starts, Mize has finished with a no-decision in three of them. His record for the season is 2-6, and his ERA is 4.36. Mize has made five quality starts this year and is averaging 6.59 strikeouts per nine innings. For the season, he has allowed eight homers and is averaging 2.34 walks per nine innings.
San Diego has been a solid run line bet this season, going 72-69 overall. They are 44-26 on the run line on the road, where they have a scoring margin of +1.1 runs per game. The Padres are 36-17 on the run line as an underdog, but just 28-43 at home.
Left-hander Martín Pérez gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Tigers at home. So far this season, he has made 22 starts and has a record of 4-5 with a 4.71 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Perez has a WHIP of 1.53 and has issued 3.3 walks per nine innings compared to 7.14 strikeouts. Perez has turned in seven quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he allowed four earned runs in five innings of work. In that outing, he gave up three walks and one homer. Perez didn’t allow a homer in the three outings before that.
Tigers vs. Padres Pick: Padres ML -155
Our prediction for today’s Tigers vs. Padres matchup is to take the Padres on the money line at -155. We have the Padres winning this one by a score of 6-5. With the payout for a Padres win being -155, we see this as a great value pick.
Looking at some potential props, you could look to the home runs market, as we have the Padres finishing with the fourth-most home runs in the league today. As for the Tigers, they are projected to finish with the seventh-most runs in the league today.
